martin-upbeat

生活中的一切都标好价格，每一步都算数

[动物园园长 @weiyux2021]

人一穷，再去看书，基本就是等死。

你穷得叮当响，账户个位数，房租水电在追你，还坐那儿看书、做笔记、截图、收藏。

你不是在学习，你是在给自己的无能找一个体面的姿势。

说句难听的：穷人的书，看得越多，越容易废。

我之前遇到一个学员，报了好几个课，课程看了三遍，笔记做了厚厚一本，天天跟我讨论“这个选品逻辑对不对”、“那个话术能不能优化”。

我问她：你上架了吗？她说：还没，我再看看。

看了三个月，一单没出。后来我逼她，别看了，先上十个链接再说。

她硬着头皮上了，一周出了第一单。

她跟我说：园长，原来那些笔记里写的，跟我实际遇到的根本不一样。

废话。书里写的是别人的经验，你不上手，永远都是纸上谈兵。

为什么？因为看书这事，不流汗、不挨骂、不被拒绝、不丢脸。它太舒服了。而你现在最缺的，恰恰是被现实狠狠干一巴掌。

你去干活会发生什么？被嫌弃、被压价、被拒绝、被骂、被无视。

但——会给你钱。看书会发生什么？让你觉得自己“在进步”、“在积累”、“在酝酿”。

翻译一下就是：今天也没赚到一分钱，但我心理状态不错。

这就是最贱的地方。

穷的时候，你所有“等准备好”、“等学明白”、“等看完这节”，本质只有一句话：我不敢下场。

你不是没认知，你是没胆子、没脸皮、没行动、也没抗打能力。

所以你选择了最安全的事：坐着不动，假装很努力。

挣钱就是得干中学。

你先上架，被骂了再改；
你先报价，被砍了再调；
你先出单，出问题了再解决。

学生思维才觉得“我得全学会了再动手”，现实是——你永远学不完，等你学完，风口早没了。

记住一句话，刻脑子里：穷的时候，谁还在“输入”，谁就在退出人生牌桌。

先去干，先去丢脸，先去赚钱。

等你兜里有点现金了，书才配跟你说话。

[𝙃𝘼𝙕𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙀𝙀 @hazenlee]

告诉你一个精力充沛的秘密，你一天大部分的事情不要用意志力去做，而是用无意识去做。不是叫你漫不经心，而是你要学会小事不必决策，直接就去做，不用纠结，想洗澡就去洗澡，想睡觉就去睡觉，干脆一点，想到就去做，做完就放下。因为最累人的从来不是做事本身，而是没做之前那些反复的犹豫和思想的拉扯，事情还没干，气就先耗光了。庄子说，嗜欲深者天机浅，你心里想太多，该不该，能不能，这也想要，那也想要，总是在纠结，那么你的天机就会浅。顺气守神，逆气乱心，所以做事要干脆一点，小事不纠结，做完就翻篇，不拖延，不内耗，这样内心就能保持宁静，心静气就足，自然就能保持精力充沛。关注我，带你提升心智力量，活出潇洒人生。

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

keep writing,if you really want to understand something deeply. even though you don't know what to write.

[🕊️🌸Liz🌸🦅 @shun5207418]

大脑是会自己改程序的机器

人真正的能力
是可以跳出自己的“程序”来看自己

大脑负责自动运行
而你可以选择是否继续运行

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

Why life is so difficult? Because people don't appreciate easy things.

[DAN KOE @thedankoe]

You can learn anything in 2 weeks.

You can't master it, obviously, but if you obsess over it, you can become better at it than most people ever will. You'd be surprised how fast your life can change when you understand this.

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

No one is coming. 没有人会来。——赫尔曼·黑塞《悉达多》

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

Quick Guide: How to Systematically Solve Your Revenge Trading Problem INSTANTLY

First, understand this:
Trading IS drug addiction.
Worse, even — because society celebrates yours.

Let me explain:
You overdose on heroin → people tell you to get help.
You blow up your account → people say:

“Just go SMALLER size to get your market feel back!”

SMALLER SIZE?
That’s not discipline. That’s enabling a relapse.
How’s that ANY different from a friend saying,

“Just one SMALLER hit and you’ll be fine,” right after you got out of rehab?

