Hours before the Pakistan PM's announcement, it all seemed doomed...almost.
It was around 3:40 PM Pakistan time on Sunday when reports emerged of Israeli strikes in Beirut. In Washington, it was still nighttime. Just a day earlier, Trump had announced that a virtual peace deal with Iran would be signed on Sunday.
Iran, however, had yet to formally commit to the timeline, although both Islamabad and Washington remained hopeful.
The fresh Israeli strikes in parts of Beirut suddenly set off alarm bells. It was clear that Netanyahu intended to derail the peace process. Iran began threatening retaliation while some Israeli journalists were already reporting that Iranian missiles could be heading toward Israel.
The idea of a virtual signing had emerged precisely because an in-person ceremony would take time to arrange and could provide spoilers with an opportunity to undermine the process.
But the Beirut attack now threatened even the virtual deal.
Iran refused to sign immediately, insisting that it would first observe Israel's behavior before committing to the accord.
That triggered serious concern in Islamabad and other capitals that had invested heavily in the diplomatic effort and were eager to carry it across the finish line.
That was when Pakistan reached out to all stakeholders, particularly Iran, with a proposal... if Tehran was unwilling to sign the deal virtually, then at least agree on an exact date, time, and venue for the formal ceremony.
After some initial hesitation, Tehran agreed.
Soon afterward, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif posted a statement on X announcing that a peace deal had been reached. Iran and the United States had agreed to end military operations across all fronts, including Lebanon.
The message was deliberate to make it clear to Israel and hardliners elsewhere that the deal would happen, come what may.
Pakistan had managed to salvage the situation at the last minute.
And this was not the only moment when it felt as though the entire process was about to collapse. There were several other occasions when the prospects looked bleak.
Those details, however, I have saved for a more important assignment.
And when they eventually come out, they will make for a fascinating read.
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Fact Check
The victim was a Pakistani citizen, not a French tourist. Claiming otherwise is a blatant misrepresentation of the facts.
The crime occurred in Pakistan, and the perpetrators were prosecuted, convicted, and sentenced to death by a Pakistani court.
Portraying a Pakistani woman as a French tourist is journalistic dishonesty.
No history? U surrendered Persia to Alexander with a walkover in 4th Century BC, while the chest wound that killed him slowly was given to him in Multan by the ferocious Malhi Jutt Clans of Punjab, after he was humbled on the banks of Jhelum by Porus. Ignorant Pahlavist Moron !!
Finally the kind of role models Pakistani youth needs: Sualeh Arif.
Not property dealers, tax evaders, bank defaulters, rent seekers, born into wealth etc.
But a self-made kid from a middle-class family in Karachi. Studied at MIT, started a hugely impactful company, changed the way people write code, now worth over $ 1 Billion at the age of 26!
https://t.co/rLzJibEWcb
In intensive talks at highest level in 47 years, Iran engaged with U.S in good faith to end war.
But when just inches away from "Islamabad MoU", we encountered maximalism, shifting goalposts, and blockade.
Zero lessons earned
Good will begets good will.
Enmity begets enmity.
So, a couple of the boys have been texting me: “Why the hell would Trump drop the Hormuz blockade bomb on a Sunday? It’ll send oil screaming past $120, maybe $130 if the algos really panic. Makes zero sense if you actually want cheaper barrels.”
But it makes perfect sense. Beautiful, even.
See, Tokyo and Hong Kong are already humming by the time the East Coast is still nursing its coffee. Those futures pits—Dow, S&P, the whole equity complex, plus Brent and WTI on the screens—never really sleep. You’ve got fourteen, fifteen hours of runway before the New York bell. Plenty of time for the right hands to lean in: long the indices in Hong Kong, short the crude in Tokyo, riding the fear wave as the blockade tweet lights up every terminal from Singapore to Sydney.
Then, right on cue, before the U.S. opens, comes the pivot. Something about “there’s regime change in Tehran,” “we can do business,” “Talks were Good,” the usual art-of-the-deal baloney. Markets whip around like they’ve been Tasered. Oil gives back the spike, stocks rip higher. The boys in Asia unwind clean, pocket the spread.
A few hundred million, maybe more, conjured out of thin air on the back of one perfectly timed Sunday morning post. Not bad for a morning’s work. The Street’s been running these kinds of games for decades: information, timing, leverage. Just never quite so… presidential!!
The Islamabad Talks is "not an event but a process."
The Islamabad Talks laid the foundation for a diplomatic process that, if trust and will are strengthened, can create a sustainable framework for the interests of all parties.
I would like to express my gratitude to the friendly and brotherly county of Pakistan, especially H.E. Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif and Field Marshal Asim Munir, for their initiative of goodwill and good office for the talks.
