We are finally beginning to see some real fear hit the markets with $VIX up to 34.
However, the $VIX still stands 32% below 45.
No bear market has bottomed without the $VIX at 45+.
We maintain our view that at least 1 limit down day is needed for a bottom.
Fear forms bottoms.
Bear "markets" don't bottom with 30 $VIX. Especially in a nasty Grizzly. Need minimum of 50 and likely over 80. Current scenario may be most dangerous in U.S. history, but retail acts like they're in an Enya video. Need Minsky limit down. This isn't what capitulation looks like.
A lot of companies have yet to confirm, but here's what we are looking at so far over the coming month.
https://t.co/lObOE0dgsr
$NFLX $CMG $NKE $MU $CMCSA $DPZ $UNH $TECK $UNP $VZ $T $DOW $USB $BMY $KIM $JPM $JNJ $F $WFC $CAT $SYF $MTB $TFC $CMA $ZION $FITB $CCL $C $MS $BKR
From July: The Fed Is Quietly Paying $250 Million To A Handful Of Happy Banks Every Single Day
https://t.co/zSjZvMBS1v
The more the Fed hikes, the more free money it gives to banks
When the Fed hikes to 3.25% from 2.50%, it will be paying banks $460MM in daily interest on IOER/Reverse Repo.
When the Fed hikes to 4.25% by year end, it will be paying $600 million in daily interest to BANKS.
Think that won't be a political issue? Think again
Business students, listen up.
This is what you do when you're on the cusp of a major recession and know you'll be bailed out by the government (again).
Without accountability, "from an incentive perspective there's no reason to really care whether or not you're doing a good job. So if we have high inflation, if we have to induce a recession to get inflation under control, that really doesn't affect anyone at the Fed." - Wang
Your occasional reminder that Jay Powell (Fed chair) and Gary Gensler (SEC head) are centimillionaires, and Janet Yellen (Treasury) is a decamillionaire.
Wheeee!
It's not their wealth that's the point - it's the policies they inflict on people who don't have their wealth.
If they're wrong on inflation, they'll still be fabulously wealthy, but the 90% of Americans making under $100k won't be.