Levi Lovell

Data Scientist || Baseball || Meteorology || Elections || NCSU Alum 📊

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

🧵 Ever felt overwhelmed by election night results? Wondering which specific counties to focus on as the numbers come in? Tonight, I’ll try to help cut through the noise by connecting early-reporting counties to others with similar voting histories. (1/9)

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@VoteHub Shift from tilt to lean D 👀

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@lxeagle17 @DrewSav @SplitTicket_ Why so bearish on MN-01?

[InteractivePolls @IAPolls2022]

📊 National Poll by Angus Reid Institute

Pres. Trump
Approve: 34% (=)
Disapprove: 59% (+1)

Lowest second-term net approval
——
Generic Ballot (Adults)
🟦 Democrats: 45%
🟥 Republicans: 36%

Decided Voters
🟦 Democrats: 53%
🟥 Republicans: 43%

8/8-11 | 1,525 A
https://t.co/MsMrITivqW

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@ryanjmccomb Would you expect a similar pattern in the MN senate primary? PF and AES seem to have galvanized support from similar demographics.

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@nick_field90 +1.8 👀

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@umichvoter Yikes, definitely seems like the polling was off…potentially by double digits.

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@SethMonteith150 Wet bulb temperature would easily be below freezing if 34/11 was the ob before precip

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@TimBuckleyWX Agree, it generally handles CAD evolution well. Similar QPF amounts and distribution to WPC too.

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@redsoxstats Looking through some potential RHH infield candidates (Mikey Romero may not be too different some of the tier 2 options though)...

Tier 1
Luke Keaschall, Jordan Lawler, Matt Shaw
Tier 2
Tommy Troy, Jacob Reimer, Gino Groover, Hao-Yu Lee, Alex Freeland, Max Anderson

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@redsoxstats Yuck. Looks like that was written ~2 weeks before they acquired Burrows so who knows where things stand now I guess.

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@tylermilliken_ @Section10Pod @Feinsand

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

Vindication for @tylermilliken_ in my OOTP26 sim

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@redsoxstats Probably room to lower the arm slot more to take strain off the rotator cuff (45° in 2024 -> 38° in 2025). Crochet similarly dropped his arm angle from 43° in 2023 -> 38° in 2024 -> 35° in 2025.
Think Duran + Bello + Arias + Phillips gets close?

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@ggeiss_mlb @goldlinks1314 Likely $80M+ for Bregman ($35M), King ($25M), LH RP ($5M), Okamoto/Contreras ($18M) puts you at ~$310M payroll. Even subtracting Yoshida and Hicks only gets you to ~$280M. Reporting has indicated they’re willing to spend up to the 2nd threshold ($264M).

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@gingersnaphyde @jcalworld Age may matter a bit, but both missed time in 2025 (Murakami oblique, Okamoto elbow). PA gap might be role-driven? Murakami can get more DH PA with a higher offensive ceiling. Okamoto’s playing time is more roster/fit dependent because of his defensive value.

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@gingersnaphyde @jcalworld If you normalize the projections to 600 PA, Okamoto actually edges out Murakami (2.31 WAR vs 2.29 WAR). Larger variance in outcomes for Murakami though for sure

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@redsoxstats Romy batting 9th, good call! Rafaela in the 5 spot is crazy to me though

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@redsoxstats 2025 stats against 96+ mph fastballs from RHP

Wong/Refsnyder/Romy seem like obvious bench candidates tonight. Small sample for Eaton. Hamilton/Sogard is a tossup. I'd guess they go:

Duran LF
Story SS
Bregman 3B
Yoshida DH
Lowe 1B
Wilyer RF
Narvaez C
Rafaela CF
Sogard 2B

[Levi Lovell @ltlovell]

@Section10Pod Bregman IG movie story just dropped boys