Marcelo Brito

Diretor Administrativo e Financeiro da KPS Agropecuária, com a missão de “Produzir alimentos, carnes e fibras para o mundo”.

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Dec Corn 📝

📉 The May trendline. Drawn off the May highs, it's guided this entire breakdown. Price is testing it RIGHT NOW at 460. I've seen this movie before the first tag usually gets sold, the break is where the trade lives.

🟣🔵 9 & 20 EMAs reclaimed. Both held as support 7/9, being retested 7/10. When the fast EMAs flip from resistance to support after a two-month downtrend, the character of the tape is changing. But I need confirmation, not hope.

⬆️ UPSIDE decision area: 466-475
🔸 0.5 retrace → 466'0
🔸 0.618 retrace → 475'4
🔸 Old POC shelf → 470'2
That's a wall of prior acceptance. Chew through it and the June air pocket above turns into a runway.

⬇️ DOWNSIDE decision area: 446-441
🔸 0.382 → 450'4
🔸 0.5 → 445'6
🔸 0.618 → 441'0
Lose the EMAs and this is where the pullback gets judged. Hold 441 = higher low, bull structure intact. Lose 441 = projection opens lower.

💨 The air pocket cuts both ways. Thin volume from the June collapse means fast travel, in whichever direction wins the trendline fight. Low-volume zones don't care about your bias.

🎯 My net read: NEUTRAL-TO-BULLISH, but I let the chart confirm. Close through the May TL and > 466 = projected move into 475 and the air pocket beyond. Rejection here and a break of 446-441 = projection < 441 and the bounce was corrective. Old support at the highs becoming resistance is the question the market answers this week.

Structure defines the trade. Patience defines the trader.

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

Updated Acres 🚜

Corn 🌽
Down 3.5 million from last year’s record 98.8. The current 95.3 would still be the 4th largest ever (Behind 2025, 2013, 2012)

Soybeans 🌱
Up over 4 million from last year’s 6-year low. The current 85.4 would still be the 5th lowest in the last decade

Wheat 🌾
Today’s 42.7 million would firmly be the lowest of all-time by a sizable margin

***
Try our daily grain marketing updates & signals for free
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[Oliver - Blue Line Futures @OliverSloup]

Soybean CoT Summary: Indecisive af
🌱🌱🌱

[Market Minute LLC @MarketMinuteLLC]

We’re a week away from the June 30th USDA report

It’s often viewed as one of the biggest of the entire year

But just how big of a market mover is it..?

Day of the report changes:

Dec Corn 🌽

🔴 2025: -1.50
🔴 2024: -13
🔴 2023: -33.75
🔴 2022: -34
🟢 2021: +40
🟢 2020: +15.75
🔴 2019: -19.50
🟢 2018: +5.25
🟢 2017: +12
🔴 2016: -11.75
🟢 2015: +29.25
🔴 2014: -22
🔴 2013: -27.50
🟢 2012: +2.50
🔴 2011: -30
🟢 2010: +29.50
🔴 2009: -30
🔴 2008: -30
🔴 2007: -7.50
🟢 2006: +5.75

Average Move: +/- 20 cents

In the last decade corn has only moved less than a dime twice. With several limit type moves over the years

***
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Try our updates & signals free
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[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

Soybean CFR China Forward Curve Jul-Dec ($/bu) 🇺🇸🆚🇧🇷

🟢 US Gulf: 15.38 - 15.66, basically flat to firm across M1–M6 (Month 1 to 6)

🟠 Brazil: 13.12 - 13.89, climbing steadily and closing in

🔵 Spread (US less Brazil): 2.26, 2.08, 2.05, 1.81, 1.75, 1.82

📉 The story is COMPRESSION: US premium narrows 51¢ from Jul to the Nov trough before a modest Dec tick higher.

🥡 Takeaway: Brazil is the clear value origin into China the whole way out, but Brazilian values are firming faster than the US. US needs that premium to keep tightening to win business, the curve says the door is opening into late year. 🚪

🐂 Brazil / 🐻 US Gulf competitiveness near-term.

[FarmPolicy @FarmPolicy]

1/ Winter #wheat condition in the United States is rated 27% good-to-excellent, as of June 14, up 2% from last week.

From the @usda_nass: https://t.co/vWK6GxJGuW

[Quant Reports @quant_reports]

🌱 Soybeans Market Overview 🌱
A brief overview of Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil futures, featuring historical price data and COT report insights.
#Soybean #SoybeanOil #SoybeanMeal #Commodity #Commodities #COTreport #CommodityReport

[David Brock @drbrock37]

Unreal liquidation in corn, beans and wheat.

