At dinner with an FX trader and an investment banker.
The FX guy asked, ‘What are the fundamentals of crypto?’
Banker: ‘There are none. A memecoin and an altcoin are the same.’
At that moment, it hit me— TradFi still doesn’t understand crypto.
Here’s why they’re wrong... 🧵
@robprogressive @SpencerKingham some Eton graphic designer dropout is proudly showing this off in some members club as we speak, bragging about their elite skills
@robprogressive the dot makes it look like "Govuk". Apt - since 99% of the British people would like to tell the people behind this to Govuk themselves
@tradingview@TradeStation Could you kindly make it possible to contact a human at TV? You have double debited my account subscription fee and it is impossible to get in touch.
So this is the playbook for the Fed tonight and how it plays out over coming weeks
Fed cut 25bps (quite possibly 50bps)
Market chops as we all look at the dots and forecasts forgetting that the previous dots were wrong and quite useless
Then JPow speaks
He’ll note a softer labour market than previously thought, but inflation remains above target and economy generally looks ok but the downside risks to the labour increasing are why they cut
Lots of ink will be spilt on was it a hawkish cut or a dovish cut and which one is bearish or bullish for markets
If we initially knee jerk higher, markets will get levered long at the highs and all get washed out
If we initially knee jerk lower, markets will get levered short at the lows and all get washed out
Everyone chopped up, casino wins
Then things settle down
Calmer heads will note that whilst Labour market clearly soft, economy is slowing not collapsing and in fact recent data suggests still resilient
Inflation sticky but not accelerating
Then we realise that markets are a function of rates and liquidity and the rate environment just got easier
Yields lower and dollar weaker are reflexively positive for risk
The big money then over the next few weeks start to deploy real capital and everything melts up
Funds under positioned risk throw the towel and forced to chase
Bitcoin and broader crypto finally catches up to the risk move and we push to 150k BTC into November, 6k ETH and broader alts all pumping
Bears in despair, bulls “just got lucky”
Something strange is happening with crypto rn...
The number of flash crashes since Jan has risen too sharply
Market just erased over $300B in a day without any bearish sentiment
I spent ~40h researching all the data: Here is why this is happening and what will be next🧵👇
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Welcome, to the Lore of Machines. 🧙♂️✨