Lauren Goodwin

Economist, asset allocator (New York Life Investments), tea connoisseur. Views are my own. Likes & retweets are not endorsements.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Happy #Fed week, everyone. Given unrelenting focus on #inflation risk, we expect a final 25 bps this week. What could upset that view? FOMC gets senior bank loan survey data before the meeting... and before we bystanders. If we get a surprise, that data will be why...

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Happy #CPI day. Prices decelerating, but looking sticky. The #bond market is now pricing more-or-less what the Fed says it will do: 25 basis points in March and May. Equities, on the other hand, have continued their relief rally; #Fed resolve is being underpriced.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Check out this twitter spaces conversation at 2pm EST with myself, @JuliaCHermann & @Macro_Mike_. After years of unanticipated risks, we did some thought work around what might disrupt consensus in 2023. Full piece is here: https://t.co/aBdPeUtMbD

https://t.co/SY9bigcxxy

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Why not spend an already uncertain year noodling what could disrupt it further? Super cool new disruptive risks piece out from my team: https://t.co/aBdPeUtMbD

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Central banking people: colleagues at @MacKayShields conducted groundbreaking research on whether Fed programs have permanently repriced credit. Takeaways (so far): the Fed put is dead, but euro area credit appears repriced. Stellar convo here: https://t.co/PwRJgCTPhn

[Macrobond @MacrobondAI]

Join our #webinar as macroeconomics pundits from @BNYMellon, @NYLInvestments and @MacKayShields discuss the potential for a very different business cycle in 2023, including prospects for a #Fed pivot.

Register here: https://t.co/zNSkl5ZfHr

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Black swan alert. Too soon to tell, but we just put together our list of risks that could break consensus in 2023. Yesterday, the #BoJ beat us to it. Here is an excerpt from our piece, discussing what materialized today and exploring the ripple effects it may have.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

For those coming in from spaces, our 2023 Outlook & recession playbook is here: https://t.co/aki6QCP2do

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Powell just punched back with the numbers. "19 people filled out the SEP, and 17 expect a terminal rate above 5.0%". Of course, we're parsing basis points here. To me, what's more important is how long we stay at that terminal rate. But he's doing his best to signal hawkishness.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

I was watching a few factors in today's Fed materials to gauge how to read it. Looks straight ticket hawkish to me.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Markets don't believe the Fed can get there, by the way... curve pricing points to a terminal rate below 5.0%

[CNBCOvertime @CNBCOvertime]

"I'm going to be looking for a couple of very specific things out of tomorrow to determine whether the [Fed] policy path ahead has shifted as a result of today's CPI report," says @NYLInvestments' Lauren Goodwin.
Here's what Lauren's keeping her eye on:

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

I don't typically use Twitter as an interview hub but this one from yesterday was one of my favorites ever. Thanks @JonErlichman for the stellar questions. https://t.co/EV8JDvx4y4

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

As we look ahead to 2023, one thing appears certain: this cycle will look very different from the last. Investors’ allocations may need to shift in response. Here we share some all-weather strategies and our high-conviction ideas for as the cycle turns. https://t.co/aki6QD6D4W

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Even for this DC alum, our latest Market Matters guests dropped some serious policy knowledge. SO much fun. Thanks for joining, ladies. @JenGShapiro @JuliaCHermann Listen here or wherever you pod: https://t.co/Oc9QZCersm

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

@WinMonroe Haha omg

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Headed into @CNBC to talk stocks with @ScottWapnerCNBC. It’s been a quarter of transition equities - top line still strong, but slowing and with increasing bottom line pressure.

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Love the broadcast cheat sheet!

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

Easy to talk about #volatility these days - in either direction. Loved talking solutions with @JonErlichman yesterday + our views on crypto: https://t.co/bYIQEjQZ65

[Lauren Goodwin @macroLG]

@WinMonroe