Stephen McGrath

21,000,000

[Patrick OShaughnessy @patrick_oshag]

Paul Tudor Jones says the US is more dependent on equity prices than ever, and explains what a 35% correction would trigger in the economy:

"We're 252% of stock market cap to GDP. In 1929 we were 65%. In 1987 we got to ~85-90%. In 2000, 170%.

If you think about the periodicity of significant bear markets. Since 1970, we get a mean reversion about every 10 years.

Let's say mean revert to the past 25 or 30-year PE. That would be a 30, 35% decline. Well, 35% on 250% of GDP is 80, 90% of GDP.

10% of our tax revenues are capital gains, they go to zero. So you can see the budget deficit blowing up. You can see the bond market getting smoked. You can see this kind of negative self-reinforcing effect.

In the stock market, we're over-equitized as a country. We have the highest individual equity weightings in the history of the country.

And then the real problem is if you look at private equity in 2007-2008, that was about 7% of institutional portfolios. Now it's about 16% of the institutional portfolios. We're so much more illiquid than we were in 2008.

The problem is that if you buy the S&P at this current valuation, the 10-year forward return is negative when you buy the S&P with a PE of 22. That's what history shows.

So yes, the S&P is spectacular long-term, if you have a hundred-year view. But that's because that's an average of a hundred years, including times when the S&P 500 PE was 6, 7 and 8, or one third of what it is right now.

Valuation matters a lot, and the stock market's really high and it's gonna be really hard to make money from here with any kind of long-term view."

[Eric Daugherty @EricLDaugh]

🚨 BREAKING: Many New Yorkers are livid after Ugandan Mayor Mamdani says he needs to RAID the RETIREE fund and raise property taxes just to help cover the budget shortfall

He'd also need to "raid our rainy day fund"

You REALLY asked for it, NYC! �

[@jason @Jason]

Private school in NYC is 70k
College is $90k

I asked @claudeai to make me a model of how much you would give to your kids over time if you put this into the markets, went to public school and skipped college.

How on earth does private school make sense vs this?

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

💯

[Vivek Sen @Vivek4real_]

BINANCE FOUNDER CZ JUST DESTROYED GOLD BUG PETER SCHIFF IN 30 SECONDS

THIS IS A MUST WATCH!!

[Rekt Fencer @rektfencer]

1.8 MILLION $BTC LEFT EXCHANGES OVERNIGHT

This is not normal

Someone knows something is coming

[Benny Johnson @bennyjohnson]

Minnesota’s Somali community has been caught funneling taxpayer dollars to the terrorist group Al-Shabaab overseas by falsely diagnosing children with autism through Medicaid.

Look at the insane spike in claims:
2018: $3 million
2023: $399 million

Within this same time period, autism centers skyrocketed from 41 to 328 with many of them being in Somali communities.

Your tax dollars are being stolen and shipped over to people who hate us and want us dead.

You should be furious.

This is a direct result of careless immigration policies. We must ramp up mass deportations and halt all legal immigration.

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

Chamath: Charlie Kirk was absolutely right about America’s youth

"One of the most powerful things that I think Charlie got absolutely and precisely right was the plight of young people."

"Meaning the malaise, and the anxiety, and what was at the root cause of it."

"At the root cause, in the way people think, and now in the way people act, is economic instability."

"Charlie does a really good job of very precisely putting it into a box what they're going through."

"The lack of home ownership, the overwhelming and just crushing debt, the failure of the school system, the inability to find a great job, the hookup culture that takes people away from having a committed relationship, getting married, having children."

"There's a totality of issues that are really cultural."

"I think that we need to sort of find a way to give folks a chance to believe in something."

"And if you don't, I think the algorithm will take you to a very bad place."

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

Charlie, this is your biggest rally yet. We will never let your voice be silenced. Your legacy will only grow greater and greater.

[America @america]

Elon Musk: “Charlie was murdered by the Dark for showing people the Light.”

