Alex Mayhew

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@cryptorover He is full of crap

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@cryptorover All my coins

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@Altcoinbuzzio Ondo

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@Peter_thoc But little Timmy can sometimes get it right by accident. No guarantees right?

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

A final Bitcoin top in mid-2026? And Oct 6th as a sub-top?

Hear me out, as I didn't expect to be discussing this with any seriousness.

It is looking increasingly plausible. It would catch *many* people off guard.

Why do I think it looks increasingly plausible? Bitcoin's slow, gradual stair-step cycle thus far with no euphoric top and super low sentiment would be a truly interesting way to end a cycle. It would, thus, logically suggest that if the bull run wasn't violent in the upward direction, the bear market might not be as violent or as long-lived in the downward direction.

That's the concept here-- lowered volatility from prior bull runs, essentially, and how that might play out.

Just to be VERY CLEAR, when I say I think this scenario is "increasingly plausible", I would have given this scenario a 5% chance a few months ago. Now, after we have more data, I give it a 15% chance. I want to be very clear on the low odds I'm talking about. But it's an increase nonetheless, and thus why I'm bringing it up.

I currently give these odds to how Bitcoin's cycle may play out:
A. [55%] final top in late December or Jan 2026.
B. [30%] we're already in a bear market.
C. [15%] final top in mid-to-late 2026.

- Analysis of BTC current price action -

BTC has clearly been cooling off. It's losing momentum. It's having difficulty propelling into the next leg of the bull run. HOWEVER, It *is* still holding the 50 week moving average, so technically everything is okay until it closes below that at least 2 weeks in a row. But it's a tightrope walk currently, and I don't think anyone would deny that.

If BTC DOES propel and blast off into new ATHs by the end of the year, or in January, then disregard this entire post and that likely will be the top.

There is also a chance we are simply entering a bear market. I give that 30% right now. That percent would increase if we don't see meaningful positive price action by December, or if we get 2 closes below the 50 week MA.

I still think the base case is a top in late 2025 or early 2026 [a 55% chance].

Please read this post with a casual mindset. I am exploring ideas here. But I do observe the cycle is progressing in an interesting manner (the slow, gradual stair-step cycle, with no euphoric top, super low sentiment, and difficulty [so far] of making another leg up). Thus I want to evaluate all possible outcomes, and I wanted to start talking about it as soon as it felt relevant to do so.

It's important to keep one's finger on the pulse of things as we progress. Holding a rigid, unchanging perspective is not advisable with markets.

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

Gold vs BTC

Gold tends to lead Bitcoin. In the following chart gold has been shifted forward by 80 days.

If (and I mean if) BTC decides to follow gold's move, this would be a pretty sweet November and December, with a top potentially in late December or January (whenever gold stops its climb, which will probably be soon based on the gold chart's current steepness and euphoric sentiment surrounding gold. See here: https://t.co/7P6wdMm5MT).

I find it difficult to believe that gold, archaic and globally saturated as it is, could experience such a big move with Bitcoin not following (or even outpacing it).

I find this Gold vs BTC chart interesting because BTC hasn't yet followed the monstrous move up by gold, when it generally does. It could be an explosion waiting to happen. It would also serve to somewhat catch BTC back up with Global M2 (not pictured).

If you want to know about Global M2 vs BTC, my post from August stands, until otherwise stated. Please read here: https://t.co/ge7hyb80el

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@RilakNak Fake

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@tarsprotocol Great job guys !

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@Steph_iscrypto ?

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@CryptoGeekNews How sure are you percentage wise?

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@majeed66224499 I asked ChatGPT the exact same thing, it said: Based on realistic assumptions, my estimated XRP price range is:
•Low case: $10 per XRP
•Mid case: $50–$250 per XRP
•High case (mass adoption): $500+ per XRP

.

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@majeed66224499 Err

[Alex Mayhew @lovespacechick]

@rovercrc Xrp