A PhD's success depends more on the fit between the student, the advisor, and the lab than on the specific topic being studied (it barely matters at all).
Similarly, a lab's success depends more on how excited (or miserable) its researchers are than on the precise project they are working on (it could be virtually anything).
This information isn't in papers or in grant proposals, you have to ask the researchers.
In English we say: “That was a lucky guess”
But in academia we say: “This observation, while initially unexpected, aligns retrospectively with theoretical predictions.”