Sam Baker

Research Analyst @River
Author of
Previously Markets and Mining @galaxydigitalhq , @Citi Digital Assets

[Sam Baker @macromule]

I've been asked countless times what I think of "X" coin or "Y" coin.

My answer can be summed up in this chart.

For a longer explanation of why nothing compares to Bitcoin, @jlppfeffer's paper from 2017 still holds true today:
https://t.co/Osd8sa5nyp

[River @River]

In 2017, countless cryptocurrencies were marketed as "better Bitcoin."

Here's how that worked out for them:

[River @River]

96% of all bitcoin has been mined.

Who will win the race to accumulate the most bitcoin?

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@stevemagness @zbitter is an exception to this rule

[Sam Baker @macromule]

The year is 2140.

Millions of humans work as dice rollers.

Why? Because a die thrown by a human hand is considered the purest source of entropy.

Entropy is the scarcest asset on Earth. No machine can make it.

The machines tried, of course.

For a century they pulled “randomness” from static, from noise, from the decay of atoms.

Then, one by one, those sources were broken.

Any pattern a machine could produce, another machine could learn to predict.

So the world went back to dice rolls.

It used to be easy. Ninety-nine rolls of a six-sided die gave you 256 bits, and 256 bits could secure anything.

Not anymore. The machines got faster. The keys got longer.

What once took ninety-nine rolls now takes ten thousand.

Today, rolling is a respectable career.

Rollers train for years. They learn to throw without thinking, because a thought is a pattern, and a pattern is a leak.

The best of them are celebrities. Their throws are auctioned before the die stops moving.

A single key from a grandmaster can secure a family’s savings for a lifetime.

Most rollers will never be famous. They clock in, roll ten thousand times, and go home.

A hard day's work produces one key.

That’s why the world needs millions of human dice rollers.

Their work secures every vault, every message, and every fortune on the planet.

[River @River]

Imagine if Americans could vote on inflation instead of the politicians promising to fix it.

[Alexander Leishman 🇺🇸 @Leishman]

If you keep your Bitcoin on an exchange there are two doors that need to be guarded to keep your funds safe: your account login and the exchange custody system.

Multi-factor authentication, device verification, withdrawal restrictions like ForceField, etc. are great features to prevent an attacker from compromising your account.

However, none of these protections help you if the custody system backing the exchange is compromised, which is what just happened at Binance.

Here is how River manages securing your coins internally:

Hot wallet:

Coins in a hot wallet are the most at risk. These coins are on systems connected to the public internet to process demand withdrawals for clients. The strategy is to keep enough coins in here to allow everyone to withdraw on-demand, but never too much that a hack could be financially devastating. River maintains a very low hot wallet balance, and on top of this we have strict internal manual approval policies if withdrawals exceed certain rate limits. Even if an attacker got through every single line of network defense and completely compromised our systems, they wouldn't be able to walk away with much BTC before being shut out.

In order to ensure we always have sufficient coins hot, we have a staging "warm" wallet that is not accessible to process demand withdrawals, but can send funds to top up the hot wallet with sufficient internal approvals.

However, the ultimate layer of defense is cold storage:

Cold storage is a custody system where the signing keys are held offline, such that a full compromise of all computer systems could still not lead to a theft of funds.

At River, we prove every month that we have more coins cold than we have in client BTC liabilities. You can verify this yourself at https://t.co/wzII0qEb6k. Our multi-sig cold storage system is designed for Bitcoin and Bitcoin alone. We are not exposed to any of the smart contract complexity that was exploited in the Binance hack. We will be sharing more in depth about our cold storage in the coming months.

Some exchanges outsource custody, which effectively removes their ability to make any direct claim to you about the integrity and security of their systems. Choose your exchanges carefully. Ask yourself: “are the people running my exchange the most qualified to build a highly secure custody system?”

[River @River]

In light of the recent security events on other exchanges, we want to reassure clients that River is unaffected and all bitcoin remains secure.

All client bitcoin is held in multisig cold storage, never lent out, and accounted for through our monthly Proof of Reserves. Our hot wallet maintains a minimal balance, has strict internal controls, and no individual at River has unilateral access.

Every client deserves to know how their bitcoin is protected. Safeguarding your savings and maintaining transparency are our top priorities.

If you have any questions about our security practices, our team is always here to help.

Do not hesitate to reach out.

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@LH @ONagel33303 Hey @LH, would love to interview you for a research piece from @River. Please send me a DM if interested!

[Sam Baker @macromule]

Jason is the Peter Schiff of tech

[@jason @Jason]

A brutal year for Bitcoin is just getting started.

Give me three minutes to explain why you should dump it now.

Outflows from ETFs are signal and will continue.

We will test the 57k low again in the next 12 months.

Why?

Because there are far too many dynamic places to put your money that are creating MUCH more value.

Why put your resources into a dead network that offers nothing beyond a store of value?

What's the point of place the BTC be if Bitcoin's Ponzi-scheme nature has gone away!?!

The viral nature of bitcoin was it's power... if you didn't own you were MOCKED!

Now? Completely reasonable, heck, SMARTER, to ignore bitcoin and place other bets!

No one is trying to convince people to buy Bitcoin anymore... the memes and NFTs are gone.

No one is saying $ BTC can change the world, because it won't — and BECAUSE AI HAS!

Just sell and shift from Bitcoin to Super Intelligence because one provides little to no value, and the other provides unlimited upside for humanity.

This should be obvious to everyone right now.

Bitcoin will never break its all-time high again.

[River @River]

Bitcoin is the only major asset class primarily held by individuals.

Bonds, stocks, and gold have existed for centuries. So naturally they are more institutionalized.

As bitcoin matures, we expect ownership to shift towards institutions. Its ownership distribution will look more similar to gold.

This is not necessarily a good or bad thing. It is simply the inevitable consequence of global adoption.

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@BTCYN Thank you for the kind words, Jeff!

[Sam Baker @macromule]

The separation of money and state.

[River @River]

Hey @grok, what's the solution for this?

[River @River]

How inflation works:

In 2023, you weighed 200 lbs.
In 2024, you gained 20 lbs (+10%)
In 2025, you gained 20 lbs (+9.1%)
In 2026, you gained 20 lbs (+8.3%)

Government: "You're healthy! Weight gain is down!"

[River @River]

Checking in on the fiat currency experiment.

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@MitchellAskew @VinnyPardi is that you?

[River @River]

~1.5 million bitcoin has been lost through self-custody, about the same as on exchanges.

How you store your bitcoin matters.

Your keys or not your keys, doing your due diligence is your responsibility.

[River @River]

1 million more bitcoin.

That's how much businesses are on track to buy within five years.

Our new report shows the biggest trends shaping business bitcoin adoption in 2026. https://t.co/vXvNHIPymW

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@BitcoinMagazine @watchbmtv @River @realseanhagan @GraceRemiTV Thanks for having me on!

[River @River]

There’s not enough bitcoin for everyone.

Here’s who is fighting over the supply.

[Sam Baker @macromule]

@River River clients are accumulating 0.055% of current miner rewards by mining with their fiat.