Luan Tran

New energy evangelist, Investor, Homeschool dad

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@Marnix_Belgium Very cool!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@ChinaDriven @phenryart @HDEONEV Do you think NIO could benefit from providing both BEV and EREV options in their new line of sub-brand vehicles (specifically ALPS)? An EREV with a swappable battery ticks off several boxes IMO. NIO has said that they will cater to the masses with the sub-brand.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@_mm85 @MiriamTheobald Congratulations!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@MrNIOinc Considering most sales are ET5, ET5T and ES6, I'm estimating ASP to be about 45K going forward.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@NIO_China Should have rang the bell when NOMI winked. Great job!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@_mm85 Based on their Q3 top line guidance of 57K deliveries and $2.7B in total revenues (including my estimated $250M in other income), I get a Q3 ASP of roughly $43K. This looks like the new norm.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@DCDOWORK I'd be happy if we can consolidate in the $14-16 range for a few weeks and make a 30-40% run at the tail end of August to get us back to $20 or so. Another 20K delivery month in August hopefully gets us there.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@morttyyyyyy @Nioskycoming I saw that earlier... good call!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@InvestorPlace Tell me you're desperate without telling me you're desperate.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@RapkeMarkus @_mm85 Makes sense!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@1benkiss You've been hanging in there! Congrats!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@Jas0nYu Makes sense just to build one on their campus in San Jose, CA. Have NIO Life products, show off some of the cars and battery swap. Will help retail investors better understand the company. Maybe allow us to pre-order for a small deposit or free just to get in line.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@_mm85 I think they understood the importance of capital markets when they pumped the stock up and raised the billions of dollars they needed to continue to expand. They knew then and they know now.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@morttyyyyyy @MrNIOinc @NIOSwitzerland Agree the set up is looking nice!

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@5littlebass @DCDOWORK Yes that's my point. 5 is not a stretch if NIO delivers.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@5littlebass @DCDOWORK Oh and RIVN has a PS of almost 10 now so a PS of 5 when NIO does $10-11B in annual revenue is not a stretch.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@5littlebass @DCDOWORK Also Li Auto is current at 5 so I could argue that we should be at 4 now which gets us a 28B mcap and a price of around $17. We will get there. Bears don't scare me.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@5littlebass @DCDOWORK A PS of 5 is fair if they execute and hit that revenue number by EOY. For comparison XPEV PS is currently 3.75, PSNY is 4 and TSLA is 10. We are undervalued however you look at it. I'm patient.

[Luan Tran @luanxtran]

@FatmirGjinaj With the ES8 we should get close to 5K registrations. I'm estimating for 4,500+. We shall see.