With the tireless efforts of all sectors in Pakistan, including the government, army, police and security forces to facilitate and manage the talks, talks were held in a dignified and befitting atmosphere for the guests in a calm, orderly and secure environment with equal logistic opportunities for both sides.
The Iranian high ranking negotiating team, with dignity, self-confidence and faith in Allah Almighty and attention to the concerns of the people, pursued dignified talks for the great Iranian nation to ensure and secure the national interests and legitimate rights of the people.
We were never going to get a comprehensive agreement with Iran in one day. Nearly 24 hours of talks is a lot, but it’s only 24 hours. It took Obama 2+ years to get the JCPOA. You weren’t going to solve nuclear, sanctions, Strait of Hormuz and terms to end the war in 21 hours.
VP Vance sounded pissed, and from what I’ve heard, it doesn’t seem like he’s really amenable to continuing the talks (we all know Trump is impatient). He basically gave Iran an ultimatum: accept our terms because you’re not going to get a better agreement.
The fact that Iran is still rejecting U.S. demands despite 6 weeks of war shows just how confident it is right now.
@s_m_marandi@SyedAliAqa Welcome to our beautiful country, Professor Marandi. You are a hero to the Pakistani nation for your courage to speak truth to power and for eloquently exposing the lies of empire. Wish you the best!
US-Iran backdoor diplomacy prior to the formal talks has produced some "core understandings", say informed sources. "30 mnts to 3 days" is what may take to formalise a broad agreement. Trump will be happy if the Strait of Hormuz opens fully; the Iranians will be okay if the ceasefire becomes permanent with solid guarantees of no more attacks and the sanctions regime against them is diluted. The nuclear issue can be an "ongoing dialogue". Expect no leaks or incremental information during the talks. Best case scenario: A photo. Two statements from both sides. Pakistan statement thanking both. May be, just may be a FO briefing saying very little.
How Pakistan made the world over 3 trillion dollars richer
On April 7, the world edged toward Trump's 8pm ultimatum that "a whole civilization will die tonight." By mid-afternoon, Polymarket gave less than a 5% chance for a ceasefire. But then in a flurry of last-minute diplomacy led by Pakistan's PM Shehbaz Sharif, ceasefire odds shifted from near-impossibility to 100%, as both U.S. and Iranian leadership publicly acknowledged the important role played by Pakistan.
The sharp shift in probability of ceasefire from near-zero to certainty, allows us to estimate cleanly the market value of Pakistan's successful diplomacy. There was a sharp jump of 2.9% in S&P500 around the ceasefire announcement. The reaction was similar the world over.
Global markets represent about $125T, so a 2.9% jump represents a gain of 3.6 trillion dollars for the world. Pakistan helped create TEN times its own GDP for the world!
For me, the best part is not the trillions of dollar, but seeing Pakistan on the world stage as a peace maker.
I hope Pakistan runs with this new identity by promoting peace not only abroad, but also at home. That means moving away from politics of division and exclusion, and treating every citizen as its own.
Had a most warm and cordial telephone conversation with Chancellor Friedrich Merz of the Federal Republic of Germany today.
I expressed my appreciation for Germany’s endorsement and support for Pakistan’s sincere diplomatic efforts that helped secure the Iran–U.S. ceasefire and pave the way for peace talks in Islamabad.
We agreed on the critical importance of upholding the ceasefire so that negotiations may lead to meaningful and lasting outcomes.
We also shared deep concern over the ongoing hostilities in Lebanon and expressed the hope that peace would soon return to the entire region.
@bundeskanzler
Just spoke with Prime Minister @CMShehbaz of Pakistan. I congratulated him on his efforts in facilitating the ceasefire between Iran and the United States.
I assured him of Austria’s full support for a diplomatic solution to end the war. Freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with international law must be ensured.
It is imperative that all sides stick to what has been agreed upon, fully implement the ceasefire across the region and cease all military operations. (BK)
📸 BKA/ Schrötter
Joint statement by President Macron, Prime Minister Meloni, Chancellor Merz, Prime Minister Starmer, Prime Minister Carney, Prime Minister Frederiksen, Prime Minister Jetten, Prime Minister Sanchez, President of the European Commission von der Leyen, President of the European Council Costa on the ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
Our full statement ⬇️
https://t.co/SDePdrxgnj
What a country !! Took a loan from the IMF, then stopped a potential World War, also attacked Afghanistan, talked ceasefire with China, then became a Global Peacemaker, also stood with Iran, then condemned attack on KSA, then negotiated with Trump while the nation watched PSL.