Lucent Ion 🧬

Biotech & genomics investor (long-biased). Curious about all things at the intersections of tech, medicine & finance. Never investment advice - DYOR.

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

@MattyKirsh Ofc, none of these are an excuse for poor stock picking 😆

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

Our 2 cents:

(1) Hedging/holding cash (as you pointed out) - this helps in downturns but can be serious drag in an upward-biased market (like we're in now);

(2) Funds may hold more large-cap names - XBI holds >150 positions that are more or less equal-weighted (at ~0.25-1.5% each, rebalanced quarterly), regardless of company size. This means that the XBI is heavily weighted towards small-cap names, which for the same reason as (1) can be a drag on fund's performance;

(3) Concentration - with XBI composed of >150 names, it's very diversified. This diversification can be challenging to fight against because each (smid-cap) name in the XBI is like a "mini-lottery ticket" - a name at ~1% weight that 3x is ~200+ bps in added alpha, while it only loses ~50 bps if it falls ~50%. Funds are often more concentrated, so a ~10% position that falls the same ~50% if they're wrong hurts them tremendously

For these reasons, the NBI (Nasdaq Biotechnology Index) is often a cleaner benchmark for biotech PMs - and often used at long-only funds - given that it reflects changes in company enterprise value

[dough @semodough]

$INSM Cantor blurb today just the start of $INSM rally.bear case around Brinsupri was finally put to rest,&with execution going better than expected, focus is finally starting to shift to the bigger picture: that INSM has 2 drugs with >$5B in peak sales opportunity each(more like $7B+ and $6B+, according to INSM). At INSM's current EV, less than 2x peak sales is getting priced in - think it could eventually trade closer to 3x.

[dough @semodough]

$INSM Stifel new model out 2030 revenue 5.2 Billion 12$eps

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

@DoodadDoctor @monaco_biotech Zoom out

Not a swipe - as we said, XBI is hard to beat over the long-term

[just a random dude @jy201506]

$INSM

Up 36% on rev guide increase. Congrats to @lucentionllc for the great call!

https://t.co/Wji1Yqd3Dh

[Monaco @monaco_biotech]

$NTRA +13% 📈 AH
Natera Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results

• BioPharmCatalyst https://t.co/5P4L6bFBuS

[dough @semodough]

$CYTK MYQORZO® (aficamten) Net Product Revenue of $25 Million
Full Results from ACACIA-HCM to be Presented in Hot Line Session at ESC; 
Expect to Submit Supplemental NDA for Aficamten in Non-Obstructive HCM in Q4 2026
MYQORZO Launched in Germany, Approved in United Kingdom and 
Regulatory Review Ongoing in Canada, Switzerland, Hong Kong and Taiwan
~$1.7 Billion in Cash, Cash Equivalents and Investments as of June 30, 2026

[dough @semodough]

$INSM BOFA PT ⬆️$214 TPIP outlook rises, adding to an underappreciated story
Mgt raised TPIP's peak sales outlook to >$6B from >$2B prior, reflecting the strong phase 2 data (see our OLE takes) and expanded development strategy. Further de-risking admittedly remains with much still to resolve, including whether high doses provide improved efficacy. That said, anticipatelimited investor pushback given a profile that increasingly appears differentiated. Rather, with the current valuation gap likely stemming more from limited credit in models, we'd argue there's room for expectations-and thus shares-to rise as investor attention increases.

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

@OldgrapeX We've read & acknowledged your work on $VRDN and your posts got us interested in the name. We take on a more commercial angle, but we overall agree with your view after diligence on our end. Thanks! 🙏

Give @OldgrapeX a follow! 👏

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$VRDN Viridian Therapeutics (VRDN) Review (Part 1/2): Keep Your Eye on the Prize in the Lucrative TED Market

We publish our deep dive on our take on VRDN (no paywall):

👁️Thyroid eye disease (TED) is a disfiguring autoimmune inflammatory condition that can lead to proptosis (“eye bulging”) and in advanced cases, blindness

💵AMGN’s Tepezza (IGF-1R antagonist) was the first FDA approved antibody therapy for treatment of TED in 2020 (from Horizon), and now annualizes at ~$2.3B in revenue

🔬VRDN is pushing forward two next-generation IGF-1R antagonists, Lumvoa (now approved) and elegrobart (BLA submission in 1Q27), to take on the lucrative TED market

💉Lumvoa and elegrobart have different administration profiles, but we think each can do well to expand the market

📈 At current EV of ~$1.3B (as of 8/5), we think VRDN is at a compelling valuation to offer potential upside on launches of both products

$VRDN (L)

https://t.co/DzzVrWDFFb

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

@jy201506 Amazing work, my friend! 👏

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$INSM Insmed Reports Second-Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Provides Business Update

Strong Q2 print 💪

- Brinsupri $309M (vs. cons ~$280M, buyside whisper ~$300M)
- Raises 2026 Binsupri revenue guidance to $1.25B to $1.40B (vs. at least $1B)
- 7k new pt starts (vs. 7.8k in 1Q)

- Total product sales: $425M (v. cons $394M)

- Raises peak revenue estimate for 3 lead programs to >$14B (>$7B for Brinsupri, >$6B for TPIP, >$1B for Arikayce)

$INSM(L)

https://t.co/F3yZXsiMjN

[Sheep of Wall Street @Biohazard3737]

$GH Shield launch insanely strong. Surpassing Cologuard significantly in terms of trajectory.

