felix

connecting the dots between global events and market price. tracking liquidity, rates, and fx. data over narrative

[felix @macro_context]

4th time at this level, the last 3 all faded

[Barchart @Barchart]

30-Year Yield Breaking Out 📈 📈

[Barchart @Barchart]

Semiconductor Stocks have fallen below their 50-day moving average for the first time since April 🚨 🚨

[felix @macro_context]

The AI race is showing up in leases now.

Data center commitments are stacking fast with future leases topping $850B.

Bullish for infrastructure demand but also a reminder: Capex cycle around AI is getting very expensive

$MSFT $META $GOOGL $AMZN $ORCL

[felix @macro_context]

@rohanpaul_ai when 5 companies out spend the defense budget on one bet, the whole economy is now hostage to pay it off, no middle outcome left

[felix @macro_context]

@BullTheoryio Korea has become one of the clearest places where the AI and semiconductor trade is showing up outside the U.S.

[felix @macro_context]

@KobeissiLetter Governments keep leaning on bond markets while hoping growth and lower rates clean up the math later, the risk is investors demand a higher term premium before budgets actually improve

[felix @macro_context]

$GOOGL is preparing a massive funding push for the AI buildout.

The plan includes $30B through stock and preferred shares, plus a $40B at-the-market program starting in Q3 2026.

[felix @macro_context]

@dailyincomegain AI keeps leading, wonder for how long the will be doing that

[felix @macro_context]

Micron $MU , extends gains to rise above $1,000/share for the first time in history, now worth nearly $1.2 trillion.

[felix @macro_context]

S&P 500 closed higher at 7,473.47, up 0.37%.

Green day, but the late fade kept it from feeling like a clean breakout.

[felix @macro_context]

@OliverRakau Feels like the ECB is getting more room to breathe. Softer wages and job vacancies make it harder to argue for staying too tight.

[felix @macro_context]

@TriumphMarkets Feels like the bond market is saying the U.S. has to pay up now, and that pressure does not stay contained to Treasuries

[felix @macro_context]

Thoughts on AMD?

[Daily Income Gains @dailyincomegain]

AMD is having one of those quarters that changes the whole conversation.

The stock is up 19% today, hit a new all-time high, and added more than $110B in market value in one session.

Why the reaction?
Data Center revenue reached $5.8B, up 57% YoY.
Q2 guidance came in at $11.2B.
Management also secured more TSMC capacity to meet server demand.

The market is clearly pricing AMD as a much bigger AI infrastructure player now.

[felix @macro_context]

Software engineering jobs hit their highest posting since november 2023, is AI creating more jobs?

[felix @macro_context]

@unusual_whales Inflated peak prices are finally showing their long-term impact, being upside down on a rapidly depreciating asset is a difficult financial trap to escape

[felix @macro_context]

@KobeissiLetter That gap between spending and income growth is entirely funded by depleting savings and expanding consumer credit. This trend has a strict mathematical limit.

[felix @macro_context]

There is a major financial story brewing today with the BBC reporting what looks like insider trading happening within the administration just before big official announcements are made.

Whenever you have market activity front-running official news, it naturally raises a lot of red flags. The timing of these trades is definitely going to put a microscope on exactly who has access to market-moving information before the public does.

It will be really interesting to see if any official regulatory probes get launched over this. Do you think this will actually impact the markets, or just fade away?

[felix @macro_context]

The cost of keeping the lights on is surging across the US right now. Average electricity prices just hit a record high of 17.3 cents per kilowatt-hour this year, with some regions like eastern Pennsylvania seeing absolutely massive spikes.

A lot of this comes back to the massive energy requirements of our new tech infrastructure. Between the rapid expansion of data centers, electric vehicles, and heat pumps, summer power demand is projected to skyrocket over the next decade. Unfortunately, a lot of those infrastructure costs are trickling down to everyday customer bills.

It is definitely an economic issue that isn't getting enough attention. How much has your monthly power bill gone up over the last couple of years?

[felix @macro_context]

@charliebilello basically, the algorithms trading the S&P 500 are having an absolutely fantastic year, and actual human beings are completely exhausted 😂

[felix @macro_context]

@KobeissiLetter buyers refuse 7% interest rates, and sellers are finally realizing they missed the 2022 peak, the great housing standoff is officially breaking