Kevin March

cofounder @jpegtrading

[Kevin March @march_io]

this one trick is how they get you 👀👀👀👀

[Michael (Hedge Fund Manager) @HedgeFundFomo]

SpaceX is set to IPO

You know what other company had an IPO?

Enron.

Yikes.

[Kevin March @march_io]

yo @BlockFi, dis u?

[Kevin March @march_io]

why is @Spotify harder to login to than @coinbase

[Kevin March @march_io]

“PM-powered risk engine for DeFi: exploit probability and depeg signals feeding into lending protocols in real time. (insider information becomes a feature not a bug)”

This turns into more or less a whistleblower reward, incentivizing someone with inside info to broadcast to the market for everyone’s benefit.

It wouldn’t really change the outcome, in the case a stablecoin issuer becomes insolvent, the people with access to that info first are getting out the door first but the net outcome is still everyone loses the same amount.

Doing this privately as a lending protocol so that you uniquely can manage risk for your users becomes an interesting feature.

“Come lend to my protocol and we’ll make sure that if any of the collateral is bad, it affects our users the least!”

A better version of @NexusMutual IMO because you don’t need to trust event resolution, all you have to do is trust someone to be greedy

[good @thenarrator]

top 1% of prediction market ideas i've come across of which some are live, some are being built, some are still concepts:

> impact markets: trade the consequence of events on real assets, not the probability

> conditional/sequential markets: markets that unlock based on prior outcomes. cascading probability trees where one resolution opens the next tradeable question (came up in a conversation)

> PM-powered risk engine for DeFi: exploit probability and depeg signals feeding into lending protocols in real time. (insider information becomes a feature not a bug)

> accuracy-based undercollateralized lending: your prediction track record becomes your onchain credit score. (skill reduces collateral requirements)

> event-hedged stablecoins: stablecoin running PM positions underneath to hedge purchasing power against macro events the user never sees

> probability API for AI agents: PM infrastructure consumed by billions of autonomous systems, not human traders. the TAM shift from millions to everything

> continuous probability surfaces: full distributions instead of binary yes/no. one pool, entire outcome range tradeable

> self-funding prediction markets: losing capital finances the outcome being predicted. the bet funds its own resolution

> pre-IPO event contracts: retail exposure to private company trajectories years before any S-1

> parlays with correlation pricing: stacked predictions with proper correlation models (solves the bounded payout problem while generating the most valuable correlation dataset in finance)

> prediction markets as recommendation engine: personalized market discovery based on your accuracy profile, trading history, and domain strengths (the tiktok algorithm for predictions)

> institutional execution infrastructure: cross-venue routing, unified APIs, and abstraction layer as PM fragmentation accelerates

> 0DTE-style micro markets: ultra short duration, high-gamma-equivalent payouts, same day resolution

> prediction market data as an intelligence product: packaging cross-venue flow, whale positioning, and probability shifts into a subscription feed for funds and news desks

this is not exhaustive

if you're building something that doesn't fit any of these categories that's probably a good sign, feel free to comment below

[Kevin March @march_io]

You realize that at some point someone, somewhere has to take risk, yes? Market makers generally absorb some risk before hedging. The concept that an RFQ cannot have additive liquidity is just purely wrong.

Particularly for RWA assets where the constraint is the amount of balance sheet inventory being spread across a long list of assets to provide liquidity. It’s generally not that market makers are unwilling to quote it with large amounts of depth. Being able to recycle the same bid side depth for 100 markets makes it dramatically more efficient to quote impressive depth via an RFQ than it is via a CLOB.

[Kevin March @march_io]

@wuseokjung_ really thought this was meant as a coworking space for people who own corgis and I’m so disappointed

[Silicon Salvage @SiliconSalvage]

I told a guy at a barbecue last weekend that I had been buying busted small-cap software stocks at 4x free cash flow, and he looked at me with the specific facial expression of a man who has just realized he is trapped in a conversation with someone who voluntarily reads 10-Ks on vacation. He asked, with great gentleness, if I had considered Nvidia. I said I had considered Nvidia in the way one considers jumping off a bridge: briefly, theoretically, and with a clear understanding of the outcome.

