Iron Nuts

HF PM G10 / EM Rates

[Abyzon @Abyzonn]

HARVARD FILMED THE FIRST LECTURE OF THEIR MOST POPULAR STATISTICS COURSE - TAUGHT BY A PROFESSOR WHOSE STUDENTS CALL HIM THE BEST TEACHER THEY HAVE EVER HAD - AND IT PROVES WHY EVEN ISAAC NEWTON GOT PROBABILITY WRONG

This is Joe Blitzstein, Harvard, Statistics 110, lecture 1. He has won Harvard's Excellence in Teaching award multiple times, his textbook Introduction to Probability is used in over 200 universities worldwide, and his online course has been taken by over 2 million people across 190 countries. He opens by saying that after a few weeks of this course you will easily solve calculations that 300 years ago required consulting Isaac Newton - and Newton's intuition was still wrong.

He traces probability to Fermat and Pascal writing letters back and forth in the 1650s analyzing gambling games. No one had mathematically derived the rules before. They invented the subject by betting on dice in correspondence. Then he shows why the naive definition - probability equals favorable outcomes divided by total outcomes - breaks immediately. Ask what the probability of life on Neptune is. Either there is or there isn't. By the naive definition the answer is 1/2. So is the probability of intelligent life on Neptune. Something is severely wrong.

Then the multiplication rule. Two types of ice cream cone and three flavors gives 6 combinations - not because you memorized it but because you can draw a tree and count branches. Every counting problem in the course is just a bigger version of that tree. Then binomial coefficients - n choose k counts the number of ways to select k objects from n when order doesn't matter. The full house in poker falls out in 4 lines of multiplication once you understand the tree.

Watch the moment he fills in the sampling table - with or without replacement, order matters or doesn't. Three of the four boxes are immediate from the multiplication rule. The fourth requires a proof he saves for next lecture. That one box is harder than the other three combined.

A data scientist I know rewatched this lecture before switching careers into statistics. Said it was the first time probability felt like a system with rules rather than a collection of tricks.

Free on YouTube, Harvard, over 2 million views.

bookmark this and watch later - after this lecture you will never again confuse equally likely with obviously true

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

A little overstated I think --

a) When Japan intervenes, it either uses the proceeds of a bond portfolio that has a high level of quarterly roll off, or sells the "belly" of the curve (Japan mostly holds 2s and 5s I think ... )

[Herod Priovolos @herodpriovolos]

Listen, Christopher Nolan.
I stand with Homer’s Odyssey, not with a modern version created to make Odysseus easier for us to forgive. You say you did not mean to Christianize the story. But when the Trojan Horse becomes a source of guilt, the journey home becomes penance, and a warrior hungry for glory becomes ashamed of who he is, I have to wonder: are we still watching Homer’s hero, or a modern man sent to therapy in ancient armour?
Yes, Xenia matters. But so do kleos, timē, metis and nostos: glory, honour, cunning and the unbearable desire to return home.
Homer’s Odysseus is proud, violent, brilliant, selfish, loyal, wounded and deeply human. He is not asking the audience to approve of him. He is trying to reclaim his wife, his son, his home and the name the world almost took from him.
I do not need Odysseus to be more likeable. I need him to be recognizable.
Perhaps great stories are not supposed to make us comfortable. Perhaps they survive because they force us to face people whose values are not our own.
You borrowed Homer’s seas, his gods and his hero, but gave Odysseus the conscience of another age.
And I couldn’t help but wonder: when we rewrite the past until it finally agrees with us, are we bringing Homer to life or simply putting him on trial?

[Nicolas Camara @nickscamara_]

we built pdf-inspector so agents can process PDFs without waiting on OCR. it classifies any PDF in ~20ms and extracts clean markdown locally

→ 200 PDFs processed in 2.8s
→ top quality in extracting tables + graphs
→ built in rust
→ open source

https://t.co/Wjp9kpTHXJ

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

Interesting. Not for what it says. But for what it maybe implies.

Under the nominal leadership of the clerics, the new radical leadership of the regime 3.0 would have to share power with the pragmatists?

