PRIVATE (James Lavish)

reformed hedge-fund manager | cfa | ex-@yale hockey / co-founder of Bitcoin Opportunity Fund + @Strive Director | author of 💡The Informationist

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

👇

[James Lavish @jameslavish]

Most people have never heard of the Cantillon Effect.
But once you understand it, you’ll see the world of investing differently.

What is it?

In the early 1700s, Richard Cantillon noticed a simple pattern:
When new money enters an economy, it doesn’t reach everyone at once.
And whoever gets it first benefits the most.

Here’s how it works today:

New liquidity enters through the Fed and through bank lending.
Both follow a similar pattern:

→ Markets and large balance sheets get first access
→ Large corporations and well-connected borrowers tap cheap credit next, they invest and expand at today’s prices
→ Asset prices tend to rise as new liquidity chases finite assets
→ Consumer prices often follow
→ Wages rise last, usually after purchasing power has already declined

Fed data shows how lopsided the playing field is:
- The top 10% hold nearly 90% of equities.
- The bottom 50% holds about 1%.

It’s a simple but powerful monetary transmission.

Understanding this won’t change the system.
But it might change how you think about where to store your savings.

For those of you who don't know, I write all about topics like this every week in The Informationist. Last week, we dove deep on this one.

Link in bio if you want to read the full explanation.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Welcome (back) to The Thunderdome, my friend.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Likewise for @ZeroHedge_.Successful trading is all about discipline, and Wick understands this as well as or better than anyone l've met in the hedge fund world. If you are new to the game or just want to get better, give him a follow. You won't regret it.

[Wick @ZeroHedge_]

Had a great conversation with @jameslavish today.

What a great guy. Give him a follow if you’re looking for a go to guy for macro break downs.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good evening.

Tomorrow’s Informationist is all about this situation. It’s a long one, and trust me, you don’t want to miss it.

Have a great night.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

If this were Bitcoin, there d be no pomp. No verbal confirmations. No physical audits. No chemical tests. Anyone, anywhere, could verify it on-chain in seconds. One million, one billion, one trillion. All of it, with a click.

[Bull Theory @BullTheoryio]

BREAKING: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says all gold at Fort Knox is present and accounted for, with U.S. gold reserves now worth over $1 TRILLION.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good afternoon.

And welcome back to the timeline. I missed you all.

Have a great night.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good evening.

The US government has spent $827 billion just on interest on its debt so far in 2026, the second largest spending item and on pace to be over $1.1 trillion for the year.

Have a great night.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Some important things to unpack here, which we are doing in this Sunday's Informationist. Link in bio if you want to check it out.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Congratulations Team USA! Way to work through the adversity and prevail! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

AI Maxers: The Debasement Trade is dead.

The Fed:

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Of all the things that won't happen, this is at the top of the list. Why? Because any government that issues debt in its own fiat currency will never default on that debt. They will simply print more fiat and buy the debt themselves. Inflation is not unavoidable.

[Peter Schiff @PeterSchiff]

Jeff Gundlach warned that the U.S. Govt. may lower coupons and extend maturities on its debt to avoid default or inflation. I've warned about this for over a decade. So you go to sleep owning a 2-year T-note with a 4% coupon and wake up owning a 30-year T-bond with a 1% coupon.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Warsh: “We are going to reduce the Fed’s balance sheet.”

My Bulldog:

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

In a world without "official guidance" from the Federal Reserve, you may want to keep an eye on this nifty little cheat sheet of "official non-official" Fed policy.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

It seems that the more certain people desperately root for Elon Musk to fail, the more he wildly succeeds.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good morning.

Some friendly advice for the perma Bit-doomers: Stop declaring Bitcoin "dead". It is not dead. It is not dying. It is an asset experiencing normal bouts of high volatility during its adoption and maturation phase.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Casual night in Las Vegas. Go Knights!

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Pretty sure we just had an earthquake in Las Vegas.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good morning.

If you are selling Bitcoin this morning because Strategy sold .004% (1/26,367th) of their holdings, then you do not understand tax harvesting and/or simple corporate finance.

Have a great day.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Good morning.

As the hot ball of money continues to chase anything and everything tech and ai related, Bitcoin continues to fall out of favor. And in the not too distant future, we will look back at any price near or below $70K as an absolute gift.

Have a great day.

[PRIVATE (James Lavish) @mainjameslavish]

Huge Congrats to my old friend @bofrench and God Bless Texas.

[Bo French @bofrench]

I am deeply grateful for the support of TX Republicans across our state. Our campaign focused on defending oil and gas, and putting America First—and that’s exactly what I will continue fighting for as we turn our attention to radical Democrat Jon Rosenthal.