Jackson

Building on the frontier of money, health, and work | Macro MAHA AI Bitcoin | Writing weekly | @onrampbitcoin | Last Trade Pod

[Jackson @macrojack21]

if you're all in on Bitcoin, you're seeing the major disruption in the workforce due to AI, but you're staying the course, building a sound life on sound money

then id love to have you join me here!

https://t.co/Ct9WY02Ujx

[Jackson @macrojack21]

only the droids can save us at this point, i hope you all realize that... good night

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

If Bitcoin is lower today than it was in April 2021, why should future returns be any better? What could possibly happen over the next five years that is more bullish for Bitcoin than what has already failed to move the needle over the past five years? The party is clearly over!

[Glenn Cameron @GlennOnrampBTC]

STRC is at $95.20 right now. That matters, and here’s why.

This is the security Saylor sells as stable, trades near $100. But it doesn’t sit near $100 by magic. $95.20 is right down in the zone where, by their own framework, management says they’d recommend cranking the dividend back up to drag the price toward par again.

So let’s talk about that mechanism, because anyone holding this stuff really needs to understand it. It’s called “the ratchet.”

When STRC slips below par, the only real lever they’ve got is the dividend. Fatten the yield, pull buyers back in, nudge the price back toward $100. Sounds clever. Here’s the problem. Every crank is basically permanent. You can’t quietly un-raise a dividend, because the price will drop, and you’re back at square one. So the annual cash bill just keeps climbing. And it’s already been hiked seven times since launch. 9% all the way to 11.5%.

Now ask where the cash for that growing bill comes from. They don’t make money from operations. So it comes from one of two places: issuing more stock, or selling Bitcoin.

See the trap? Price falls, they hike the dividend to defend par, the bill grows, bigger bill means more pressure to issue or sell. In a real downturn that’s not a flywheel. It’s a whirlpool.

And now watch the words, because this is where it gets Orwellian. Saylor used to say “I’ll never sell Bitcoin.” Full stop. Now it’s “I’ll never be a net seller.” Spot the move?

Net seller means he can absolutely sell. He just has to buy more than he sells, BUT AND HERE IS THE IMPORTANT BIT, Oney whatever period he decides to measure, which could be over the last 5 years, or the next twenty.

So the promise already got quietly reworded once to fit what they’re actually doing. The question is simple: does he hold even this watered-down version? Or do we get the next rewrite, where “net seller” becomes some fresh phrase that conveniently fits whatever the structure forces on them that month? We’ve seen this film before. The words keep changing to match the situation.

And here’s the kicker. Even the dividend hike isn’t a promise. It’s a “framework” where management says they’ll recommend a raise, subject to the board, and they can suspend or change it whenever they want. Saylor said it himself about the $100 peg: no legal obligation under the security, it’s just the company’s “number one business objective.” An objective. Not a guarantee.

Look, if you’re going to put money you worked hard for into these perpetual preferreds, at least understand what you’re actually holding. I wrote a full 78-page report breaking down the real risks of these things in proper detail. It’s linked in the first comment below. Read it before you buy, not after. Read the full length report. These are your savings, money you worked hard for.

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@mitchdmoore yeah thats not very fun is it?

[Jackson @macrojack21]

sentiment is worse than 2022

not because today's events are worse than the blow ups back then

but because expectations were sky high. Trump, a strategic reserve, ETFs, treasury companies

instead we're down 47% from the highs while everything else rips higher

[Jackson @macrojack21]

100% agree. But honestly, having more custodians reduces risk of total loss but also increases attack surface. If one of those were compromised there could be a rush for the exists on MSTR.

The only real way to solve for this is multi-institution custody

https://t.co/qX1Onf5PPy

[Jackson @macrojack21]

one thing I agree with Saylor on: proof of reserves doesn't actually make your Bitcoin any safer.

he took heat for calling it a parlor trick. He was right.

reserve ratio shows what a platform held yesterday.

it says nothing about whether you'll see it tomorrow. 👇

[Onramp @OnrampBitcoin]

Proof of reserves became the industry's response to FTX.

The largest custodial losses since then have all occurred at firms with PoR, multi-sig, or both.

The reports were accurate.

What they measure is not what determines whether your Bitcoin is safe.👇

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@Julian__Fahrer yikes yeah makes it even worse

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@TXMCtrades sure, but most people are index/passive investors, so they benefit from that, hence it feeling like an everything but BTC rally

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@cs_08_12 wouldn't make sense for me to have bulk of my NW in BTC at that point, that would imply that i am getting poorer every year

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@mcchiperson77 100% i was just kidding about this one

[Jackson @macrojack21]

hey Paul, my baby is preventing me from getting a perfect sleep score. what should i do?

[Matthew LaBosco @matthew_labosco]

Paul Saladino sleeps 9 hours straight. Perfect sleep score.

He just shared his exact stack on a podcast — 7 sleep biohacks he runs every night.

They all work for him.

But here's why you can do all 7 and still wake at 3 AM:

1. Keep bedroom CO2 below 900 ppm.

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@MisterLeeHODL hang in there, my friend

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@trudeveloper 100% that's well said and a good frame to think about this.

[Jackson @macrojack21]

in your opinion, is bitcoin still the fastest horse? why or why not?

said more plainly, how confident are you that bitcoin will outperform other major asset classes and the current fastest horse (AI / semis) over next 3, 5, 10 years?

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@SanRT1 nice i like that approach, thank you

[Jackson @macrojack21]

Bitcoin barely beating the S&P 500 on 5yr DCA

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@netesq fair point

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@JTornbury i hear ya, its a little different now bc it used to be as simple as measure any 4+ year period and youre in the green, but now negative on 5 year

your point stands though, nows a better time to buy

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@UpperEchelonUS We can disagree about Saylor/MSTR/Digital Credit and still agree on most Bitcoin related topics

[Jackson @macrojack21]

guys i think saylor is gonna send bitcoin to zero

[Quoth the Raven @QTRResearch]

don't worry, saylor only has 843,706 bitcoin left

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@PlanBpassport wow sounds like a good idea tbh

[Jackson @macrojack21]

@UpperEchelonUS dude it’s not a serious post. Not that deep man