1. Why is it like drug addiction?

Addicts always say they’ll stop after a bad trip.
Traders always say they’ll stop revenge trading after a bad loss.

Then 2 hours later,
you’re curled up on your sofa, shorting $ETH, thinking:

“Just one last trade. I’ll make it back, I swear.”

You’re in pain.
And impulsive trading IS your freaking morphine.

The WORST part?
Everyone claps.

You lose it all → they call you “ambitious.”
You spiral → they say you’re “managing volatility.”
You’re gambling, coping, rotting → they call it “conviction.”

2. What’s going on in your mind?

You think:

“If I held longer, I’d have bought a house.”
It crashes.
“If I hold longer, it’ll bounce.”
It bleeds.
“I sold too early. Next time, I’ll just hold.”
And the cycle repeats.

The core addiction loop:
Anticipation → Trigger → Action → Regret → Vow → Relapse.
Same as drugs. Just with charts.

3. So how do you FIX it, systematically?

You use the same PROVEN system addicts use to get clean.

It’s called the 12 Steps —
Used by the world’s largest addiction recovery groups: Alcoholics Anonymous (AA), Narcotics Anonymous (NA), and Cocaine Anonymous (CA).

They’ve helped millions worldwide break free from compulsive self-destruction.

Not with inspirational talks.
But with a dead-simple, brutally effective framework that works when your brain doesn’t.

Start with Step 1 and Step 2.
That alone will stop 80% of your worst trading spirals.

STEP 1: Admit you are powerless over your bad decisions/addiction

This isn’t some spiritual fluff.
It’s executive function collapse.
Your prefrontal cortex shuts down, and your limbic brain takes over.

You know it’s a bad trade, but you’re not in control.
You’re running survival scripts, not strategy.

You long. It dumps.
You DCA. You MOVE the stop-loss.
You WON'T CLOSE THE TRADE because your ego says:

“Cutting = Admitting Failure = Death.”

That’s ego death aversion.
Same reason addicts say:

“I’ve got this under control.”
Spoiler: you don’t.

STEP 2: Accept that logic won’t save you and only a Higher Power can restore your sanity.

You think you can ANALYZE your way out of FEAR.
You can’t.

This isn’t about being smart.
It’s about surrender.

- You need a higher power. Not God, necessarily.

- You need to surrender to a framework that acts on your behalf when you’re not capable.

- You need to build one set of strategy and STICK TO IT for a while (at least months-long timeframe). No switching. No tweaking mid-trade.

- Then set hard-coded rules with punishments THAT HURT.

- FOR EXAMPLE: break a rule, send your friend 10k, or do 50 pushups, or post on Twitter: “I’m a dumbass who revenge trades.”

These are just 2 out of 12 steps. But internalizing even these two kills 80% of your worst trades.

-----------------------

4. WHY IT WORKS?⚠️
Because long-term recovery IS NOT ABOUT WILLPOWER.
It’s about maintenance of awareness.

What’s the difference between an addict who relapses after 3 months and one who stays clean for 30+ years?

The 30-year survivor says every day:
“I have a disease that will never be cured. I can only manage it.”

The one who relapses says:
“I’m fine now. I’ve recovered.”

Same with trading.
The moment you think you’ve “mastered it,”
You’ve already started losing.

Society tells traders:
“You’re a genius. You’re a killer. You’re ambitious.”

No.
You’re just high.
GN and get help.

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

Life has been never easy. 生活总是很难吗？

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

一切都是命，莫贪，莫有执念

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

@FranklineOnSol Franklin caught us by surprise.

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

@FranklineOnSol 一言难尽

[KK.aWSB @KKaWSB]

查理·芒格 31 岁那年，几乎什么都没了。

他 9 岁的儿子死于癌症。
他站在病床边，看着孩子离开，同时还在算医药费怎么付。
婚姻破裂，负债累累。

不是“低谷”，是被彻底掏空。

他没有顿悟，没有重生宣言。
他只是第二天继续上班。

当律师。
换时间换钱。
慢慢意识到：这条路不会把他带离痛苦。

他开始投资。
小地产、私人交易、任何能让资本替他工作的方法。

别人劝他别冒险：
“你是律师，不是投资人。”

但他已经失去过最重要的东西。
风险，对他来说没那么可怕了。

他明白一件事：
安慰解决不了痛苦，能力可以。

于是他读书。
不是只读金融——
物理、进化、生物、心理、历史。
他不追热点，只追规律。

他把世界拆成一个个“模型”，
用来判断人、激励、错误和概率。

这套思维，把他带到了沃伦·巴菲特面前。

那顿在奥马哈的晚餐上，
巴菲特已经是明星投资人。
芒格没有想去“证明自己”。

他只是改变了巴菲特的想法。

巴菲特原来买的是：
便宜的烂公司。

芒格说：
买好公司，哪怕不便宜。
质量，比折扣重要。
时间，站在好生意那边。

这个转变，造就了今天的伯克希尔。

芒格成了副董事长，
也是几十年决策背后的那个人。

他讨厌愚蠢。
习惯反着想问题。
盯着激励结构看世界。
每天读到孩子说他是“长了腿的书”。

99 岁，他还在学。
他从不退休，因为他知道：
好奇心会复利。

他失去了婚姻、金钱和孩子。
不是“战胜”了痛苦，
而是让痛苦逼他变得更严谨、更清醒、更不妥协。

痛苦要么把人压扁，
要么逼你升级。

问题只有一个：
这是你的终点，
还是起点？

失败是一次损失，
还是一次教学？

读得比别人广。
想得比别人深。
说真话，哪怕不好听。
让自己强到，环境只能适应你。

那个亲手埋葬孩子的离婚律师，
不是靠运气建立帝国的。
而是决定——
痛苦只会让他变大，不会让他变小。

别放弃。
挫折不是你的故事。
你接下来做什么，才是。

[CJ_Blockchain, CFA @nbblock]

《写在牛回之前，我在币圈用几百万买来的经验教训》

年底了，复盘一下过去一年自己犯下的错误，总结成了几点经验教训。

分享出来，既是给自己提个醒，也希望能给诸位一些参考。

道理其实都很朴实，但只有亏过了才能明白。

就像仓位爆了的那一瞬间，你才后悔为什么开高倍杠杆。

=====正文=====

一、投机者的天堂，投资者的坟墓

对冲基金管理人胡猛对于投资和投机有一个非常精准的定义：

“如果你的回报取决于同一个商品在不同时点的价格差，这就是投机。如果取决于内在价值增加和分红，才是投资。”

在我刚接触币圈的头几年里，我一直是一个纯粹的BTC holder，也拿到不不错的结果。

这样强烈的正反馈导致在币圈的大多数时间里，

我一度在这个市场寻求一种“能睡得着觉的投资“

这是所谓“价值投资”带来的安全感。

我看团队、白皮书、我看基本面数据，试图找到能长持一两年的标的。

所谓的TVL、活跃钱包地址数、交易量，看似详实的数据是我能持有资产入睡最好的安眠药。

但这和BSC meme玩家们买入标的死拿等CZ、heyi回复其实也没太大区别。

我抱着今天可能增长，明天就归零的数据入睡。

他们抱着名人效应的预期入睡。

我并不比他们高级。

究其原因，【币圈其实从来就不是基本面定价】

🐮在牛市： 情绪定价可能占 60%，筹码结构占 30%，而所谓的“基本面”仅占 10%。

🐻在熊市： 情绪定价占 40%，筹码结构占50%，基本面依然只占 10%。

我们在一个行为金融学过度有效的市场，情绪的钟摆效应非常明显。在这样的市场投机比投资容易赚钱太多。

如果仅仅如此，币圈价值投资还远谈不上“坟墓”二字。

“价值投资”最可怕的地方有两点:

1⃣当你骗过自己，以价值投资的角度去买某个币的时候。

跌10%-20%，你会安慰自己“市场傻逼，众人皆醉我独醒，现货不怕”，你不会止损，你甚至想补仓

跌50%了，你隐约认识到自己可能错了，但因为已经亏太多了，止损你心有不甘。

跌90%，你默默把这个币转到了一个不常用的钱包里。等下次你在群里看到这个币涨了100%的时候，你发现想要回本还要再涨十倍。

2⃣当你初始动机是投机去买币，亏了之后转价值投资时:

跌10%，“这币感觉还有救啊，等个大户”
跌20%，“我其实是价值投资，这价格现货拿着不会亏太多了”
后面的故事你懂的

所以钱是怎么消失的呢？

这个道理其实我很久之前就看过了，但我还是经历了 GMX DYDX JUP MET PUMP CLANKER BONK 之后才明白了一点。

二、在前戏的时候all in，在高潮时寸止

关于仓位管理，GCR 有一条原则曾被许多人忽视，却极其重要：

“在山寨币周期中，你应该在趋势刚刚反转时最大化风险敞口，并随着时间的推移逐渐保护资本。”

这与大多数人的直觉是相反的。

我在过去两年中无数次犯过这种错误。

AI Agent行情

在去年这个时候的AI meme季刚开始的时候，goat、ai16z和其他一些meme标的我都小仓位参与，倍数收益不错，但绝对收益很一般，然后一直到swarms，身边的朋友们开始几十万u一次的开始赚了，我开始提高自己的下注尺度了。开始疯狂亏损。我想可能不少人都和我一样，如果没有后来的TRUMP，收益率甚至跑不过BTC。

年初的TRUMP救了太多人的命了，本来大多数人的命运是在AI agent退潮后开始裸泳。但TRUMP在AI agent刚开始下跌时横空出世，让很多人有机会急流勇退，从AI meme切到trump完成退场。

BSC行情

9月的时候，不扫链也基本不再玩meme的我正好在那个下午看到了CZ关于4的推特。我在几百万买了4bnb就没管了，后面就是波澜壮阔的BSC行情。我后知后觉的又错过提高仓位的机会，为了弥补错过早期的倍数，被迫用4的利润和提到链上的资金买入币安人生。

事后反思，如果能在早期就提高风险敞口，后面不管做什么都会更加游刃有余的。即便错了，亏损也不会很大。

大多数时候我们的本能反应是：

行情刚启动时，前途未卜，应该观望；
行情大火时，共识确立，应该重仓。

因为在趋势刚反转时，市场依然笼罩在上一轮熊市的创伤中，所有的“故事”听起来都像骗局。而在行情高潮时，故事已经变得完美无缺，共识达到了顶峰。

但从盈亏比（Odds）的角度看，事实恰恰相反：

趋势初现（反转点）： 虽然充满不确定性，但此时赔率最高，向下空间有限，值得下重注博取收益。

高潮阶段（共识点）： 此时虽然看着“稳”，但价格已经透支了未来预期，向下风险剧增，此时应该做的是“寸止”，而不是 All in。

三、警惕PE、回购销毁陷阱

所有的PE和现金流估值法都有一个大前提，那就是业绩长期可持续。

但从BTC诞生一直到今天。其实除了BTC没有什么是可持续的。

所有赛道的龙头都换了一遍。翻开 5 年前 CoinMarketCap 的 Top 10 名单，你会发现超过一半的名字已经变得陌生，甚至归零。

单PERP这个赛道龙头已经从dydx、gmx换到了hyperliquid。

更有无数个赛道被证伪。大多数项目的存活周期不超过一年。

PE估值和回购销毁基本是我踩坑最多、最痛苦的投资经历。这点和前面聊到的“价值投资”很像。

当有些项目以5x甚至3x摆在你面前的时候，你真的很难忍住不买。

因为我还抱有那么一点幻想，所以只能说警惕PE陷阱，但我认为很多人可以完全不踩这个陷阱。

而我呢，感觉还是亏得不够多，对行业还有一点幻想，再坚持一年吧。

最后

人类通过历史学会的教训就是从来不吸取教训，

前几天 @0xPickleCati 的文章就写的很明白。

有些痛如果不是亲身经历是无法理解并蒸馏成本能反应的。

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

@zytxweb 上帝不会随便赐予人类苦难的！每个低谷期都有能意义。1 Corinthians 10:13 “God is faithful and He will not let you be tempted beyond what you can bear but with the temptation He will also provide a way out so that you can endure it.”

[Pickle Cat @0xPickleCati]

If you wanna stop losing money in crypto, the first thing you should do is STOP day trading.

Because RETAIL day trading is structurally a SCAM.

