Teknoloji devlerinin hisse senetleri kötü performans gösteriyor bir süredir.
Bunun nedenlerinden birisi de hisse senedi geri alımlarını durdurmuş olmaları.
Yıllardır bu şirketlerin en büyük “hissedar dostu” silahı buyback’ti.
Yani kendi hisselerini piyasadan toplayıp hisse başına kârı şişirmek, arzı azaltmak ve fiyatı desteklemek.
Ama yapay zekâ yatırımları bunu engelliyor.
Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta ve Amazon gibi en büyük YZ yatırımcılarına baktığımda tablo net: nakit artık hissedara dönmek yerine veri merkezlerine, GPU’lara ve enerji altyapısına akıyor.
Bence bu çok önemli.
Çünkü son 10 yılda Big Tech hisselerini taşıyan ana sütunlardan biri sadece büyüme değildi.
Agresif geri alımların da büyük rolü vardı.
Şirketler her çeyrek milyarlarca dolarlık kendi hissesini alarak piyasada sürekli bir alıcı gibi davranıyordu.
Şimdi o alıcı zayıflıyor.
Yani en azından kısa vadede hisse senetleri üzerindeki baskı devam edecek gibi gözüküyor.
Warren Buffett on Visa and Mastercard:
"I could have bought them as well, and looking back, I should have."
These stocks don't dip often, but when they do...
Take notice.
$V $MA
@nataninvesting The issue about $BABA is that China stocks are really dependent on politics but I believe that with big ups and downs it moves towards its fair value around 200$
I keep hearing people say that user growth and revenue growth at $DUOL will decline, but I haven't heard an actual first-principles reason for that to be true.
Here are 10 reasons they will continue to grow in my opinion. Would love to see anyone put together a list this strong of reasons growth will slow.
1) They continue to iterate and improve the app, optimizing for maximizing LTV of each person who uses the app.
2) AI-driven improvements to the app will only enhance its value proposition. Video call with Lily is scratching the surface of what they can and will do with AI. This will also drive higher ARPU as people upgrade to Max to take advantage of these features.
3) Lots of people say that people with Duolingo is that its users don't have good language outcomes. It will always be the case that you get out of it what you put into it. However, AI will supercharge learning outcomes and lead to better and faster learning for the same amount of time spent on the app. People love to highlight the AI headwinds but seldom consider that the AI tailwinds are probably stronger.
4) They are testing bypassing the App store/Play Store for subscriptions. That's a 30% tax on every dollar they make. Huge tailwind for revenue growth just with existing users as they optimize that switch. Another long-term ARPU tailwind.
5) Chess is their fastest growing vertical ever. They have not put any real emphasis on Math, Music, or Chess. They have a learning platform that is applicable to anything that requires repetition for mastery. The TAM is much larger than just language learning.
6) They have proven extremely adept at international expansion and they still have so much geographic expansion to do.
7) They've developed an AI-driven testing protocol for their English proficiency testing that tracks eye movement, reading, screen capture, etc. and finds cheating in real time. How many schools, from elementary to college, would kill for that tech in a modern world where cheating on tests with the help of AI is getting ever more prevalent? What does a license deal look like for that tech?
8) They haven't optimized their ad revenue generation because their focus is subscription revenue. I'm willing to bet they could easily grow ad revenue if they wanted to very easily by making ads more targeted.
9) The app is stickier today than it was yesterday, which is stickier than it was last month, which is stickier than it was last year, etc. This will continue to be true as they continue to optimize through continued A/B testing.
10) They have the far and away the biggest data library on learning outcomes from all their previous testing and exercises. Imagine the improvements that will come from letting AI go nuts on that proprietary data set and how the product will only get stronger from here.
Everyone keeps telling me THAT revenue is going to slow down, but NOBODY has told me WHY revenue is going to slow down.