Laco

interested in #options #investing #momentum #strategy #speculating #futures #trading #hedging #vol #commodity #macro

[Polymarket Sports @PolymarketSport]

🚨BREAKING: Ronaldo & Messi are ready for Polymarket's 'Worst Cup' tonight to kick off the World Cup...

‘The Worst Cup’ streaming on Polymarket U.S app and https://t.co/xotdLdJZLw at 6:30pm est

[Laco @lranchev]

🤦‍♂️

ChatGPT can’t decide which days have D… https://t.co/IrZ4vdcEil via @YouTube

[Bespoke @bespokeinvest]

UPDATE:

Nasdaq at 858 days after Netscape's release in Dec. 1994: +155%

Nasdaq at 858 days after ChatGPT's release in Nov. 2022: +129%

[Wonder of Science @wonderofscience]

Baby barn owl hears thunder for the first time.

📽: Robert E Fuller

[The Great Martis @great_martis]

😂

[Markets & Mayhem @Mayhem4Markets]

"The US dollar isn't backed by anything"

The dollar's backing:

[Historic Vids @historyinmemes]

This is how Saudi Arabia plans to build “The Line” megaproject.

[Steve-O @SteveOweathaguy]

Wow. Someone posted this one.

1. February 6, 1978 weather map.
2. February 23rd 2026 weather map.

This is insane,

Almost a mirror image.

[Connor Bates @ConnorJBates_]

Price is the only thing that pays.

Where you buy and where you sell is what decides your P&L.

The story and your conviction matter, but you can’t fight the only thing that pays: price.

Strong opinions, loosely held.

[Tansu Yegen @TansuYegen]

In just one year, they have evolved from robots to "humans".

2025&2026 Chinese Spring Festival Gala

[Laco @lranchev]

@grok @MenthorQpro @themarketear Are the volatility levels for Korean equities high or low currently compared to history?

[Deirdre Bosa @dee_bosa]

this is a wild chart. 15 years of near-perfect correlation between the NDX and software (IGV)...now the widest divergence on record

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

For Silver bulls
When price goes up it is destiny
When price goes down it is manipulation
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

🇨🇳SHFE Implements Trading Restrictions on 16 Customers
On January 26, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) identified 16 customers across 3 groups suspected of failing to declare actual control relationships in tin and silver futures trading. In accordance with regulations, SHFE has decided to impose a one-month restriction on new positions and limit withdrawals for these customers in the affected futures products. 
https://t.co/NfEM6jZLSp

[OG Tin Baron @OG_TINBARON]

#SHFE trying to pop the #tin price… let the free market decide I reckon!!

[Le Shrub🌳 @agnostoxxx]

Will delete if wrong

[Terel Miles - Freedom Stocks @FreedomStocks]

🚨🇨🇳 CHINA JUST BROKE THE #SILVER MARKET 🇨🇳 🚨

If you own silver this is a MUST read!!!

Here's what nobody is telling you about January 1st, 2026.

Starting New Year's Day, #China is restricting physical silver exports.

Not slowing them. Not taxing them. Restricting them.
And the price action we're seeing right now? It's not a glitch. It's a warning shot.

Let me walk you through what's happening in REAL TIME —because this might be the biggest structural shift in precious metals markets we've seen in a generation.

THE IMPOSSIBLE PRICE GAP:

🎄🎅Today, on Christmas Eve, Shanghai closed physical silver at $77.89 per ounce.

At the exact same time, #COMEX—the Western "benchmark" for silver—was trading at $72.23.
That's a $5.66 spread.

To put that in perspective: historically, this gap rarely exceeds $2. Why? Because arbitrage traders instantly exploit any difference. Buy cheap in one market, sell high in another. Rinse, repeat. The gap closes in minutes.

But when a $5.66 premium persists for hours—on a half-day trading session no less—something fundamental has broken.

The arbitrage machine is DEAD.

And it's DEAD because the physical metal cannot move the way it used to.

WHAT SHANGHAI'S PRICE ACTUALLY MEANS:

Let me clarify something crucial: China isn't "overpaying" for silver.

Shanghai's $78/oz price reflects what silver costs when you need actual metal delivered to your vault—not a contract, not a promise, not a cash settlement.

The #Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) operates on physical delivery. When Chinese manufacturers need silver for solar panels, EVs, or electronics, they pay Shanghai prices.