[Open Source Intel @Osint613]

It’s finally here.

SHADOW FLEET is officially live.

Our first video exposes how the Islamic regime moves oil and evades sanctions through its global shadow fleet.

This is the first of many.

Watch it, please share it, and let us know what you think.
https://t.co/N8zMchXupE

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

Thanks to the miracle of modern technology, my discussion of the second China shock with Markus Brunnermeier is available in German as well as English ...

[John Cochrane @JohnHCochrane]

Excellent analysis. It was once a "puzzle" (Feldstein-Horioka) that countries financed investment from domestic saving. Now that we have big trade flows financing savings vs. investment just like the models said, it's an "imbalance." Not just fiscal deficits, but many transfers, consumption subsidies, and saving taxes push US to consumption. Econ 1: Real effects are usually more important than monetary policies, especially over decades.

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

https://t.co/Mr1eRvfcQW

[Miles Deutscher @milesdeutscher]

Claude now acts as my personal Chief of Investments.

My agents have access to live market data, my entire portfolio, my personal finance goals, and more.

I broke the entire system down here (copy me):

[Oliver Wiedmaier @Ollie_AllCaps]

One exercise changed my trading more than any book ever did.

I basically did exposure therapy... for trading.

For one full week, I sat in front of my screens and watched breakout after breakout rip higher. And I wasn't allowed to buy a single one.

Every impulse, every bit of FOMO, every urge to click the buy button... I just sat with it until it passed.

I wanted to prove to myself that I could watch an opportunity leave without me and still be perfectly okay.

That week rewired my brain.

[Policy Tensor @policytensor]

We agree that there are only unattractive options; in particular, there is no military solution to the crisis. Prosecuting the war is not going to get him anywhere.

We disagree on US politics. I think you expect too much of Congress. The presidency enjoys great autonomy on foreign policy. Congress will defer to him. JD can do the rounds and sell the deal. We already know the playbook. The neocons will grumble, no doubt. But he can take it. This should be within his political tolerance.

Walking away is really not an option. Iran would immediately become the regional hegemon of the Gulf, dictating terms as it sees fit. It will then become a global oil hegemon, controlling half the world’s proven oil reserves and a third of natural gas. Iran will acquire a preponderant position in the Middle East and become a world power, as Pape suggests.

The only tolerable way out of this mess is to a positive sum deal that ties the hands of both sides so a working order can be constructed that secures US interests and incentivizes Iran to not exploit its power position.

The contours of the deal are clear. Snap inspections and down-blending. Unimpeded traffic through Hormuz, perhaps with a tollbooth but non-discriminatory transit (Iran should not be allowed to use the Hormuz weapon as a scalpel). Full sanctions relief and a path back to security and prosperity for Iran.

This is the price the US now has to pay. There is no real alternative. Trump can try this and that but all channels of compellence are blocked. He can refuse to face up to reality, but that will only get him deeper into the soup.

[Stefan. @paradeevic]

A BBC interviewer asked a Nobel physicist the simplest question in the world: why do two magnets push each other apart. He refused to answer it. What he did instead is the best seven minutes on thinking ever filmed.

The man is Richard Feynman, at home in 1983, no blackboard, no notes, sitting in an armchair.

He does not dodge because he cannot answer. He dodges because he wants you to see what the question is actually asking. So he takes an ordinary sentence, that a woman slipped on the ice and broke her hip, and starts asking why, and every answer opens another why, until the ground gives way.

Then he turns it around on the interviewer with a question about ice that sounds trivial and is not.

The point he arrives at is the uncomfortable one. Every explanation is only a translation into something you already accept without explanation. Magnets have no such translation. There is nothing more familiar than magnetism to reduce magnetism to, which is why every answer you were given at school was a picture, not a reason.

It matters more now than it did in 1983. Any tool will hand you a fluent answer in a second. Knowing which questions actually have a bottom is the part that is still yours.

One question. Seven minutes. It is in the video.

[Φίλιππος @phileeppos]

Don't usually like to pre-publish anything before the official count, but already today you can see another 10 million+ barrels heading for the exit of the Gulf of Oman. It's wild. If this hits will push the 7d average up another 1 mbpd to over 5 mbpd. A wild shift for two days.

