This is now going to be a popular opinion but I did give you the heads up👌Even I didn't expect it to move so much in a day though... was anticipating a few days
Just one of those few times in the market when everyone is over leveraged on calls and then get blind sided
There are three primary ways to make money with options:
Direction (Delta)
Time (Theta)
Volatility (Vega)
Let's break each one down for a little Saturday 🧵
1/11
I’ve been waiting last few months for signs that 3.5 year cycle has topped. We’ve been buyers of dips as models were bullish. It has changed in Feb when I posted that I went mostly cash and now all models I track are now on a weekly sell signal / bear regime.
-The last time we had a similar set up was Dec 2021 and we went defensive before the bear market which positioned us well to be buyers of stocks at bargain prices later in 2022. Now current 3.5Y cycle is peaking/rolling over - time to pay attention.
-I don’t like playing Monday morning quarterback so I try to give you my actionable primary roadmap a few months out and adjust along the way based on cycles, models, technicals etc. Saying something was obvious after the fact doesn’t help anyone.
-Below is my experimental $SPX composite leading indicator which I’ve been working on for several years combining various cross-asset signals. Not meant to perfectly time every micro move but can be used as a confluence for larger trend changes
-In Dec ‘25 I saw upside headfake move (UTAD in Wyckoff terms) in Q1 2026 and then rollover; now with more data coming in it’s suggesting a bigger decline in Mar-Apr - in line cycles/ models / TA
- $SPX is still only -3.4% below ATH so real correction hasn’t even started. When talking heads on CNBC start panicking it will be too late. Not trying to fear monger, just calling it what models are showing. Capital preservation is key.
-I take time out of my weekend to post this to open people’s eyes to a potential significant downside in the market and consider contingency plans. If you find it helpful and want to get more updates - please retweet.
The gate agent was unable to change my flight because I had booked through Delta Vacations. I understand they are two different companies, but why block Delta from making changes? Would have been nice to catch the earlier flight.
@DeltaVacations@DeltaVacAgents@Delta arrived early enough to the airport to catch the earlier flight back to ATL. Gate agent was amazing and willing to get us on the flight even though they had already started boarding. The problem? I booked with Delta vacations.
@vikhyatk@vxunderground AWS Professional Services - Personal yearly goals rewarded duplicating solutions to hit goals instead of updating existing solutions.
Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) daily chart cycle composite suggest SOX may take a breather soon, it is also overbought.
If you like and retweet this post, I'll DM to you the weekly (long-term) cycle composite. Must follow.
Weekend indy update❗️ I've revamped my old PCR Triggers - https://t.co/yjmckv4xIk
Release Notes covers the biggest changes but ultimately I removed the noisy plotted lines and just default to plotted triggers to make it easier to view (in addition to few new triggers)
$SPY $SPX $QQQ
@UPS What is the point of purchasing next day shipping? Package received by UPS 1/15 Tulsa Oklahoma
Packaged arrived at Lenexa ks facility 1/16 3:55am
Scheduled delivery 1/16 to a UPS store.
Status update delivery 1/21. I don't think the live fish are going to make it a week.
@google@GooglePay why is my wallet on my pixel phone different from https://t.co/ZeqD6RYx1q? My passes show up and my existing credit cards show up, but my newly added credit card (1-2hrs ago) is not showing on the website but is in the app/phone.
@Delta@DeltaVacations Y not allow companion cert to be used on Delta Vac packages? Understand flight is discounted while using the package and less value as it would be if booked flight individually. Booking separately is the same price or more as booking together w/o cert.
At AHF, we aim to offer products outperforming the speculative Furus and the market without resorting to F.U.D. We rely on decades of data rather than just the past 24 months to make a short-sighted point.
@Allstate had hail damage to my house. You are only replacing sections of the front of my house. Looking at the front of the house, the left 3/4s of the house is going to be replaced with the similar color. Stops where our front porch starts which will be the original color.