luxcrypto

building quant pricing models for crypto options
@polymarket top 0.01% market maker.

intraday flow trading bitcoin.

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

$poly was a nice fantasy

I expected to be rewarded for providing 80M in crypto volume 😂

they instead used taker fees to further kill retail volume by favoring a few hft takers that were already absolutely cooking everyone.

I really cannot wrap my head around this…

[Luis Hauenstein @luishXYZ]

another reason against $POLY launching anytime soon

the last thing Polymarket now needs is a token potentially being a drag on its fully regulated, compliant US business

the US market is the big prize. and polymarket can’t airdrop to US users

the logical consequence? no token

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

I am an unpaid hater of binance.

[CZ 🔶 BNB @cz_binance]

👀🫶

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

trenches have never been this deep. 😭

If you are all unprofitable still just quit this extraction.

Y’all on fomo feel like Robin Hood or something?!

“Stealing from the poor and giving back to the rich.”

[Miyamoto @iruletrenches]

trenches are so cooked that it takes being up two shawarmas to be ranked #21 on fomo

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

@HypeDojo @HyperliquidX does he just want to pay funding for no reason? 😭

[f5 @combustiion]

whenever a derivative is more liquid than the underlying it becomes profitable to manipulate/print hammer.

this has made market manipulators millions on polymarket crypto markets, billions on indian options and is an obvious design flaw of @papertrade_xyz

[Googly 👀 @0xG00gly]

Not really an exploit, it's a well known limitation of that type of designs.

It then boils down to how it's mitigated, which imo they are able to do. Just will be a game of cat and mouse.

On a fully different note, a fully unrelated chart from 2022:

[BrutalBTC @BrutalBTC]

Just a reminder to what happened exactly a year ago.

10/10 is nastier than 9/11.

[Henrik @Henrik_on_HL]

$95 -> $82 in less than 48h is criminal lmao

[tsybka @tsybka]

If you're trading on Polymarket solely for a potential airdrop, congrats, you're the dumbest person in the world.

[Havoc.hl 𝕏 @Havochl_]

Did Jeff just tease season 3??

[enzo @enzo_gte]

In Singapore Jeff is quite literally Jesus.

Haven’t seen something like this since SBF in 2021.

Hyperliquid.

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

This is very misleading marketing !

Polymarket wrongly claim they make 4x the revenue of Hyperliquid.

In reality they make 1/4th Hyperliquid's revenue.

they are trying to paint the picture that $POLY will be much bigger than $HYPE but the comparison is dishonest.

let me explain why :

- they specifically picked two weekend days for the comparison when they know that Polymarket is bigger on weekends while Hyperliquid makes more on weekdays.

When taken over the last two months here are the real revenues

Polymarket : $164M
Hyperliquid : $169M

- They mix revenues from Polymarket International + US but there is no way a $Poly token would have claims on value generated by Polymarket US. A fair $poly / $HYPE token value comparison would only count Polymarket international's revenue.

so fairer comparison is :

Polymarket : $67M
Hyperliquid : $169M

- but that's actually GROSS REVENUE ! Which means you have to take out maker/taker rebates (~$25.5M) and LP rewards (~$7.5M) Polymarket paid to get net revenue.

so it's actually more like :

Polymarket : $34M
Hyperliquid : $134M (-$35M rebates)

So we went from claiming that Polymarket makes 4x more revenue than Hyperliquid to a more realistic estimates of 1/4th their revenue.

Not let's look at the token valuation part :

- $HYPE is not a $86B token. $HYPE's FDV is $86B but with >30% circulating supply it's actual marketcap is only $26B

- Polymarket has equity valued at $21B. Tokenholders will have to share value with equity holders so it's not like $poly would capture 100% of the platform's value like $HYPE does (not even close imo).

so on this side too there is a lot of misrepresentation.

I hope we get an airdrop and i hope it will be big but these comparisons with @HyperliquidX are not made in good faith

[Jake @JakeTheLarp]

Sorry to break it to you… but there’s no $POLY token.

[Jack Booth @jbfxdotme]

@shayne_coplan @dylanorrell Looking forward to polymarket announcing 99% of its revenue will go to POLY buybacks

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

@jbfxdotme @shayne_coplan @dylanorrell this.

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

@shayne_coplan perhaps you should say this is misleading.

polymarket revenue after rebates is a fifth of hype’s..

💀😘

[Shayne Coplan 🦅 @shayne_coplan]

I may have a little something to say about this at Token 2049. See you in Singapore.

🔮

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

@MatthewModabber @zscdao account for rebates 💀💀😘

[Internet Child @0xinternetchild]

🚨 Today we're exposing Car (@CarOnPolymarket)

Polymarket's most visible KOL

Still a Polymarket "community mod".

Also, the biggest extractor in the space, using:

-- Bot accounts funded by his wallet within seconds of creation
-- UMA oracle manipulation on his own bets
--Callouts, then deleted tweets

All while booking $1.5M+ in Polymarket profit

It is not AI slop. All data is verifiable and published.

