DS, U.E.

jokes n smokes

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

$QNT

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

$QNT MC ~17B
$INFQ MC ~3.8B

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

commodity business? and competing with China?
https://t.co/3ofWBScL83

[Negligible Capital @negligible_cap]

DeepSeek is becoming more popular among US enterprises as companies look for cheaper alternatives to Anthropic and OpenAI

“DeepSeek takes top spot on 'trending' list as companies look for alternatives to OpenAI and Anthropic, spending tracker's report says Chinese artificial intelligence start-up DeepSeek took the top spot on a major US business spending index in June, surging as more companies swap out expensive American options like OpenAI and Anthropic in favour of more affordable alternatives.”

Nothing to see here

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

worth considering imo

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

seems about right

[Brandon Carl @brandonjcarl]

Documenting the headwinds I now see for AI.

It won't seem like it, but I love AI and am long-term positive. But when "math doesn't math" I take note.

1. The core thesis for foundation model lab investment has been high upfront investment made worthwhile by significant long-term profits.

2. These are capital intensive businesses and the compute commitments are very high relative to revenue and require strong growth over long time periods. The "leverage" (commitments versus revenue) is extremely high.

3. The fundamentals are not as positive as they previously were:
• Input costs are higher (commodities, chips, power)
• Interest rates are higher
• Competition is more intense
• Scaling Laws are now problematic: exponential costs/power cannot continue

4. Forecasting compute spend is challenging and high risk due to (a) revenue uncertainty and (b) algorithm uncertainty

5. Revenue growth appears to be slowing. The technology is valuable, but ROI is proving to be more expensive and take longer than anticipated.

6. The future is likely "different models for different use cases" with the lower end of the market being highly competitive.

7. Core use cases such as agentic software engineering are likely to need approaches beyond next-token prediction. They are Σ₂ᴾ complexity problems requiring multi-objective optimization and likely a combination of Transformers and other methods.

8. Current forecasts in memory makers are built largely on quadratic attention. That will not persist: we are already seeing work from DeepSeek, Minimax and Nvidia that can cut RAM needs by 80% or more.

9. This means semiconductor valuations are substantially overinflated and will go through the traditional glut versus shortage cycle.

10. For foundation model providers: lower costs with competitive differentiation is good. However, lower costs with a lack of differentiation would mean lower revenues. This makes it harder to (a) service commitments and (b) pay back investors.

11. Leverage is substantially higher than in previous cycles, evidenced by leveraged ETFs, call option activity and margin loans. Korea is particularly susceptible.

12. 0DTE options create a profile that has stronger parallels to portfolio insurance and 1987 than any other point I can remember.

13. The combination of exponential increases in call activity coupled with the ties of semiconductors to structured products means there is a non-trivial systemic risk to the financial system.

14. Implied earnings growth rates are inconsistent with other periods in history.

15. Macroeconomically we cannot and should not fund exponential cost increases. History has shown us repeatedly that there are better ways (see Quick Sort and Simplex).

16. Significant supply is hitting the market via IPOs.

––

Taken together: costs and competition are increasing while revenue growth is likely slowing. Valuations are fragile and prone to technology disruptions that are already here. Systemic financial market risk is extremely high.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@MyQuant_um @compoundinpubli what was your multibagger?

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@CarsonTalkMoney @BondKingJanusH1 I think it’s over. No one cares. There are much better cryptocurrencies for actual use and $BTC hit the mainstream and is down 50% since. There are no greater fools left. Main thing is why invest in something with no real value when you can invest in something that grows value???

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@arjunswritings @USAmbCanada Fuck you asshole. Canada needs to align with Europe and get nukes. Current US Admin is completely corrupt and a disaster for the US and the world. Admin should focus on ending the war they started for Israel that fucked over everyone and most of all the US. Complete clown show.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@CarsonTalkMoney @BondKingJanusH1 Bitcoin is over (imo). If you want an actual SOV just buy gold.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

It took 250 years but democracy has now completely turned into idiocracy.

[Joe G @EastEndJoe]

I’d like to see our President stand on the moon and have this picture taken.
🇺🇸

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

ugh

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

Ever since I got the new Apple update (26.5) my desktop has been fucked (ie regularly freezes for a couple seconds)
(or maybe I just have way too many tabs open 😆)

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

added SPGI and added to INFQ

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

Finally @CIBC is adding some commission free trades.
I'm happy with Investor's Edge as a platform but at 6.95 per trade they can't compete with Wealthsimple.
Didn't really want to add a third broker but just moved some money over to Wealthsimple to try it out. Might move more.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

today added some NOK

This was the original idea:
10k COHR
10k LASR
10k INFQ
10k LPTH
10k NOK
10k META
10k IRDM (a bit high) or SPGI (good price)

but things already kinda running away from me

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@atrupar https://t.co/bK3s5hrTmS

[Mark Slapinski @mark_slapinski]

BREAKING: The recent interview with Trump was discovered to be pre-taped.

He has not been seen in public for over a WEEK.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@clashreport https://t.co/bK3s5hrTmS

[Mark Slapinski @mark_slapinski]

BREAKING: The recent interview with Trump was discovered to be pre-taped.

He has not been seen in public for over a WEEK.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

new way to pump GAAP earnings just dropped

[Roger @rdd147]

Shouldn’t Jensen be in prison for committing securities fraud manipulating the price of $MRVL to ensure $NVDA can take 2.5% control of Marvell and increase earnings reported by $8 billion on next report?

Very Enron

🧐

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@jkenney @CanadianArmy and don't try to gaslight us that it's not a genocide
https://t.co/onRkzhu5Ip

[BladeoftheSun @BladeoftheS]

Amos Goldberg, Professor of Genocide Studies at The Hebrew University in Jerusalem "Yes, it is genocide. It's so difficult and painful to admit it, but we can no longer avoid this conclusion. Jewish history will henceforth be stained"

Is there anyone more qualified and unbiased?

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@jkenney @CanadianArmy Be like Massie opposing genocide, not like Kenney proudly supporting it
https://t.co/LjIxf1dgdx

[Thomas Massie @RepThomasMassie]

Israel has used American-supplied munitions to kill tens of thousands of innocent civilians.

America is morally obligated to end support of Israel’s devastation of Gaza and its people. I’m cosponsoring the Block the Bombs Act to limit the transfer of offensive weapons to Israel.

[DS, U.E. @madcap_cap]

@RepThomasMassie ❤️