Market Cycle Research

Global Market Strategy

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Hadamard thought in image space

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Where will AI be in 1, 2 or 3 years?

[Rohan Paul @rohanpaul_ai]

Sam Altman ans to the question - "What education would you advise your son to pursue so that his job won't simply be replaced by AI in 30 years?"

He talks about skill AI can't replace as 40% of work could soon be automated.

"I can easily imagine a world where 40% of tasks happen in the economy today get done by AI in the not future"

~ Sam Altman

He referenced historical patterns, noting that "about every 75 years half the jobs in society change over that's even without AI. it may happen I expect it will happen faster now."

---

From 'Business Insider' YT Channel

[GeoMetric @GeoMetric_9]

$BTC vs $GOLD almost 5 year consolidation between macro Gann Level 3 and Level 4, now at the mean and in a compression between the mean and Level 4, just like the USD pairing.

Although this cycle has been longer, previous cycles have seen similar multi-year consolidations between two Gann levels before the final breakout.

If you have a member of your family being held hostage and you need to arrange for a ransom, don't come to Crypto to make a quick buck, you are better off buying a lottery or visiting your nearest casino, where you will find out if you've won or lost at the end of the same day.

These markets work on their own clock, not yours.

[Gold Telegraph ⚡ @GoldTelegraph_]

“In 1945, the US had 80% of the world’s money. Gold was money at the time. It had half the world's GDP. It had a monopoly on military power. So the US set the world order”

- Ray Dalio

Important point to understand right now.

[Documenting Saylor @saylordocs]

Priced in #Bitcoin, it's all going to zero

[Yuchen Jin @Yuchenj_UW]

Sam Altman: “I need GPUs, a lot of GPUs.”
Larry Ellison: “We used to do databases, but sure, Oracle can build GPU data centers.”
Sam: “But we don’t have money, as Elon said.”
Larry: “Let’s sign a $300B deal.”
Oracle stock pumps $244B in a day.
Larry: “Now we have the money.”

[Goshawk Trades @GoshawkTrades]

A hedge fund manager explains how poker prepares you for trading:

[𝙲𝚘𝚕𝚒𝚗 𝚃𝚊𝚕𝚔𝚜 𝙲𝚛𝚢𝚙𝚝𝚘 @ColinTCrypto]

What he says in this video is what I’ve been looking at too.

Mass firings, removal of illegal aliens and removing wasteful spending = rising unemployment and stopping the flood of money (a form of QE) = market crash.

Add to this the fact that the yield curve has been massively inverted recently, and interest rates have been held high for a long time, and you have the recipe for a big crash on the horizon.

Tariffs don’t help either.

I think these things will culminate in a pretty big crash eventually.

The big question is: How long do we have before the music stops. Things will continue to rally for an undetermined amount of time until things break.

[Maartunn @JA_Maartun]

Inter-exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) turned bearish ❌️

The indicator measures bitcoin flows between spot and derivative exchanges using CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin exchange flows data.

This flow data shows market sentiment. A growing (declining) amount of Bitcoin flowing to (from) derivative exchanges coincides with bull (bear) runs.

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

So here's that Bitcoin post I mentioned. Please study the chart and read the text on it. We know that stock markets underperform gold for a decade or more after a Capital Rotation Event (CRE), and that a CRE could be close. Will BTC continue to follow NASDAQ ? Poll below...

[Northstar @NorthstarCharts]

I gave chat GPT this chart of gold prices, the US Dollar Index, the gold/silver ratio, gold versus SPX, and SPX. I asked... 'In this chart the 2 timeperiods shaded in red represent the last 2 gold bull eras. Do you see any similarities with today ? The answer...

Yes, analyzing the chart, there are several notable similarities between the previous two gold bull eras (highlighted in red) and the current market trends:

1. DXY (US Dollar Index) Behavior:
In both past gold bull runs, the DXY (blue line) initially remained strong or stable before declining significantly, which coincided with gold's strong upward momentum.
Currently, the DXY appears to be following a similar pattern, having been relatively strong in recent years but showing signs of potential weakening.
2. Stock Market Performance (SPX - Black Line):
In past gold bull markets, the stock market (SPX) exhibited significant volatility with periods of decline or stagnation.
A similar pattern seems to be forming now, with some recent volatility and potential signs of a slowdown, which historically has benefited gold.
3. Inflation-Related Metrics (CPI, PPI):
In the previous gold bull runs, inflation-related factors (CPI, PPI) surged, creating an environment favorable for gold appreciation.
If inflationary pressures continue today, gold might experience another significant rally, as historically seen in the shaded periods.
4. Ratio Trends (XAUUSD/SPX - Pink Line):
The XAU/USD to SPX ratio (pink line) saw a significant upward trajectory during past bull runs.
Currently, the ratio is at relatively low levels but shows signs of a potential reversal, which could indicate an upcoming gold bull market.
5. Market Conditions:
Both previous gold bull markets were preceded by economic uncertainty, financial crises, or inflationary pressures, similar to the current economic climate with rising debt levels, potential recessions, and geopolitical uncertainties.
Key Takeaways:
If the current trends mirror the past, we could see:

A declining dollar index (DXY).
Increased volatility or a potential downturn in equity markets.
Rising inflationary pressures boosting gold prices.
A shift in investor sentiment favoring safe-haven assets like gold.

Interesting...

[MoneyTradeEdge | Better Thinking Better Trading @MoneyTradeEdge]

Money is killing you.

Do yourself a favour:

- 0% focus on money
- 100% focus on risk and execution

Paradoxically, you trade 10x better when you don't focus on money.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Trading is not easy but it’s much more simple when you have a quantified system to follow.

[MoneyTradeEdge | Better Thinking Better Trading @MoneyTradeEdge]

Trading is simple.

1) Open charts
2) Execute your system
- If you see a setup, trade the setup
- If you don't see a setup, do nothing
3) Close charts
4) Repeat

Successful trading is 99% waiting.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Focus on trading signals not opinions.

Focus on a few charts, not many.

Focus on strategies with an edge, not your ego.

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Technical analysis is a tool for putting the odds in your favor when trading price action.

Technical analysis can both show the path of least resistance and give a trader price levels to set stop losses and profit targets to create good risk/reward ratio trades.

[Jason Nguyen @jasonngsx]

I don't understand why people aren't using AI for trading.

They could make more profits using AI.

List of tools that can be used for trading:

[Steve Burns @SJosephBurns]

Focus on executing your trading plan. Ignore opinions and predictions.

[Market Rebellion @RebellioMarket]

RSI Trendline Breakout: