Lakshmi Sreekumar

It's not that serious. Lighten up already.

Oil. Macro. Geopolitics. Solve puzzles. Seek truth. #BeUngovernable

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Folks, thank you so much for the engagement. All of it!

I wasn't expecting this much flow, and if I don't respond to your question quickly, it is because I am overwhelmed 😆and X illiterate. Please be patient with me!

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@Opec_Mole Those dinners were fun!

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Folks, thank you so much for the engagement. All of it!

I wasn't expecting this much flow, and if I don't respond to your question quickly, it is because I am overwhelmed 😆and X illiterate. Please be patient with me!

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@jeremie0117 They made a pivot back to coal in 2023, renewables have picked up as well. The below....only policy can drive that! It's insane...

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

It's not just a maximize economics or not q. It is an infrastructure q. ME refineries sustained damages that are just now recovering. They also just went through their seasonal demand peak in August. Native consumption + ref losses explain why we didn't recover. However, that is changing into Sep. So, now should be the time we should closely watch this.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Plenty of people said Chris Wright’s numbers were fiction.

We scored 24 administration flow claims against our independent, dark-adjusted series.

18 matched, aligned, or cleared the floor that was stated.

2 came in below. 2 are timing gaps. 2 are data gaps — we don’t force a verdict there.

#OOTT #Oil

@SecretaryWright

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@LuvDemCankles I'm going to have to write a paper about this, it is not a tweet by tweet discussion, that is clear....I've learned something new today.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@blerk213231111 @biral_r We are talking apples and oranges, Arvid. The conversation was about Biral saying USG should release XYZ data. I simply opined that maybe they don't do so because of security issues for vessels. I have no data from them.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@LuvDemCankles I'm ded 😆

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@LuvDemCankles Cankles, that was 2020, did even try to click the link?

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@blerk213231111 @biral_r They do have tanker type. I believe Biral was asking for vessel ID - IMO/Name/Flag etc. I would be surprised if they pay attention to that at the "messaging level".

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@LuvDemCankles Yes! Now you are getting to the crux of it. Policy, not choice is what is throttling consumption in countries like China. If you sell people EVs for $3000 a piece, who can refuse?

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

Peak to trough in 2020 was over 25 MBPD decline (Apr 2020). The 9-10 MBPD people quote is a q/q number, keep that in mind. Here we are saying p2t is 8 MBPD (30% of Covid decline).

If you visited any part of Asia during May, you'd see it clearly. There was serious rationing and just an unavailability of product, like LPG in India. We are lucky in that we have a thriving and incredible E&P sector that shields us on "balance" and our elasticity threshold is much higher thanks to our economy. Rest of the world was not so lucky.

IEA: Demand in April is estimated to be 29 mb/d lower than a year ago, down to a level last seen in 1995

https://t.co/ZTJqvi3INs

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

It will need a real explainer. One day of data won't really move the needle. USG is told by navy about the transits, maybe they collect the hull details, maybe the don't. But this is an interesting proposal....I wonder if there are security concerns around releasing vessel names, ie, Iran targets vessels that have previously availed of navy consort? I will find out.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@DegenHedgie @MiserMcMiserson @jph1931 There is an increase, but, its just getting off the lows (~ 50% of 2025avg). Nowhere close to oil. It will take some time. Smaller hulls = bigger problems if they get hit. Keep an eye on UAE, they're the ones leading the charge on this.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

No, that's not how that works. Oil demand = refinery runs + direct burn. Here your demand destruction is truly coming from lower runs due to (1) commercial (low crx, not the case now), (2) policy (China, protectionist), or (3) refinery damage (Rus, ME).

Product demand = actual consumption.

Product demand is modelled two ways, bottom up and top down. Top down is useless during disruptions (ask the agencies who can't get within 30% of reality most of the time). It starts with macro: household purchasing power, inflation, economic activity and price sensitivity. Its useful for "normal times." Bottom up starts from high-frequency sector data across transport, refining, freight, petrochemicals, aviation, industry etc. and this will give you the first clue as to where demand is going.

You cannot argue Chinese product draws are "covering up" the balance, b/c they don't have 8 MBPD of products to draw silently for 184+ days to "mask" the real demand loss.

Now that I have explained this, will you start behaving in my comments, Cankles?

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@BukhtiarZ If enough ppl are interested, I'll make a dedicated post. It'll take a bit of explanation.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@SugarRayRob2 US naval blockade restarted on July 14th or thereabouts. Since then I have counted no seaborne Iranian barrels. And if they did get any out, I didn't see them. That's the limitation of the methodology. There is some evidence of barrels leaving via land routes.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@BurggrabenH @Smash_Kapital Sadly, it is the opposite. More priority to get oil out (destocking). Refs are just about normalizing now. Products are picking up but nowhere close to pre-war (running about 50% 2025 avg vs oil at 75% of 2025 avg 7dma). Risk per hull for higher load it seems.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@LuvDemCankles Depends. You want bigger or smaller cankles by the end of it?

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@Opec_Mole You, my friend, are too kind.

[Lakshmi Sreekumar @LSREnergy]

@meloathesx Yes, stay tuned. Doesn't affect flow or s/d balance. But I get the curiosity at each gate.