Ben | Contrarian Investing

Sharing contrarian perspectives for retail investors | Building MacroBiscuit | Writing a book | United Kingdom

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

Everyone on X is suddenly a geopolitical expert the last few days.

I’m sticking to what I know - watching for market divergences and staying disciplined through volatility.

Leave the war analysis to people who actually understand this stuff.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@TheSecretAcct Oil and USD it seems. Gold often goes down at first during mass liquidations like these…

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@DeItaone Bitcoin rallying alongside gold during geopolitical shock.

Acting more like a hedge than a risk asset today...

Divergence from recent correlation patterns - one to watch.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@JavierBlas Great chart context. Today's spike looks dramatic until you see the Russia/Ukraine comparison.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@EPBResearch 100%, just posted something similar.

Geopolitical shocks create headlines and short-term volatility, but rarely change the underlying situation.

Markets overreact to the drama, then mean revert to fundamentals. This is where divergences and opportunities can appear.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

Iran headlines are dominating everything. I'm watching, not trading right now.

Geopolitical shocks tend to create short-term divergences between price and fundamentals. That's when opportunities appear, not in the initial panic.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@LairdElmski Profit is profit!

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@TheSecretAcct The thought of handing over control of my diary and scheduling to someone else has always terrified me.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@cashflow_king94 Agree it's easier than it's ever been.

Wish the platforms and instruments were this advanced when I first started investing...

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@themotleyfool The contrarian in me wonders if this is a late-cycle indicator...

Search interest peaking after a massive run? That's usually when retail enters, as opposed to smart money.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@awealthofcs Interesting. Presumably this is partly because there are more over 55s with an aging population?

Be interesting to see their share on a like for like basis.

Also any views on how this compares with other developed economies?

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@VladTheInflator Love seeing this because everyone acts like buying is always the answer.

In reality it depends on the period, location, rates, and what else you could do with the capital. No universal rule.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@Barchart 2/3 of stocks beating the index.

This is exactly why equal-weight indices matter right now. Cap-weighted gives you concentration, equal-weight gives you actual breadth.

Historic opportunity for diversification to work.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@tracyalloway @bespokeinvest Pretty wild to see.

Feels like this unwind could run for some time given the levels of US outperformance we’ve had in recent years.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@Barchart Unfortunately still costs the earth at my local cafe!

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@ekwufinance The cure for low price is low prices, playing out.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@KevRGordon Tbf the S&P had a lot of catching up to do after the previous 5 years.

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@ekwufinance 💯

[Ben | Contrarian Investing @macro_ben]

@themarketear Premium at 10-year lows. I think this trend probably has room to continue, but this is definitely one to watch. Could create a nice setup in due course.