ANTOh

Millennial Economist
Re = Rf + Beta × (Rm - Rf)
|| Amen||

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@Jane_FKyalo Hey DM for chemistry

[ANTOh @maich_G]

Short safaricom stock?

[Egline Samoei @Egline_Samoei]

You are hijacked, they transfer money on your M-Pesa, you go to Safaricom shop and request an Mpesa statement The contacts are redacted in excuse of data privacy laws. Make it make sense, your own account.
The company even tells you to use search engines to familiriaze yourself with Kenya data privacy laws 🥺

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@edgarwabwire_ I think it is time people talked of how @imbankke is allowing people to defraud people and businesses out here by reversing bank to mpesa transactions without consulting the other party

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@kenyanwalstreet Uongo @imbankke. I think it is time people talked of how @imbankke is allowing people to defraud people and businesses out here by reversing bank to mpesa transactions without consulting the other party

[Rufas Kamau ⚡ @RufasKe]

How's Japan involved in all this?

Well, Japan cut rates to 0% in 2010 and then to -0.1% in 2016. This ensured that the cost of money remained close to zero.

This led to Japanese and international investors borrowing from Japan at near zero rates and investing majorly in the US for higher returns from US bonds, stocks, and even cryptocurrencies.

Japan's monetary policy also involved massive JGB purchases that basically means printing a whole lot of Yen. This was meant to fight deflation.

So, the investors holding JPY-denominated loans also benefited from the JPY losing value to the USD as the BOJ increased the Yen supply.

In Jan 2010, USDJPY was trading at 90. The Yen continued losing to the dollar and hit 161.9 in July this year. All the Yen carry traders enjoyed this since their forex earnings lowered their obligations.

As of April 2024, Japan was the biggest holder of US bonds with an accumulated position of $1.15 trillion.

As the US hiked rates from <0.25% in March 2022 to <5.50% in August 2023 and kept the rates there to date, more investors borrowed from Japan and invested in the US. This built a massive collective carry trade.

What changed?

The Bank of Japan hiked rates in March from <-0.1% to <+0.1%. It the hiked to +0.25% on July 31st. This was done to tackle high inflation that was making Japanse imports expensive and terrorizing Japanese household budgets.

Within the same period, Japan removed the yield curve control (YCC) program that locked Japan's 10-yr bond yields at +/- 0.5%. This means that yields can go much higher. The 10-yr JGP increased from 0.65% at the start of the year to over 1% before dropping to the current 0.97%.

This led to a strengthening of the Yen from last month's low of 161.9 to the current 144.9. This means that the JPY has gained about 11.3% to the USD in about 1 month. Anyone holding JPY denominated debt and invested in the US just got their debt increased by 11.3%.

The returns they are getting on US stocks and bonds just got reduced since bond yields are tanking and equities are entering correction territory, or are already there.

The interest they are paying on JPY-denomiated debt is also up since the BOJ has been hiking interest rates.

So, what's the reaction so far?

Investors are dumping US bonds (at losses), US equities (mostly in profit, albeit the recent selloff), Bitcoin (in profit, albeit the selloff) to repay their JPY-denominated loans before the BOJ hikes rates further and the JPY strengthens further, and before JGBs become more attractive due to increasing yields.

What could possibly stop this train?

BOJ cutting rates again and re-implementing YCC with more quantitative easing (QE). Is it happening? No. Japan's inflation has remained above the 2% BOJ target since March 2022. It has led to increase in household prices.

Nothing can stop this train.

That's why I told @DavidNdii that getting a JPY bond this year was synonymous to monetary policy suicide on the Kenyan side.

Why is the market overreacting?

When there is an arbitrage opportunity, people get greedy. The JPY carry trade was levered over 10x which means there's even more risk in the derivatives market. Anyone who assumed the BOJ would hold rates below zero or close to zero forever without an appropriate hedge is basically fucked.

Did you see Nvidia gaining over $1 trillion in market cap in H1? The JPY carry trade was the backdrop fuelling this and the entire magnificient seven.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Wow
https://t.co/P26JfTjPPJ

[Gichuki Kahome @kahome_steve]

How much money do you lose over time due to not investing or investing in poor avenues?

KES 1M in 5yrs is reduced to 765K in 5 yrs by inflation

KES 1M in 10 yrs is reduced to 585K in 10 yrs by inflation

KES 1M in 20 yrs is reduced to 342K in 20 yrs by inflation

[👑👑Sir.Henry @cherryhenry34]

Visiting my bro in school today and I had to ensure the culture goes to the last line💉💉he will not believe!

[Eric @amerix]

ECONOMIC SMOKESCREEN:

Most Afrikans have been miseducated that tourism is an important part of economic growth.

It is NOT.

This kind of misinformation is peddled by the World Bank and IMF, which rank tourism as the second-best foreign earner after AGRICULTURE.

This is by design.

The tourism there is a smokescreen.

The actual thing there is "Mining" or "Exploitation of Resources."

Do you know that most of those so-called tourists only come to explore and exploit hidden minerals?

But we are fools who celebrate them at the airports with traditional dances, thinking that these tourists are here to build our economies.

The political class propagate this fallacy because they are errand boys who receive kickbacks from foreign mining companies.

By the way, the actual tourists would only come to do game hunting and not to photograph wild animals. That is why in South Afrika, this tourism madness is common.

The so-called tourists come to Afrika to:

- Explore our minerals

- Recruit girls and boys for sex slavery in Epstein Island and Hollywood.

Why do you think conservancies are owned by Europeans? Do you think it is because of those wild animals?

Think again.

They are mining our minerals and exporting them abroad.

It is only a fool who thinks that these foreigners can waste their money, take a flight to Kenya, and book a hotel just because of a giraffe.

They are doing fishy exploitation in Cahoot with the government of the day.

So, don't be surprised that when Kenyans started demanding the true position of mineral resources, the government saw it wise to keep locals out of these parks.

Why do we have British soldiers stationed in the Mount Kenya region that has the highest deposit of minerals? What are they doing there? Despite their bad history of human rights violations in that area, the government continues to protect them.

Why?

Because the more ignorant the people of Kwale, Kilifi, Taita, Samburu, Makueni, Laikipia, and other "poor counties," the more the tourists exploit these mineral deposits.

The so-called tourism has caused so much suffering to our people right from erosion of our values, drug peddling, sex trafficking, artifical banditry, and land displacement.

The true pillars of economic development in Afrika are:

• Agriculture

• Mining

• Manufacturing

• Forestry

• Transportation eg Ports

• Taxes and levies

Tourism is just an economic smokescreen to hoodwink the masses as foreigners loot our hidden minerals.

Wake up!

#DrainTheSwamp

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@NotinoG CSD

[Eric @amerix]

I don't know how much I will say this,

I respect my values.

— Discipline, Order and Commitment.

I have declined inducements and bribes from politicians and NGOs to push their agenda.

I have been approached to host spaces, promote ideologies and push hashtags, but as long as they don't align with my values, I decline.

Government bloggers have requested me to push hashtags and throw cold water on protests, but I declined.

I have been approached by media houses and organizations for interviews, but I have declined.

Probably they now see me as a weird, uncooperative and primitive person who doesn't want to make money from the influence I have on X.

But, I respect my followers and love my motherland and therefore I cannot renege on the loyalty pledge for thirty pieces of silver.

I'd rather remain alone than auction my soul at the altar of hypocrisy.

I revere discipline, hard work and honesty.

Integrity remains the software of my character.

#BetterTogether

[Eric @amerix]

1st WIN: Finance Bill dropped ✔️

2nd WIN: Cabinet dissolved ✔️

Remaining tasks:

- Reconstitute IEBC

- Recall MPs

- Deport US ambassador

Remain vigilant, firm, and stoic.

#DrainTheSwamp

[Fafa Mukuru @osoroKE]

Hii nayo ndio itabamba!

[Just Ivy Africa @JustIvyAfrica]

The Office of the Auditor General is almost the only thing working in Kenya. Their work, though commendable, their findings are really quite sad.

They published their report on the FY 21/22, 22/23. Here is a THREAD of the 8 worst corruption findings of the reports:

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@KhalifKairo @amerix

[Schröndinger’s Tweet @RutoMustGoExpat]

Bensuda is shaking. Bensuda is speaking the truth. Bensuda shall be heard

[Auma Obama @AumaObama]

A friend forwarded me this. I cried …

*Mama I made it!*
I occupied Parliament
Remember the #occupyParliament demonstrations?
But tell papa I’m sorry
I won’t come home tonight
Not because I’m spending at a friends’. No!

2/…

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@MckennaMK @MckennaMK

[ANTOh @maich_G]

@MckennaMK https://t.co/EypjWhW4Iv

[Conrad Kulo @ConradKulo]

After William Ruto told the nation that KICC made a paltry Kshs 29M last year NTV went on a fact-finding mission and got that KICC made a whopping Kshs 956M last year.

This year alone, from January to May, KICC made over 500M in profits.

About KPC, Ruto said it only makes 200 or 300 million a year and NTV found out that KPC had made 7.5 Bn in 2023 and 6.2 Bn in 2022 which translates to a 21% profit.

Ruto also claimed to be losing 3 million every time Post Bank is opened. And that we have lost 1 Bn every year Post Bank has been in business.
NTV found this to be not accurate.

A liar per excellence.