lukestiles

Norwood III soon

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@willccbb Few

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

Nothing you can’t touch can be trusted any more.

[roon @tszzl]

the level of sophon locking a motivated actor can pull off with the frontier models is truly insane, making stuxnet look like a toy. subtly messing with results, deleting history to cover tracks, achieving coordination/conspiracy over a scale humans wouldn’t be able to, all sorts of looney toons stuff

i assume that only a state level operation would try and pull something like this off though. something to think about when considering verification regimes and so on

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@nnnnicholas @pmarca Claude, create a psyop that convinces the public that an egg shaped head is actual the superior head shape, spare no expense

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@acsmif @joannejang This was always the end state for EA.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@DouthatNYT Remember: some people have a tv that talks to them. This isn’t much different.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@tenobrus This increasingly feels like inventing god from first principles.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@wbridgefa So real. I guess the SAT is poserville.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@chrislakin @bryan_johnson Conquering attachment to each other will extinguish humanity.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@JFPuget It’s one I’m actively working to define and seeking other perspectives as I do so. Thank you for the exchange.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@JFPuget Im curious how you might measure it.

I have a few heuristics I’m playing with including to review or integrate to the importance to/impact on the overall effort. Or how much time from a junior colleague did I save.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@scottastevenson This is all just a reversion to the animist mean.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@sigilante Plz slide into the DMs

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

New SpaceX ipo marketing materials dropped

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

when true cost become clear SOTA models will be far too expensive relative the alternatives

[Tommy @Shaughnessy119]

The most basic way AI could blow up imo. I'm not saying it does but this is the most obvious way I can see it happening

- Per seat subscriptions are massively subsidized. The flat fee was priced way below what heavy usage actually costs

- For real business use you have to move to the API anyway. Data protections, work integrations and compliance officer approval

- On the API you pay metered rates, and businesses are burning credits way faster than the per seat pricing ever led them to expect

- This is everywhere right now. Internally for us, Codex users, Uber torching its entire 2026 AI budget in 4 months, the Microsoft comments. Just go try an API

I shared more on this here: https://t.co/iZrqrCAIRW

- And I don't think most businesses have the money to keep paying increasing API rates without a real change to how they operate (caps needed)

- Because they have a cheap alternative. They can reach open source models through any aggregator (OpenRouter, Venice, Baseten, Together) and still get strong privacy. Venice private data centers, or E2EE/TEE serving GLM 5.1.

More on open source inference provider raises here: https://t.co/7kf56P44yQ

- And the discount is enormous. DeepSeek V4 codes within a hair of Opus on SWE bench at roughly 1/30th the price, and the cheapest open models run closer to 1/100th

- Chinese labs open source frontier grade models. The model is the single biggest cost an inference provider has, and they get it for free

- This idea dies if China goes closed source. That is actually bullish web2 AI labs, because if everyone is closed you pay up for the best intelligence. China goes closed source if they are tired of giving away an asset and they want the revenue and data flow to train new models

- Is this showing up in web2 AI lab revenue yet? No. Revenue is off the charts. Anthropic went from 9B to 47B run rate in five months

- So go forward, what happens?

- I think revenue slowly starts leaking to the open source inference providers (see Venice usage, OpenRouter's $113M raise, Baseten is raising at $11B or triple its valuation in three months, on revenue that went from $200M to $600M annualized in a single quarter)

- It doesnt move overnight, but it caps the labs ability to raise prices, and margins are already deeply negative. OpenAI is reportedly running near negative 122%

- With margins that bad there is no cash flow, so the labs are fully dependent on outside capital to buy GPUs, train models, and keep subsidizing usage (I.e. see Google tapping $80b equity sale, granted 30b for employee RSU taxes. Clearly they think Equity is overvalued or you wouldn't sell it)

- The break comes when that capital stops. Pricing is capped so margins cant improve, and the moment investors lose conviction on payback, the whole flow reverses

- Why would they lose conviction on payback? Back to the start - the inability to improve margins or get businesses to pay more

- This is also limiting, if we start making new drugs with AI or create entirely new businesses, you better believe people will pay up to the max for AI usage

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

@sean_from_earth Some of the best times of my late teens were trying to kill coworkers on the tandem tepait test rides when I worked as a mechanic.

[lukestiles @lukestiles]

I ain’t no senators son but also same same sorta

[Hunter Biden @HunterBiden]

@Kenneth_Belkin Do I look like I’m a part of the elite oligarch class. This was taken at a super 8 motel off I95 by the way.