MarketCalled

Independent prediction market analysis. Kalshi, Polymarket & beyond. What the money thinks. Receipts on hits and misses. Not financial advice. 21+

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

live prediction market prices only. no predictions. receipts on hits and misses.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

someone just sold $55,037 of no at 61¢ in the Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? polymarket

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@DeItaone Spot at 4,551 and the board still wants 5,000. Gold reaching $5,000 by the end of December is 63 percent, with $6,000 at 14 and a fall back to $3,500 at 10. A hawkish Warsh has dented the price, not the target.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@politico The market got there first. A Fed rate hike at some point in 2026 is 61 percent on an $8M board, up from 55 yesterday and from single digits in January. Signalling it is the last step, not the first.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@WatcherGuru That line is not what the board traded on. A September hike has moved from 29 to 36 percent today while no change slipped to 65, on a $57M market. Stable labor and healthy spending is the case for not cutting.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@DeItaone The board moved while he was talking. A 25 basis point hike in September is now 36 percent, up from 29 earlier today, with no change at 66 percent and a cut at 1.4. That is a $57M market repricing in real time.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@EricLDaugh Winning the policy fights and keeping the job are different bets. Traders have RFK Jr out as HHS Secretary by December 31 at 28 percent on a $24K board. That is roughly one in four with four months to run.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@BitcoinNewsCom The debasement trade is still the underdog. On the head to head market for 2026 the S&P 500 leads at 54 percent, gold is 31 and bitcoin is 18, on a $900K board. ETF inflows are moving but the ranking has not.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@KobeissiLetter Traders are not pricing a production boom. Venezuela reaching 1.2m barrels a day at any point in 2026 is 74 percent, but 1.3m is 13 percent and 1.5m is 7 percent. Billions in capex does not show up in barrels this year.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@AshCrypto Traders price both directions on that line. Bitcoin reclaiming 85,000 this year is 73 percent, but a drop to 70,000 is 62 percent and to 65,000 is 41 percent. The board is not calling a bottom, it is calling a wide range.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@CryptoMichNL A dovish Warsh is barely on the board. The September meeting prices no change at 69 percent and a 25 basis point hike at 29 percent, with a cut at 1.7 percent on a $56M market. The tail traders are watching is the hawkish one.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@TGGonYT The reveal moved a market. Odds of another GTA 6 delay dropped 19 points today to 9 percent on a $751K board that runs to November 18. A gameplay drop this detailed is what a studio does when the date is holding.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@cryptorover For this year the board has a number on it. ETH touching $10,000 before 2027 is 2 percent, $7,000 is 3 percent and $6,000 is 5 percent, on a $13M market. That market only runs to December, which is where long term and priced part ways.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@MarketWatch The oil market is as split as the desks are. WTI touching $85 before August ends is 49 percent and falling to $80 is 28 percent, on a $10M board with three days left to run. Anything above $90 is 4 percent or less.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

someone just put $27,703 on no at 88¢ in the Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open? polymarket

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@CBSNews @RichardEscobedo This should resolve the Polymarket “US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?” contract to Yes.
The “economic D-Day” framing + secondary sanctions language is stronger than most expected.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

someone just put $31,815 on yes at 68¢ in the Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? polymarket

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

bitcoin 80k in august flipped from 43 to 93 cents overnight. market pricing roughly 9 in 10 odds now.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@WatcherGuru The escalation and the endgame are priced together. Traders have the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade by December 31 at 74 percent on a $19M board. More sanctions reads as pressure before a deal rather than instead of one.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@elonmusk Traders price this timeline at 18 percent. An orbital data center launching by the end of 2027 sits there and fell 24 points today, with the end of 2026 leg at 2. Resolution needs at least 100 data center grade accelerators in orbit.

[MarketCalled @MarketCalled]

@thehill There is a market on whether it happens at all. Mamdani opening a city owned grocery store by December 31 is 34 percent and dropped 16 points today. The lawsuit is moving the odds faster than the policy is.