Christopher Lutton

"Try not to become a man of success but rather try to become a man of value." - A.E.

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@jnordvig HAHAHAH! Priceless.

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@nickfarrow76 :) Where are you, flathead?

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

Forgot how much I missed this morning view...been good to be back a bit more often these days.

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@BrianWa73603359 Thx amigo, shout me for proper catch-up!

[Alex Gurevich @agurevich23]

I will be live on @RealVision at 1pm EST / 10am PST
https://t.co/lXuLFKKxBx

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@LadyFOHF Maybe just a bar code on it that, when read, pulls up your LinkedIn page.

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

I listened but still a software-only fix; where is a simple override switch on the yoke? Or a more accessible circuit breaker?

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@ReformedBroker I remember one of H Paulson's first lines to our incoming associate class "Individually, you could all do much greater harm to the firm than you can good." Harsh words but very true when it comes to how much easier it is to damage a brand than it is to build it up...

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@HayekAndKeynes Fun to hear your play by play of a very foreign cultural experience. Spend more time & you’ll appreciate layers and layers of complexities

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

um....
*WILLIAMS: ECONOMISTS ARE NOT VERY GOOD AT PREDICTING RECESSIONS

9 seconds later...

*WILLIAMS DOES NOT SEE ELEVATED RISK OF RECESSION IN 2019, 2020

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@AMKcm @InterestArb @Fullcarry *CLARIDA: U.S. MORE EXPOSED TO FOREIGN SHOCKS DUE TO INTEGRATION
*CLARIDA: RISKS INCLUDE BREXIT, TRADE, SLOWER GLOBAL GROWTH
*FED'S CLARIDA: U.S. POLICY MAKERS CANNOT IGNORE GLOBAL RISKS

setting the stage now...(& remember, the FED is still tightening thru Sept)

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

*AMERICAN AIR PILOTS URGE CAUTION IN FAA REVIEW OF 737 MAX
*PILOTS UNION TELLS REGULATORS `DON’T RUSH' IN APPROVING UPDATE
vs.
*FAA'S ELWELL SAYS PILOTS GOT ENOUGH TRAINING ON 737 MAX
*FAA SAYS CAUSE OF CRASH STILL NOT COMPLETELY CLEAR
Probably good pilots added to this convo..

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@RobinWigg @abnormalreturns @LONGCONVEXITY HA, well said! To give you some color, if a younger macro manager brought up "quantamental" in an allocator discussion, the convo would end in the 60 seconds that followed. Getting away w/certain comments like "intersection of systematic & discretionary investing" is unlikely. 😄

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@HayekAndKeynes MTM on his '18 view that there is a secular shift from monetary policy to fiscal policy. Also, curious to me that he wants to "lean in" on real assets when he has much lower GDP & US earnings projections.

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@RufusTFireflyJr Thx, So you can imagine why it's so hard for me to read street research on EMFX in early '19 (similar to early '17 and '18). When pushing X country here b/c of Fed pivot to allow risk assets to run, there is still a lack of appreciation for how little risk premium is in the trade

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

#BRL Is 3.0% positive carry sufficient to go long BRL here at this point in the cycle?

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@BisphamGreen Agree. Think we need to break 4.25 (9/15 highs) before looking at constructive trades. One to look at is selling topside 1yr digitals. Now you can get 30% payout to sell a 1yr 4.25 digi. But vols still behaved & we could be heading higher. Something to keep an eye on...

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@zeibars great. this probably means i have some early onset issues....

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

@LolCapital Agreed. Based on 2yr AUD minus US rates, i would think another 0.50-1.00% of carry favoring USD throws the cross into a higher vol of vol. That kind of move lower in $AUD rates w/out US lower may be tough to envision...

[Christopher Lutton @luttonpc]

$AUD spot still ~6/7 big-figures below its 20yr avg (so, fairly middle of the road). But fwd points haven’t been this negative since 2000 when spot was in the 0.50s. AUD still looks supported around 0.70. Any thoughts why?