Nop

Day order flow trader #BTC #alt
moneymoneymoneymoneymoneymoney

[Nop @love_botter]

@0285900k 本当におめでとう人生上げてこう

[Nik Algo @nik_algo]

This was $ALICE yesterday, before doing another 30% leg up in 5 hours

The main part you should notice is a shift in liquidity and limit order placement after the volatility spike

There's an easier way to visualise this shift...

Watch the DOM indicator at the bottom, it shows aggregated liquidity in the orderbook 10% away from the current price.

You can see the imbalance between bid and ask orders, which is pretty common when someone is pushing the price

Plus you can see:
- rise in open interest
- highlighted price and volume manipulation
- increase in orderflow intensity (tape speed)

All of this is closely related to the actions of an affiliated market maker, but that's a story for another time

The total move was ~40% up within one day

[CoinCollege∛🌻 @CoinCollegeTK]

BTCもETHも、インプライドボラが溶け始めています。

これまでは、根強いカバードコール由来のボラ売り圧力を、地政学リスクを警戒したプット買いがある程度吸収していましたが、後者の需要が減退したことで、需給のバランスが崩れてきました。。。

[ぶふじに @bufujini]

時系列でやっていくと大量のゴミを先出しすることになりそうなので、一旦まともそうなものから

超高頻度(HFT)botの一例｜bufujini @bufujini https://t.co/TJTUiFrQQS

[Wu Blockchain @WuBlockchain]

Study Finds Signs of Manipulation in Bitcoin Bets on World’s Largest Prediction Market

Researchers from Stanford University and Singapore Management University found signs of settlement manipulation in Polymarket’s popular five-minute Bitcoin prediction markets. After analyzing roughly two months of trading data, the study found that some traders placed concentrated one-sided spot orders on Binance in the final seconds before settlement, briefly pushing Bitcoin’s reference price toward the outcome they had backed before prices quickly reversed. The paper identified 821 likely manipulators who earned about USD 8.2 million in affected markets, with retail traders bearing most of the losses.

[jim @jimtalbot]

ooooo im retracing

[Loris @0xLoris]

imo the best heuristic for force-ranking real economic activity on a crypto venue

is actually *liquidations*

1) the incentive for the exchanges to fake it is absent, as opposed to volume or OI which are headline metrics

2) the incentive is also absent for users - nobody wants to get liquidated, no fee benefits / rebates, indicative of real loss

by this metric, HL (+XYZ) actually ranks 2nd, with $63.9mm in 24h liquidations, which is 40% more than bybit's $45.6mm (binance comfortably in 1st with $567mm, which is still underreported)

it's not perfect, the feeds vary in completeness and quality, not all venues provide it, etc

but if you want a quick at-a-glance ranking of where users are trading, take a look at liquidations

[Nop @love_botter]

期末試験期間のため一旦お休み

[Exotick @Exoticktrades]

https://t.co/6DtcIgvA6z

[Nop @love_botter]

先週の8日のダイバ以降

[Nop @love_botter]

先走りバイビオーケーどうでしょうか

[Nop @love_botter]

うんこすぎるしマジでうんこどこでもうんこ‼️

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

good rule of thumb is if you see a trading edge being discussed on the feed it usually means one of two things:

1. the edge has been diluted to shit beyond profitability
2. your attempt to replicate what you see IS the edge for the poster

from my experience the most +EV trading comes from doing what no one else is doing

and shutting the fuck up while doing so until it no longer works at which point you can write up a neat little thread to fulfill your basic human need for soft clout

the obvious exception to this rule is if you're trying to farm unsuspecting sheep. which is pretty disgusting but game is game and its a type of trade on its own

as a quick afterthought: i think the onus is on the platforms/launchpads to protect their users from this type of factory belt slaughter. people are going to take advantage of inefficiencies in the market if they exist. if there is money to be easily extracted, it will be extracted. the financial world does not abide by the morals of the ethical man

the issue is that there very little incentive in protecting your users when a significant chunk of your revenue and users come from this behavior. until someone is willing to take the first leap to sacrifice money for a healthier ecosystem, im afraid on-chain will continue to be a cesspool of survivorship bias sidelined by legions of fallen soldiers

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

as most traders know, the best trades are generally ones that show profit right away

but instead of exercising discipline and cutting trades early, most traders just let the market invalidate them by hitting their stop

knowing the above fact, why not cut trades early?

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

theres only 2 things more painful than roundtripping

1. letting a position go deep into the red. babying it like its your firstborn on the verge of death from measles. watching it finally show life and cheering it on as it taps your breakeven entry. then deciding not to close at breakeven out of hubris. and watching it roundtrip all the gains back into deep red. except this time even deeper.

2. roundtripping a position entirely to breakeven. choosing not to cut it at breakeven out of spite. watching it swing into the red the same % move that you roundtripped. double psychological rape.

always be closing

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

i love the hl eco but the venue i do most of my volume is by far lighter

there's really no second best if you're trading LTF

tradfi traders spend so much time and energy negotiating lower fees with their brokers and we have a 0 fee platform that doesn't even require you to make an account

attached: how much i would've paid trading elsewhere in the last 24hrs

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

if you're serious about improving as a low timeframe trader i'll drop some alpha:

1. download OBS
2. record your trading sessions (in their entirety)
3. review the video on 4x speed at the end of the session and journal things you did right/wrong
4. use my ref link

ur welcome

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

after trading for more than 4 years, i have accumulated a wealth of actionable insights gained from top traders, mentors, and my own experience

i've compiled these insights into bite-sized trading tips which you can use to accelerate your trading journey

a thread 🧵 👇

[Nop @love_botter]

naked tick charts

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

i've learned many lessons this year but one easily stands above the rest. one i feel like was under my nose my for a long time

the greatest indicator i've seen for figuring out if you're doing the right thing in trading (or anything else for that matter) has been not doing what everyone else is doing

if you want to be exceptional (and you have to be to generate consistent returns) you cannot be doing what everyone else is doing. they are an antithesis to one another

when i reflect on some of the best traders i've encountered on CT, they have all had certain first principles in common but were ultimately very unique in their personal approach to the markets. all of them were 'the best' in their own category. and almost all of them arrived to that position through a journey entirely constructed on their own

in 2021-2023 i made most of my returns scalping altcoin perps using naked tick charts. for me, they painted a picture of microstructure that i had not been able to find any other way. before finding this edge for myself, i did not see a single trader using this approach. i was called retarded and a gambler for much of this time - which definitely created self-doubt. but looking back, its clear that part of my success came from the decision to do something different

for the last few weeks, i've been trading crypto up/down markets on polymarket using a DOM interface. an edge i found on my own in an attempt to take advantage of a growing set of traders vibe coding highly inefficient bots you see all over the timeline

i find my self in a similar position as last time. again, it probably sounds stupid and impractical at the surface level. and also again, i haven't seen anyone do anything similar

is the edge large and persistent enough for massive returns? who knows. but the point is the journey of finding something that works for yourself. entirely on your own

replicating what you already see will almost never work. you need your own secret sauce

merry xmas

i wish you all success in your own journeys in the new year

[VKTR @0xVKTR]

a great trader could probably completely randomize their entries (coin flip whether to enter or not, another coin flip to determine long or short) and only have control over their position management (add, remove, close)

and they would still out-trade you