[Project Constitution @ProjectConstitu]

🚨BREAKING: Shocking PROOF FBI Caught LYING About Charlie Kirk's Killer –Muzzle Flash Reveals TRUE Shooter Location in Charlie Kirk Murder

New Video evidence discovered that shows a muzzle flash from the stairwell to right of where Charlie was seated that day, definitively pinpoints the exact firing location o of the shooter.

After hours of video analysis w/ gun experts, ex-snipers & CIA assets, we've PROVEN the shooter DIDN'T fire from the Sparks Automotive roof like they claim.

Trajectory shows shot came from RIGHT SIDE, SLIGHTLY BEHIND—matching exit wound on left neck (NO entry on back per unreleased TP video Candace Owens saw). Massive blood splatter? EXIT wound vibes. Body fell LEFT from bullet momentum.

SMOKING GUN: Caught MUZZLE FLASH on vid! Shooter hid by outside stairwell btw Browning Admin & Campus Gateway Bldgs—perfect cover, quick escape door just 3ft away!

FBI LIES EXPOSED: Rifle story bogus—fired, disassembled, backpacked, then REASSEMBLED & towel-wrapped in woods while fleeing? BS! More red flags in my past posts/videos.

Charlie deserves JUSTICE—not another cover-up like JFK/MLK! SHARE THIS FAR & WIDE! Demand TRUTH from FBI! Links to truth-seekers in replies.

[Chief Nerd @TheChiefNerd]

Van Jones Gets Emotional After a Newly Discovered DM from Charlie Kirk

“After he was murdered, my team called and said he was trying to reach you … This guy is reaching out to his mortal enemy saying, we need to be gentlemen and sit down together … I've sat on it long enough.”

[The All-In Podcast @theallinpod]

David Friedberg: Charlie Kirk’s effectiveness made him a cultural threat to his opponents

“He was too smart, too open, too honest, too willing to engage in discourse, too willing to debate.”

“He was too effective in changing people's minds, and I think that's why he became such a cultural threat.”

“It wasn't his controversy, it was his effectiveness.”

“And it wasn't necessarily the things he said, because there are people out there who say far more controversial things than Charlie."

"It's that he sounded sensible and he changed people's minds through his discourse.”

“And as he changed people's minds, I think he became a real threat to the ideologies that he spoke up against.”

“One of the things that we've seen is the power of going direct. He went to college campuses, but he also recorded it and put it on the internet, and millions of people saw it.”

“And that new form of media, that new form of communication, where someone can actually have a town square, the internet, that they can stand out and speak their mind and be heard.”

“There's no longer these filters and these controlling powers of influence that decide what we get to know and not know and what our opinions need to be.”

“The media and the traditional kind of systems are being degraded.”

“I think it's important to continue that.”

“But since that time, I think it's been amazing to see the optimism, not just from one side, but from a lot of different people from different backgrounds standing up and saying discourse is so important and re-underwriting this American process.”

“So I'm very sad, but I'm very hopeful that people take this as a sign of how important this discourse is.”

[Nick Perkins @NickyPerkss]

I’m kinda addicted to watching AI Football Stadium videos

[PBD Podcast @PBDsPodcast]

Did not age well

[FearBuck @FearedBuck]

Someone used AI to create reimagined NFL stadiums based on their team names

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (9/17/2025):

1. Fed cuts rates by 25 bps in first rate cut of 2025

2. Median projection shows 50 bps in additional rate cuts for 2025

3. Governor Miran dissents in favor of 50 bps cut today

4. Fed says downside risks to employment have risen

5. 6 Fed officials see no more rate cuts in 2025

6. 9 Fed officials see 2 additional rate cuts in 2025

The Fed is shifting their focus to the labor market.

[Coinvo @Coinvo]

BULLISH:

🇺🇸 AVALANCHE FOUNDATION HAS RAISED $1 BILLION TO BUILD AVAX TREASURY FIRMS IN THE U.S.!

[Matt Wallace @MattWallace888]

Rumors are circulating that Charlie Kirk was taken out by his own security

[@jason @Jason]

I’m no conspiracy theorist, but I feel like we’re not being told the truth about these assassinations and assassination attempts.

… which makes me wonder… why?

/eom