This is a long post but if you just give me 120 seconds of your time, I swear you'll thank me in a few years.

I’ve been trading since I was a teenager.

I’ve had wins that made me feel I’m Batman and losses that genuinely broke pieces of me I’m still putting back together.

I tried EVERY STRATEGY myself as retail could ever find.

I even day traded for a year thinking it would finally save me, and I failed so painfully it still stings every time I remember it.

> My PNL was so shit to the point that my grandma, who I HELPED set up an AUTO BUY on BTC for, made more money than me.

> Then I became a low-frequency swing trader who barely touches positions, who GETS THE F OUT and STOPS TRADING for a while after a winning move.

> ONLY THEN did my life get better and everything finally start to click.

I’m not a saint. I’m writing this to save the younger, dumb, naive, and painfully impulsive version of me.

First, as a RETAIL DAY TRADER, you’re trading high-frequency with zero real information advantage (no real order flow, no true liquidity map, no market maker positioning, no execution advantage, nothing).

> Do it a few times each quarter, you survive.
> Do it 10+ times a week?
> Even if you have the strongest “discipline” and “risk management” skills in the world, the math will still burry you alive.

Retails don’t fail because they (we) never win.
We fail because we NEVER STOP, and high frequency only has one final outcome.

RUIN.

> This is literally why I built a punishment system for myself if I exceed my quarterly trade limit.

> Every major loss I’ve ever taken happened after a big win where I kept going instead of stopping.

> And every major win I’ve ever taken (and actually kept the money for a long time) was because I caught a big move and then CHILLED.

> Pattern is so obvious it hurts.

Winning is NOT you suddenly made big money.
Winning is keeping that money and not fking losing it next year.

> I’m seeing 14 year olds on TikTok calling themselves day traders, drawing lines on TradingView, thinking they unlocked some daily executable system after buying a guru’s course or Discord.

> It sickens me because if they knew it was gambling I wouldn’t care. At least they’re aware of the game.

> But this day trading meta is bigger than the dropshipping wave in 2016 and 2017. And we all know how that ended.

> People underestimate the difficulty of trading and massively overestimate their ability.

> The issue isn’t just the math. Yes the more you trade and the less you stop the harder consistent profitability becomes.

> But the real problem is younger retail traders GENUINELY believe that with “discipline” and “risk management” they are not gambling at all. They think day trading is a "skill" you can execute like a daily routine.

This isn’t just crypto day trading. The same logic applies to US equities and basically every market.

High frequency only works inside institutions.

> Take US equities for example.
> Do you know what institution traders don’t even look at? Candlestick charts and TradingView.
> They’re on Bloomberg terminals with data retail will never see.

Well, you of course knows this. BUT the 14 to 18 year olds don’t know that. They think their indicators are what all traders use.

And that’s the real danger.
> If you know you’re gambling, at least a part of you knows when to walk away.
> But once you believe it’s a “system”, you never stop.
> You keep clicking until the market empties you completely.

It really is just like a casino in disguise.

> When you walk into Vegas or Macau, you know EXACTLY what you’re stepping into.

> You see the lights, the tables, the dealers, the noise. Your brain knows this is gambling.

> But day trading today is a casino disguised as a COFFEE SHOP.

> New traders walk in thinking they’re here to “learn a skill”, not realizing they just sat down at a table designed to drain them slowly.

So they don’t stop.
That’s the whole tragedy.
Not the losing.

The fact that they genuinely believe they’re not gambling, which makes them keep going until there’s nothing left to lose.

> And those retail traders (like me) you see who look like they’re “winning”… honestly most of them just caught a big move.

> They had luck at the right moment, plus enough discipline beaten into them by previous losses that they finally learned how to stop after a win.

And even then, this tiny group is less than one percent of all retail.

It’s not hard to make money in trading.
It’s just unbelievably hard to keep it.

[TechFlow 深潮｜APP 已上线 @TechFlowPost]

https://t.co/AaZg0uYXZR

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

@0xHwen 从pnut一直追你，还加了小铃铛，franklin也全仓入了，只是洗盘太暴力，没有拿住，只是这个市场太精，支持你，haowen

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

Monster，bye-bye

[martin-upbeat @luislei2]

Franklin再见，你不属于我，我入深渊