Let's dive in 👇

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🛡️ FIRST, THE BADGE

Polymarket's own API, today (30 Sep 2026):
"name": "Car" · "verifiedBadge": true · "communityMod": true

Check it yourself 👉
https://t.co/ydfhlE9acT

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🔮 THE MACHINE

In July 2024, Car's wallet sent an empty wallet 888 USDC.e.

That was the birth of what we call the "oracle wallet".

Over the next two years, Car's wallet sent 899,389 USDC.e through Polymarket's own bridge, plus 39,299 USDC.e directly.

8 more wallets belonging to Car filed 235 proposals and 45 disputes on 264 markets.

He was using them to vote for his bags

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

1️⃣ "I HOLD 40K YES SHARES" · Apr 23, 2026

02:04 UTC, Car on X: "I hold 40K YES shares."
02:15, the oracle wallet proposes YES on "US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22?". Car holds 44,785 Yes.
It gets disputed within 22 seconds. UMA's voters rule it "Too Early".
02:45, flying-wheel, an account funded with $100,000 of Car's money two days earlier, starts buying the other side: $135,405 of NO.
The market resolves NO. flying-wheel cashes out $142,829.

2️⃣ HIS BEST MARKET EVER · Jun 14, 2026

"US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15?"
Car buys $37,126 of Yes as the price climbs from 26¢ to 77¢.
82 seconds after his last fill, the oracle wallet proposes Yes.
Car in the comments: "Proposed to Yes. This market will resolve to Yes in about 2 hours."
Profit: +$45,376. His best market ever.

3️⃣ THE PUMP · Jul 3, 2026

"US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3?" There was no meeting.
10 hours before the deadline, the oracle wallet proposes YES anyway. Car holds 2,577 Yes.
The price jumps from ~20¢ to 30-35¢. He sells every single share into the jump.
UMA: Too Early. The market resolves No.

👉 That's 3 of 280 oracle actions.
The site has 7 second-by-second replays and 100 timeline events, including:
• a correct answer the oracle wallet disputed while Car bought $98K of it
• bond money wired to him by traders holding his side
• a proposal the oracle wallet disputed itself

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🤖 THE ACCOUNTS

Car has at least 16 Polymarket accounts. They got their first dollar from Car's wallet, or from a wallet it funds, minutes after they were created.

15mmarketslol: 48 seconds. flying-wheel: 63. notworthit: 65. inshallahthisworks: 66. plzmoneyyyy: 100.

Some trade like machines: lolzzzlol made 141,555 trades; plzmoneyyyy made 6,962 in 18 hours.
Some trade with him: CarComboCup crossed Car's orders 24 times in 33 minutes and handed him exactly $1,601.50.
And the money comes home: $463,515 back to Car.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

🗣️ WHAT HE SAYS vs WHAT HE DOES

On X, he told everyone: "I am not associated with Polymarket. I am a normal trader."
He was already wearing Polymarket's badge. A month later, he announced, "I'm now the first and only verified account on @Polymarket", 16 minutes BEFORE Polymarket announced verified accounts.

In market comments, he taunted anyone who challenged his wallet's answers:
💬 "instead of disputing you could also just donate 750$ to me"
Three Yes holders later paid him exactly 187.5 each. A quarter of the bond.

On another market:
💬 "I proposed this and im gonna push this through."

When a wallet his money funds disputed a proposal, he wrote:
💬 "i didnt dispute it. but i will dispute the second one"
A trader replied: "You did. It's your address lol"
77 minutes later his wallet sent the disputing wallet $555. Just enough for another bond. It disputed the second one.

Healso ran a sponsored ad for a UMA voting pool that "resolves Polymarket disputes", while the oracle wallet held a seat on UMA's approved-proposer list.
🗑️ Then he deleted it.

━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━

On Sep 6, after four monthly checks under UMA's own 95% accuracy bar, UMA removed the oracle wallet.
Polymarket still shows him ✅ verified and 🛡️ a community mod. He's still trading.

@Polymarket @UMAprotocol

DETAILS HERE:

https://t.co/6ZtjgxlnA4

[eric @econoar]

dafuq are you guys doing out there?

[Maven.HL @MavenHL]

Thank you, Jeff, for funding Hyperliquid out of your own pocket.

Thank you, Jeff, for claiming 15-25x less than the monthly unlock calendars.

Thank you, Jeff, for OTCing a year of vesting into hundreds of millions of buy pressure.

Thank you, Jeff, for making sure VCs aren’t dumping bags on $HYPE holders.

Thank you, Jeff, for routing ~99% of fees into buybacks.

Thank you, Jeff, for changing my life.

Thank you, Jeff, for making sure we keep winning.

[luxcrypto @LuxCryptoWeb3]

Polymarket revenue is a fifth of Hyperliquid.

and you @CarOnPolymarket are a joke:

you compared fees without then accounting for rebates,

then bought interactions and called it a day.

[Car @CarOnPolymarket]

Polymarket vs. Hyperliquid weekly revenue:

- Polymarket: $23M (new ATH)
- Hyperliquid: $19M

$HYPE market cap: $21.71B
Polymarket: No token