[Superior @andreysuperior]

While everyone is building Obsidian second brains, this German developer built something that actually runs his business.

Seven workflows. A waiting list. Clients paying him to set up their own.

That's not a chatbot on his screen. It's his operations team. The one that doesn't sleep, doesn't forget, and doesn't need to be told the same thing twice.

He watched an AI build a full game on a single voice command in five seconds. Then it said: "One of us has to keep working."

A year ago he was doing all of it himself. Leads unanswered. Invoices unfollowed. Reports unfinished. Competitor moves nobody caught.

He talked to seven workflows instead. Described what he needed. They listened once and haven't stopped since. No prompt engineering. No re-explaining context. No starting from scratch every Monday morning.

The leads qualify themselves now. The invoices chase themselves. The reports arrive before anyone wakes up. The competitor intel lands every Friday whether anyone asked or not.

He checked in once this week.

The business hadn't noticed he was gone.

[chewa. @chewadot]

THE CEO OF OBSIDIAN JUST SHIPPED THE PATCH THAT LETS CLAUDE CODE DRIVE YOUR VAULT INSTEAD OF JUST READING IT. THE REPO PASSED 12,000 STARS BEFORE THE OFFICIAL ANNOUNCEMENT WENT UP

5 SKILL.md files. 1 MIT license. 0 lines of glue code

drop .claude/skills/ into any vault. Claude Code registers Markdown, Bases, Canvas, CLI, and Webclipper on next session boot

from that moment Claude opens the app, writes a Base view with the correct YAML, drops nodes on a Canvas, follows wikilinks correctly, clips URLs the way a power-user would. every action is a native Obsidian operation, not a text munge

three formats that used to require a plugin developer or a paid template. now they get emitted by the same agent that writes your notes

no MCP server. no vector db. no plugin store. no daemon in the background

three years since kepano wrote "File over app". now the file has an agent that respects it

you're reading this on a device that could clone the repo into your vault's .claude/skills/ folder and have Claude Code writing your first Base by lunch

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

https://t.co/SrWJeLMXDl

[Alejo @ecommartinez]

10 repositorios de GitHub para scrapear todo internet

Guárdalos todos. Cada uno extrae datos limpios de cualquier web. Ese nivel de acceso normalmente exige llamadas de ventas y contratos.

[CyrilXBT @cyrilXBT]

A 27-year-old connected Claude Code to more than 4,000 Obsidian notes and woke up to something unexpected:

An AI teammate.

Six years of ideas. Half-written essays. More than 200 book summaries. Thousands of thoughts buried inside a vault he hadn't seriously opened in years.

Then he realized something most people overlook.

Obsidian stores everything as plain Markdown files.

Claude Code runs directly in the terminal.

That means your entire knowledge base is just one `cd` command away from an AI that can read, analyze, and work across every note you've ever written.

So he let it run overnight.

By morning it had:

* Reconnected hundreds of orphaned notes into the knowledge graph.
* Found contradictions between beliefs he'd written years apart.
* Discovered forgotten ideas hidden across unrelated notes.
* Drafted multiple essays from patterns he never noticed himself.
* Suggested projects based on themes that kept appearing over six years.

Now it runs every night while he sleeps.

Every new note is automatically organized, tagged, linked, and connected to older ideas that would have been impossible to find manually.

Each morning, his daily note reminds him what he was thinking exactly one year ago, how those ideas evolved, and which assumptions no longer hold up.

The entire setup cost almost nothing.

Just a folder path.

One well-written `CLAUDE.md` file.

No plugins.

No expensive AI note-taking apps.

No monthly "second brain" subscription.

Most people spend years building knowledge vaults that eventually become digital graveyards.

He built one that keeps thinking long after he closes his laptop.

[Khairallah AL-Awady @eng_khairallah1]

this is f*cking gold

How to build your first AI agent (Full guide)

if I had this a year ago, I would've shipped my first agent in a day instead of 2 weeks

in the right hands, this changes everything: