Manav Aggarwal

Investor and Trader
Technical+Trend Analyst
CFA charterholder
Climate change sceptic - Believer in Natural Cycles
LiverpoolFC

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

What a devastating indictment and frankly not surprising to realists though agenda driven axe grinders will find an agenda anyway

[Thorkill @Thorkill65]

"Jakość pocisków kalibru 155 mm produkowanych przez niektóre kraje azjatyckie jest fatalna". Najciekawsze fragmenty wywiadu z dowódca 7 Brygady Artylerii „Hrehit”.

Niedawno na łamach portalu Oboronka Ukraińskiej Prawdy ukazał się wywiad z Witalijem Kornijenko, dowódcą 7 Brygady Artylerii „Hrehit” 2 Korpusu GN "Chartia". Poniżej najciekawsze fragmenty:

O zmianach w taktyce użycia artylerii w wojnie rus-ukr.

"Na początku zarówno my, jak i Rosjanie mogliśmy trzymać na pozycjach po dwie, trzy armaty. Po stronie wroga trwało to jeszcze w 2023 roku. Potem zaczęło się to zmieniać, bo wystawiasz sześć armat – a godzinę później zostaje z nich wspomnienie. Nikt już nie wychodzi na szczere pole. Dziś sprzęt po prostu nie dojechałby nawet na pozycję.

Wyjazd załogi artyleryjskiej jest przygotowywany z wyprzedzeniem. Najpierw załogi dronów przeciwlotniczych „czyszczą” niebo z wrogiego rozpoznania na miejscu. Sama pozycja to kaponiera całkowicie wkopana w ziemię, z dobrze zamaskowanymi wejściami.
(...)
Jeśli wystrzelimy z armaty sto pocisków dziennie, jest mało prawdopodobne, że przetrwa ona do wieczora. Ponieważ niebo jest pełne dronów, każdy strzał zdradza pozycję – zostanie wykryta i zaczną ją rozbijać wszelkimi możliwymi środkami.

Teraz typowe zadanie to seria do 10 strzałów. Najpierw 3–5 pocisków na wstrzelanie się, a potem ogień w cel. Co najmniej pięć pocisków, z których każdy kosztuje minimum 2000 dolarów. To daje pojęcie o kosztach."

O sposobie wykorzystywania dział samobieżnych i holowanych.

"Działa samobieżne są używane „na wezwanie” i nie zawsze będą stosowane przeciwko piechocie czy jakiemuś budynkowi. Działa holowane są już wkopane i czekają na rozkaz, mogą działać szybko.

Działa samobieżne również pracują teraz z kaponier, ale holowane nadają się do tego lepiej – są po prostu mniejsze. Do tego działa holowane są znacznie wytrzymalsze. Mogą zostać uszkodzone, ale trudno je zniszczyć – to ich zaleta."

O rodzajach amunicji 155 mm.

"Amunicja 155 mm M107 nazywana jest „krótką”. Jest masowa i tania, produkują ją wszyscy nasi sojusznicy, a nawet nasz kraj. Mamy ich wystarczająco dużo, by prowadzić wojnę. Jest celna, ale jej zasięg wynosi 14–18 km w zależności od prochu.

Jeśli chodzi o te dalekiego zasięgu, to M795 i jego zagraniczne odpowiedniki. Jest dłuższy, waży więcej i jest znacznie droższy. Przy dobrym prochu poleci na 30 km, a z gazogeneratorem dennym jeszcze dalej. Taka amunicja i prochy są dość deficytowe.

Uważam, że rezygnacja z M107 nie jest do końca dobrym pomysłem. Pociski dalekiego zasięgu szybciej zużywają lufę, dekonspirują pozycję - przy ładunku dalekiego zasięgu z lufy wylatuje taki słup ognia… Wieczorem lub wczesnym rankiem błysk widać z odległości kilometrów."

O problemach z pociskami 155 mm produkcji azjatyckiej.

"Mamy szeroki wachlarz pocisków z różnych krajów i te z państw zachodnich są w normie. Jednak ich odpowiedniki produkowane przez niektóre kraje azjatyckie [chodzi zapewne o amunicję artyleryjską z Pakistanu produkowaną przez Pakistan Ordnance Factories oraz Indii wyprodukowaną przez nieistniejące już Ordnance Factory Board - dopisek mój]... ich jakość jest szczerze mówiąc fatalna.

"Na papierze masa pocisku jest określona jako 46 kilogramów, a my ważymy go na miejscu i ma 46,9 albo 45.4 kg. A te umowne pół kilograma ma ogromny wpływ na to, dokąd on poleci.

Nie wierzymy już w standardowe tabele dla pocisków i tworzymy własne dla każdego producenta, ważymy każdą partię, sortujemy je według masy, aby różnica między „skupieniami” była mała i leciało to mniej więcej w jedno miejsce. Nie mogę pozwolić sobie na błędy, żeby pocisk poleciał 2 km w bok, gdzie siedzą nasi chłopcy z piechoty.

Dodam, że nasi artylerzyści na ogół boją się pocisków z jednego kraju [Chodzi o Indie albo Pakistan - dopisek mój] . Bywały przypadki, że urywały hamulec wylotowy, a nawet rozrywały lufę. A kiedy rozrywa lufę, jest bardzo źle."

Źródło: https://t.co/UiIBC1vxGp

Poniżej: Skutki użycia w haubicy holowanej M777 należącej do ZSU, wadliwych pocisków kalibru 155 mm z niewłaściwie wykonanymi pierścieniami wiodącymi. Amunicja pochodzi prawdopodobnie z Indii (produkcja Ordinance Factory Board).

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Always amazes me that companies with gazillions in market-cap are making life-changing decisions basis what a 27 year old with a fancy degree from some fancy college is "advising" - 99% of these jokers dont even know yet what they dont know

And sadly some countries doing it 2

[Trung Phan @TrungTPhan]

Nike's market cap hit a peak of $280B in November 2021. It's now down to $57B (a $223B drop) and will be delisted from S&P 100.

Former Nike branding exec Massimo Giunco wrote a viral post in 2024 laying it all out. He blamed CEO John Donahoe (2020-2024) for going all in on direct-to-consumer (DTC)...with a cameo from McKinsey:

▫️ELIMINATE CATEGORIES: McKinsey advised Nike to get rid of categories (running, basketball, soccer) and re-classify everything into “Women”, “Men” and “Kids”.

The logic was that Nike was duplicating resources and a pivot to DTC would provide enough customer data to inform product decisions instead of relying on the category experts (eg. a basketball vet that spent 20+ years at Nike). A lot of these experts were fired and Nike lost their insights.

This was a clear L because Nike quietly brought back categories at end 2023.

▫️END WHOLESALE LEADERSHIP: Nike ended hundreds of relationships with wholesales partners and prioritized Nike's website over retail.

The change looked genius during COVID but as customers returned to brick ‘n mortar, Nike’s product were nowhere to be found. It had burnt bridges with partners, who were happy to give shelf space to upstarts (this wasn’t covered but I think On and Hoka took advantage of this for running)

There was also a lack of feedback from retailers, which led to inventory issues (the “data-driven” insights from online sales proved to not be a panacea).

▫️PRIORITIZE DIGITAL MARKETING: Nike changed its marketing budget to focus on driving users to Nike digital properties and membership platforms.

For decades, Nike spent 10% of sales on brand advertising to create an aspirational halo. The prioritization of programmatic ad spend meant Nike went from “create demand” (new customers) to “serve and retain demand” (re-targeting existing ones).

The result was a slowdown in sales.

“Because of that,” writes Massimo Giunco (who spent 21 years at the company), “Nike invested a material amount of dollars (billions) into something that was less effective but easier to be measured vs something that was more effective but less easy to be measured. In conclusion: an impressive waste of money.”

The quality of advertising was also...not great.

***

The focus on DTC is not surprising. Donahue was formerly CEO of B2B SAAS firm ServiceNow.

Nike’s DTC business peaked at 44% of sales in 2024 (vs. under 30% before the strategy change).

The digital focus seems to have commoditized the product, impacted Nike’s brand perception and created an opening for competitors.

***

Original post: https://t.co/EAROAHEZRM

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Brilliantly Put

All countries where bureaucracy is more important than the productive are heading down the gutter, no matter what stats "say" under torture and how much lipstick is put on the pig

Immutable law of nature as Hayek Friedman AynRand have all eloquently shown

[Commentary - Sowell Economics @sowelleconomics]

Uganda expelled the Gujaratis in the 1970s.

They were “too wealthy” and controlled too much of the economy. They left with almost nothing.

A few years later they were prosperous in England.

Uganda’s economy collapsed.

You can seize shops and inventory. You cannot seize the knowledge that built them.

Human capital walks out the door. The buildings stay empty.

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

The Big Bang is a religion which one cannot question even when facts after facts contradict "it" so "it" has seen numerous fudges and adjustments and still "it" cannot explain what the eyes can see

[Anthropic Feed 🔭 @anthropicfeed]

Yüzyıllık modern astrofizik kitaplarını çöpe atmanın eşiğindeyiz: James Webb Teleskobu, evrenin doğumuna dair bildiğimiz tüm denklemleri tek bir derin uzay verisiyle paramparça etti:

Standart Kozmolojik Model'e (Lambda-CDM) göre, Büyük Patlama'dan (Big Bang) sadece birkaç yüz milyon yıl sonra evrenin henüz ilkel gaz bulutlarından ve embriyonik yıldız kümelerinden ibaret olması gerekiyordu. Ancak JWST'nin yakaladığı "imkansız erken galaksiler", o çağda var olması matematiksel olarak imkansız olan trilyonlarca Güneş kütlesindeki devasa yapıları ve olgun süper kütleli kara delikleri ortaya çıkardı. Bu durum evrenin ya sanılandan çok daha yaşlı olduğunu ya da kütleçekimi, karanlık madde ve uzay-zamanın genişlemesini yöneten henüz adını bile koyamadığımız "yeni ve bilinmeyen bir fiziğin" devrede olduğunu gösteriyor.

Evrenin sınırlarını çözdüğümüzü ve tüm kuralları yazdığımızı sandığımız kibir, derin uzaydan gelen her yeni fotonla yerle bir oluyor. Belki de Big Bang mutlak bir başlangıç değil, sonsuz bir döngünün sadece küçük bir nefes alışıdır. İnsanlık olarak teleskoplarımızı karanlığa çevirdiğimizde, kendi ezberlerimizin ötesinde çalışan akılalmaz bir kozmik zekayla ve henüz keşfedilmemiş doğa yasalarıyla yüzleşiyoruz.

Bizler evrenin tüm sırlarını çözmüş bilge bir uygarlık mıyız, yoksa varoluşun gerçek kaynak kodunu yeni yeni hecelemeye başlayan acemi gözlemciler mi?

Kozmos sandığımız kadar uslu ve formüllere sığan bir yer değil; bilinen tüm fiziği baştan yazdıracak devasa bir paradigmanın tam eşiğinde duruyoruz.

[Flasheur ⚡️ @FlasheurInvest]

Un truc assez particulier arrive quand on investit depuis plusieurs années : on finit par avoir deux rapports complètement différents à l’argent.

Dans la vie quotidienne, 200 € restent 200 €. On compare les prix, on hésite sur un achat, on cherche parfois à économiser 20 ou 30 €.

Puis on ouvre son portefeuille et on voit tranquillement :

+1 840 € aujourd’hui.

-2 300 € hier.

+7 500 € sur le mois.

Et parfois, on referme simplement l’application avant d’aller comparer deux billets d’avion pour économiser 40 €.

Le plus étrange, c’est que ce décalage devient progressivement normal.

L’argent du portefeuille finit presque par avoir sa propre unité de mesure, complètement différente de celle qu’on utilise dans la vraie vie.

Je suis persuadé que beaucoup d’investisseurs savent exactement de quoi je parle.

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Can't believe just 3 years ago we used to be the smartest guys in the room and a team who would make anyone in Europe quake in their boots

Moneyball pretend fucks have screwed #LFC so bad even something as funny as this hurts more than regales

[Currys @currys]

🚨EXCL: Liverpool pursuing deal to sign Phil from Brighton Currys. No agreement yet for the 34 year old Shift Manager but talks ongoing. #LFC confident on reaching personal terms but #Currys do not want to sell without a replacement @TheAthleticFC

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

I think people who post inspirational messages daily / regularly on WhatsApp groups LinkedIn and so on are really talking to themselves while they are supposedly pontificating to whoever pays attention to such garbage (in almost all cases)

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Pretty amazing that the Chinese bond market is rallying while all other bond markets are getting obliterated

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

*CHINA 10-YEAR BOND FUTURES CLIMB TO A RECORD HIGH

[Robin Brooks @robin_j_brooks]

Long-term government bond yields are pushing up to new highs everywhere. What sticks out like a sore thumb is Japan, where the break in the long end of the yield curve is extreme. But many other places - the US, the UK and France - don't look great either.
https://t.co/rbMGKggaj1

[Tracy Shuchart (𝒞𝒽𝒾 ) @chigrl]

US 30 year yields just hit 5.31%, a level not seen since 2004. For equities, the bond market doesn't matter, until it does.
The long end doesn't believe Warsh will hold the line on inflation and Bessent can't hide behind bills forever.

(chart: Bloomberg)

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Could not have been said better

Come on @LFC

[Against All Odds Research @JasonP138]

It's coming. $EWA

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

That too amongst a general commodity boom !

[zerohedge @zerohedge]

The Diamond Crash Accelerates https://t.co/AdB3FyLMR0

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

A generation of inflationists probably gave up if not went bankrupt ever since the "easy money" policies of BOJ and other central banks started in 1990s when I started out - now the chickens are coming home to roost most likely and the # of inflationists is probably ATL

[Nic @puckrin]

Absolutely unprecedented.

Japanese 2yr Bond yields hit their highest level in 30 years.

The market is making the rate decision for the BoJ.

The interest of the most indebted country on earth is about to get more expensive.

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

If the cycles are right, the fireworks are probably still ahead though one would expect some sort of a bounce here before the inevitable breakdown

[Barchart @Barchart]

$TLT falls to lowest closing price in more than 22 years 📉 📉

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Wow what a quote

Could describe so many "developing" countries

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

Today could be the day Singapore and Hongkong start their journey to heights few can imagine at the moment over the next few years

Australian stock market looks similarly poised

Bond market different story !

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Rest in Peace, Victor Niederhoffer. We had our tough moments but I learned a lot from you.

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

😄

[Tren Griffin @trengriffin]

Charlie Munger:

"Victor Niederhoffer was the son of a police lieutenant, and he needed to get A’s at Harvard. But he didn’t want to do any serious work at Harvard, because what he really liked doing was, one, playing world-class checkers; two, gambling in high-stakes card games, at which he was very good, all hours of the day and night; three, being the squash champion of the United States, which he was for years; and, four, being about as good a tennis player as a part-time tennis player could be.

This did not leave much time for getting A’s at Harvard so he went into the Economics Department. You’d think he would have chosen French poetry. But remember, this was a guy who could play championship checkers. He thought he was up to outsmarting the Harvard Economics Department. And he was. He noticed that the graduate students did most of the boring work that would otherwise go to the professors, and he noticed that because it was so hard to get to be a graduate student at Harvard, they were all very brilliant and organized and hard working, as well as much needed by grateful professors.
And therefore, by custom, and as would be predicted from the psychological force called reciprocity tendency, in a really advanced graduate course, the professors always gave an A. So Victor Niederhoffer signed up for nothing but the most advanced graduate courses in the Harvard Economics Department, and of course, he got A, after A, after A, after A, and was hardly ever near a class. And for a while, some people at Harvard may have thought it had a new prodigy on its hands. That’s a ridiculous story, but the scheme will work still. And Niederhoffer is famous: they call his style “Niederhoffering the curriculum.”
https://t.co/wzq8MgOEHL

[Manav Aggarwal @Manavaggar]

An inspiration to anyone wanting to be a full-time speculator / investor

Brutally honest about his blow-up's and failures

Diary of a Speculator is a must read in my view for anyone wanting to make a career in markets

[Jeffrey A. Hirsch @AlmanacTrader]

Victor Niederhoffer passed away yesterday at the age of 82.
"When an old man dies, a library burns down." — Old African Proverb
The venerable, quintessential speculator has made his final trade. A truly remarkable man. An inspiration to the Almanac from the beginning.
https://t.co/IL0H4zzck3