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@borrowed_ideas If you have been doing it for 20 years you do not underestimate it any more.
My experience - shorting is easy, risk management is hard.
Long is hard, risk management is easy.
this cycle didn’t suck, you just didn’t get a free ride this time
and crypto hasn’t lost its way, your belief is just being challenged
also no entity blowing up on 10/10 caused your bags to nuke, you just have poor risk management
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[Save this thread for later 📌]
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TikTok admits 27,000 fake accounts supported Călin Georgescu & AUR’s electoral campaigns in Romania. Romanian prosecutors say Turkish IPs and Russian email addresses were used by troll farms to create 20,000 TikTok accounts that posted over 2 million comments in November 2024 1/
The politicization of crypto was the dumbest move the industry ever made.
Decentralized technology is, and should be seen as apolitical.
The ability to self-custody funds is so key to both sides. The right for self-sovereignty, and the left for fair access and removing middle man exploitation.
Fair access to banking was a Democratic talking point for decades.
Warren in a lack of understanding and ignorance attacked this space, and the space stupidly swung waaaay too hard the other way.
Now it’s associated with the President’s grift and a political party, that make it broadly disliked.
And the minimal gains it earned from new policy will cost years of rebuilding good will and perception.
The one area I think people are dramatically under-appreciating is time.
When the markets sell off screen time generally increases, and it does so for a number of reasons.
1. Panic/fear of continued sell off.
2. Protection of positions.
3. Overtrading.
4. Trying to time a bottom.
5. Trying to clawback portfolio or trading losses.
Spending more time staring at the charts also shortens your time horizons. Everything starts to feel significant. 5m candles feel like macro reversals, 2 days of green feels like a bull market, a day of roundtripping reminds you the downtrend never left.
When we get into that mode it can be very difficult to remember the macro climate or at least the macro structure in terms of our trend and the general time appreciation that we need to have.
I've used the NASDAQ as the reference point to prove this.
From the start of the selling on the NASDAQ it took 14 months to stop the downtrend.
We are currently in the 3rd week of selling. Not even 1 month.
Those 3 weeks have probably already felt like 3 months to many of you.
From a BTC perspective the last time we lost a major Weekly low it took us 9 months to make a new high again.
And of course we all remember the choppy period in 2024 which lasted a similar length of time.
I have no idea what this correction will look like in terms of length of time. All I know is that absorbing the discussion on Twitter and obsessing over charts shortens the realistic expectations that you should have for any structure shift like we've seen.
Make sure you zoom out, or at least just keep your mentality in check throughout these periods of time to appreciate that you probably have much longer to go in poor conditions and protect yourself during them.
But on the positive side of this discussion, once the market shifts structure again you could have bought 1,2,3 or even 4 weeks late and still ridden a huge new uptrend to big returns.
Don't let the conditions beat you before we're presented with that opportunity to buy a new Weekly high/trend creation and ride our bags into new highs.