And of course, that‘s super bullish $FRNM. Probably the most interesting name in the tool space now.

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$KRYS Not a pretty sight today on stock action. We see a couple of culprits:

- Ex-US Vyjuvek sales ~flat/slightly down q/q: Vyjuvek rev grew to $119M in Q2, but driven by US at $92M (+4.5% q/q) implying ex-US sales of ~$27M (est -4.5% q/q) - primarily due to “reserve provision related to ongoing pricing negotiations in Germany,” leading to reduced rev growth despite >180 treated pts (up from >140 in Q1)

- KB801 registrational data for EMERALD-1 study in NK delayed to early ~2027 (from YE 2026) - KRYS has decided to expand it to a global trial. To be fully enrolled by YE 2026

But we see a few bright spots:

- US Vyjuvek growth still going strong (+4.5% q/q)

- Vyjuvek approved in UK in May

- Launches in Spain & Italy still on track for later this year

- Pricing negotiations with Germany should complete in Q3 (vs. 2H26 previously)

- 1 NK pt in an earlier trial achieved complete closure (CEO Krishnan was careful to say not to extrapolate to the other NK pts, esp with different design in registrational trial, and disclosure was a legal requirement)

- Japan launch has been impacted by the intense Rx renewal requirements, and should end at some point in the near-term

Lumpiness in the ex-US launch should be expected, as was the case in the early days of the US launch, and should not portend a long-term downward trend. Keep in mind also that KRYS stock has had an historic run over the past year, so some give-back should be expected.

We remain undeterred in KRYS’ long-term outlook 💪

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

We can share what we're looking for at a high-level when $KRYS reports Q2 earnings tmrw:

- Cont'd push on ex-US Vyjuvek expansion. Q1 was impressive at $29M ex-US across EU & Japan w/ >140 pts treated. We'd like to continue to see that trend

- Launches in Italy & Spain as well as pricing decision in Germany are expected in 2H26 - hope to see this on-track

- In US, Vyjuvek launch is showing signs of maturing Vyjuvek as DEB pts transition to maintenance phases. We hope to still see cont'd growth in the US, even if more incremental while maintaining high GM's (~95+%)

- At some point (potentially when ex-US launch is more established), we've said we'd really like to see them share their plan to find their est ~3k DEB pts in the US (vs. the 1.2k identified pts) - this would markedly expand peak potential rev for Vyjuvek

- We basically want to see cont'd launch execution on Vyjuvek as WW revs marches towards ~$1B in annualized rev (i.e. blockbuster status). We model ~$1.3B in peak rev, incl ocular DEB

- KRYS has a rich list of pipeline catalysts coming in 4Q/YE 2026. CF is interesting but we really need to see some signs of FEV1 benefit from multi-dosing (but huge opportunity if they do). We're most excited about NK801 in neurotrophic keratitis (NK) and we look forward to seeing that data

- On Fri's price action (-7%), we think that may have just been some of the premium fleeing the stock after the stock's rise earlier in the wk on speculation that $JNJ could acquire the company. This was also against a weak biotech tape that day.

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$KRYS (L) takeout would be great news in the short term, but long term, we agree - we'd prefer them to keep building their company & business independently. Cash-flow(+), formidable team, lots of tailwinds & pipeline opportunities 🏆

[Albert @BioCamus]

@seedy19tron Long time $KRYS shareholder here, wouldnt be too happy with a takeout. Great company, many tailwinds, hope they go their own way.

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$GH Leerink (Puneet) raises PT to $225 (from $190)

He notes "Guardant remains the best-in-class liquid biopsy (LBx) opportunity in our universe."

$GH (L)

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$GH Guardant Health Reports Second Quarter 2026 Financial Results and Increases 2026 Revenue Guidance

2Q highlights:
- Rev: $335M vs. cons $314M
- EPS GAAP: $(0.90) vs. cons $(0.76)
- 2026 revenue guidance raised to $1.34-1.36B (vs. $1.31-1.32B previously)
- Oncology rev $219M and 104k oncology tests (+63% y/y)
- Screening rev $52.9M and ~66k Shield screening tests (+313% y/y, +50% q/q)

$GH (L)

(Consensus est from Godel Terminal)

https://t.co/9AB2qHfa31

[Lucent Ion 🧬 @lucentionllc]

$BMY 2Q26 - re: Camzyos:

- Camzyos revs increased +59% y/y to $416M (+32% q/q), reflecting continued promotional efforts
- New patient prescriber additions & deeper penetration into the community setting
- FDA accepted their sNDA for Camzyos in adolescents with oHCM - PDUFA 9/30
⁃ BMY continues to actively plan PIII study for Camzyos in nHCM and expect to initiate the study by YE 2026

$CYTK (L)

[Bio Stocks™ @BioStocks]

$CYTK Announces MHRA Marketing Authorisation for MYQORZO (aficamten) and Positive Guidance from NICE for Symptomatic Obstructive Hypertrophic Cardiomyopathy in England and Wales