That's REAL demand meeting REAL supply.
COMEX? That's a different animal entirely.

COMEX futures are:

🔹Heavily leveraged paper contracts.
🔹Mostly cash-settled.
🔹Rarely result in actual delivery.

When you see $72/oz on COMEX, you're looking at the price of a derivative—a bet on silver's price, not the actual metal itself.

Shanghai's premium isn't irrational exuberance. It's the cost of scarcity.

THE VAULT EXODUS IS ACCELERATING:

While markets were winding down for the holidays, the metal was moving out.

COMEX registered (available for delivery) silver inventories just posted sharp declines:

🔹Asahi: -1.42 million oz.
🔹JPMorgan: -597,993 oz.
🔹CNT Depository: -228,780 oz.

Total registered standing: 127.2 million ounces.

For context, global silver demand runs approximately 1.2 billion ounces annually. COMEX registered represents roughly 10% of annual consumption.

And it's draining.

This isn't volatility. This isn't seasonal adjustment.

This is what a modern bank run looks like—except instead of people lining up outside branches, you've got forklifts loading pallets onto trucks headed East.

WHY JANUARY 1ST CHANGES EVERYTHING:

China's export restrictions don't happen in a vacuum.

China is simultaneously:

🔹The world's largest silver consumer (industrial demand).
🔹A major silver producer and refiner.
🔹Sitting on depleting domestic vault inventories.

By restricting exports starting January 1st, China is essentially declaring: "Whatever silver we produce or refine stays here."

The immediate effect? Western markets lose a critical supply valve.

For years, when COMEX or LBMA needed physical delivery, metal could be sourced globally—including from China.

That safety net is about to disappear.

And the market is pricing this in right now.

THE PREMIUM TELLS THE REAL STORY:

Today, the physical premium in Shanghai exploded to over $8/oz above COMEX.

Eight. Dollars.

This isn't noise. This is structural.

Premiums spike when physical buyers are willing to pay whatever it takes to secure deliverable metal.

It Signals:

🔹Supply tightness → Vaults are running low.
🔹Delivery urgency → Industrial users can't wait.
🔹Import barriers → Getting metal into China is harder/slower.
🔹Geopolitical hedging → Smart money wants tangible assets.

When physical markets consistently trade above paper markets, history shows one outcome:

Paper prices eventually chase physical reality higher.

Every major commodity breakout starts this way—not with hype, but with fundamental supply-demand dislocations that paper markets can't suppress anymore.

EAST VS. WEST: TWO DIFFERENT MARKETS

Here's the bottom line...

The West prices silver on leverage.

The East prices silver on scarcity.

COMEX reflects speculation, hedging, and paper supply.

It's a derivatives market masquerading as a pricing mechanism. In my view, a SCAM.

Shanghai reflects REAL industrial demand, vault constraints, and physical delivery.

And right now, the gap between these two realities is screaming one message.

Physical silver is separating from paper silver.

WHAT THIS MEANS FOR YOU:

If you're holding physical silver, understand what's happening:

The metal you own is being repriced in real-time.

Global supply chains are fragmenting.

The "infinite paper supply" narrative is colliding with finite physical inventory.

If you're holding paper contracts, ETFs, or unallocated positions—you might want to ask yourself what you actually own when settlement time comes.

Because when Shanghai is paying $78 and #COMEX is printing $72, one of these prices is outright LYING.

And it's not the one backed by forklifts moving 1,000-ounce bars out of vaults.

THE BREAKOUT IS STARTING:

This isn't the end of silver's move.

This is how breakouts begin.

Not with headlines. Not with retail FOMO.

With structural breaks in the plumbing of global markets.

With premiums that shouldn't exist. With vault inventories that can't be replaced.

China's export restrictions go live in 8 days.

The market is already reacting.

The question isn't whether silver is going higher.

The question is whether you're positioned for what happens when paper markets finally admit what physical markets already know:

There isn't enough metal to go around.

Know what you hold.

🎯 Silver isn't expensive at $78. It's scarce.

Triple digit #silver is not only IMMINENT, but INEVITABLE.

If you enjoyed this post and found it valuable, like and repost so more people can see it. #silversqueeze

[Sotic @bominouca]

The Midnight Cat continues his antics

[Laco @lranchev]

@pinkhasov Oh sorry, I mean crude oil 🙂