I told him I owned a company that sells dental practice management software to 11,000 orthodontists and that the CEO, a 64-year-old man named Greg who has not updated his LinkedIn since 2017, was, in my professional opinion, the single greatest capital allocator alive in North America today, and that I would, if legally permitted, have Greg’s name tattooed on my forearm.

He asked if Greg knew this. I said Greg did not know I existed, and that this was the foundation of our relationship and the source of its strength. He excused himself to go check on his children, who, I observed, were not present at the barbecue. I stood by the grill alone for the next 40 minutes, eating directly from a bag of buns, thinking about Greg, who at that exact moment was, somewhere in suburban Indianapolis, almost certainly buying back stock at prices that will, in 2031, be regarded as the single greatest gift any small-cap CEO has ever given his shareholders, and the host’s wife came over and asked, with palpable concern, if I needed a ride home, and I said no, I needed nothing, I had Greg, and Greg was enough, and I have not been invited back to that house, and I do not care, because Greg loves me even though Greg does not know I am alive, and the math, as it has always been in every great deep value trade in history, is the only thing in this country that has not lied to me.

[Kevin March @march_io]

the bonnie blue of VC

[Tim Draper @TimDraper]

52 pitches in 52 minutes. All below 40 degrees.

I've sat through thousands of pitches over 40 years inside conference rooms, coffee shops, Zoom calls, and pretty much any venue you could think of. The ones that stick out are the ones where a founder is so convicted they'll pitch through anything.

So… I took 52 pitches in 52 minutes sitting in an ice bath at below 40 degrees.

What I was watching for was the founder.

How do they carry themselves when conditions are uncomfortable? When the circumstances aren't ideal and the room (or in this case, the water) is working against them?

Pitching through stress is practice for everything that comes after. For the moments, where inevitably, everything is harder than they thought it would be. Great founders push through it all to find success, and that's why founders are heroes.

I'm not a frequent cold plunger, but it was a fun experience! Next time, we need the Guinness Book of World Records there.

Have an idea you want me to hear? Meet me in the ice bath. 🧊

Thanks to Business Insider for covering:

https://t.co/ZDG3UJPr6c

[Kevin March @march_io]

@Grantblocmates @altdotfun ftx would've blown ur minds haha

[Kevin March @march_io]

@RobAnon extraordinarily relatable frustration

[Kevin March @march_io]

@austincampbell bro but ai

[Kevin March @march_io]

@KobeissiLetter https://t.co/pOmXWSSeR6

[Kevin March @march_io]

I am excited to announce that next month I'll be underwriting a very profitable insurance product called NYC SafeAgain™!

Unrelated, this month I am hiring aggressively for squads of ruffians to harass people in the streets of NYC immediately (ruffian applications in thread 🧵)

[Kevin March @march_io]

I am excited to announce that next month I'll be underwriting a very profitable insurance product called NYC SafeAgain™!

Unrelated, this month I am hiring aggressively for squads of ruffians to harass people in the streets of NYC immediately (ruffian applications in thread 🧵)

[The Kobeissi Letter @KobeissiLetter]

BREAKING: Iran has launched "Hormuz Safe," a Bitcoin-backed insurance service for shipping companies that want to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Details include:

1. The Iranian government says it could generate more than $10 billion in revenue from the program

2. The service will be for "Iranian shipping companies and cargo owners"

3. "The shipment will be covered from the moment of confirmation and signed receipt will be given to the owner," Iran says

4. It is unclear if this insurance service will be charged in addition to tolls, which have been as much as $2 million per ship

Iran says an official website with more information is "coming soon."

[Kevin March @march_io]

@AntiFeminismAU if you work in CS and you think the reason you’re not getting hired is because of women then it’s because you’re bad at math

[Kevin March @march_io]

@Timccopeland 10/10 puppy, a little small but it'll do

[Kevin March @march_io]

@Timccopeland plz post puppy pics in the meantime

[Kevin March @march_io]

@stacy_muur @GSR_io @q42_co @mf__xyz @galaxyhq @Initialized @DraperVC @frachtisvc @colosseum @blackwood @cbventures @lattice_fund @1kxnetwork @buildonbase @SeliniCapital @JME_Ventures @jpegtrading has written 5 checks over that time period

[Kevin March @march_io]

@ZKZeroKnowledge What is this, a Consensus afterparty?

[Kevin March @march_io]

@richardchen39 Just a 15% access fee bro that’s nothing bro