And this is only through Tuesday. Specs may well have nearly completed their repositioning already.

[Darin D. Fessler ✝️ @DDFalpha]

I knew IA was off the a great start but how great. Let #cmdtyView do the heavily lifting for me this morning...

🟢 Iowa corn is off to a monster start! That white dashed 2026 line is sitting way up at 84% G/E... clear of the entire pack of historical averages, the 3rd-highest opening G/E rating in 30 years. 👀

📊 What does this mean (right now):

⚪ 2026 top of the chart, 84%, breaking away from everything.

🟢 5y avg starts highest of the historicals (80%) but fades hardest through July.

🔴 10y avg the most resilient of the bunch, holding low-to-mid 70s deep into summer.

🔵🟣🟡 15/20/30y all cluster mid-70s early, then grind lower into August.

📉 The pattern every line shares: ratings peak early and erode as the season grinds on heat, dryness, and disease chip away. So a hot start is great, but the trend line is gravity. The question is always how much altitude you bank before the summer slide.

📉 Great G/E start, where they finish:

🔹 2025 Peak 87, Finish 71
🔹 2022 Peak 86, Finish 65
🔹 2020 Peak 85, Finish 47
🔹 1998 Peak 84, Finish 74

🐻 Market angle: A top 3 start = a crop with serious yield potential out of the gate, which leans bearish for new crop corn until/unless weather throws a wrench in.

Lots of runway between now and pollination though. 🌽⚡

[Nickolas Bennesby, CGA @nickbennesby]

Soja com cara e cheiro hein 🍀

[Marcelo Brito @marcelobrito87]

@WallersGallery @MentalidadFeroz @grok @grok encontra para comprar no Brasil ?

[Quant Reports @quant_reports]

🌱 Soybeans Market Overview 🌱
A brief overview of Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil futures, featuring historical price data and COT report insights.
#Soybean #SoybeanOil #SoybeanMeal #Commodity #Commodities #COTreport #CommodityReport

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

A memory chip fund is now the fastest-growing ETF in history:

The Memory ETF, $DRAM, accumulated $6.5 billion in assets in just 27 trading sessions since its April 2nd launch, faster than any ETF in history.

By comparison, the Bitcoin ETF, $IBIT, which previously held this record, took 30 trading sessions to cross this threshold.

$DRAM is now up +84% since April 2nd, topping a record $10 billion in assets over 30 trading sessions.

Furthermore, the fund ranks among the top 10 US ETFs by year-to-date inflows, out of over 5,000 listed funds.

$DRAM is also now in the top 20 most traded ETFs by volume, up from the 34th most traded at the start of May.

The memory chip trade is hotter than ever.

[David Brock @drbrock37]

Not only is export pace robust, so is our demand base...lot of customers

Export sales to almost everyone is UP

Out of the TOP TWENTY 24/25 buyers, only THREE have bought less corn this year than last year
- Guatemala: -1 mbu.
- Dominican Republic: -4 mbu.
- Panama: -4 mbu.

[Mike McGlone @mikemcglone11]

More Inflation or Reversion? Soybeans Could Guide

Soybeans closely track the Bloomberg Energy Spot Subindex (same-chart syndrome) and could point to the implications of the oilseed reverting or staying above $12 per bushel. Soybeans breaching $12 would exacerbate food and energy inflation -- at a time when affordability is a top US election issue. My graphic highlights a primary factor signaling a potential endgame for the current surge in energy prices: plunging natural gas.

Full report on the Bloomberg here: https://t.co/ClabnVxKQL {BI COMD}
#soybeans #food #energy #naturalgas @BBGIntelligence

[Rich Nelson @RichNelsonMkts]

Here's the full breakdown of the products the trade is interested in...

[Andrew Whitelaw @WheatWatcher]

The US farm trade deal with China in one chart. An agreement to go back to Biden levels of trade.

[EnV Beanies @EVB88888888]

The US officials are not concerned about real trade but rather concerned about the story they can spin 🙄

[Quant Reports @quant_reports]

🌱 Soybeans Market Overview 🌱
A brief overview of Soybean, Soybean Meal, and Soybean Oil futures, featuring historical price data and COT report insights.
#Soybean #SoybeanOil #SoybeanMeal #Commodity #Commodities #COTreport #CommodityReport