andrew

[andrew @marketdoeswhat]

Pinned

[Tom Luongo @TFL1728]

Remember, in the first stage of a currency crisis, the country who's currency is in trouble rises, as capital is called home to deal with the problem.

Then it falls.

Both the EUR and the JPY are in this boat now, but for different reasons. And both are at the mercy of the Fed for their future.

Now, look who is making deals with Trump and who is trying to backdoor him into a forever war he doesn't want to continue... and you have your answer as to who's really in trouble and who's just another extension of the US finally asserting its financial independence.

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

This is truly egregious.

On May 13th, someone put $25 million in premium, 10,000x volume, in United Health, $UNH, $300 puts expiring 09/19/2025.

Then news of DOJ investigating for fraud came out.

$UNH dropped, and is down 50% in last month.

This trader is up $80 million.

Unusual.

[Nassim Nicholas Taleb @nntaleb]

Actually, it is almost all CLEAR CONSCIENCE

[Google DeepMind @GoogleDeepMind]

Introducing AlphaEvolve: a Gemini-powered coding agent for algorithm discovery.

It’s able to:

🔘 Design faster matrix multiplication algorithms
🔘 Find new solutions to open math problems
🔘 Make data centers, chip design and AI training more efficient across @Google. 🧵

[andrew @marketdoeswhat]

@michaelxpettis Point 3/4 is so so spot-on from business perspective. Except agriculture and few high tech, cn doesn’t have much to import from the US anyway

[Trademetry @trademetry]

Look at these guys making out like bandits. I made similar trades for same strikes but only 50 to 100 contracts each for May 16 expiry instead. My entry was well before these flows came and spiked the premiums. But these guys (big funds) boldly playing these massive 580 strikes 1 day out and closing at open multifold have probably connections to the administration. @CheddarFlow

[Guy LeBas @lebas_janney]

If you've ever sat in a room with a Chinese govt delegation (I have, many years ago), you know what it looks like: officials repeating a prepared statement verbatim time and time again and rejecting your initial position time and time again.

[Boring_Business @BoringBiz_]

Warren Buffett on what caused the 2008 global financial crisis

One of my favorite clips of him. Simple explanation but spot on

[CN Wire @Sino_Market]

BrainCo, one of the Hangzhou-based Six Little Dragons, has developed a revolutionary bionic hand that interprets faint neural signals beneath the skin's surface, without surgical implantation. The prosthetic can be donned in just 30 seconds and features convenient USB Type-C charging.
#CHINA #NEURALINK

[Trading Composure @TradingComposur]

Overthink your losses and you'll attract more losses.

[David Orr @orrdavid]

Anyone know what is causing this?

[unusual_whales @unusual_whales]

And tell them to see how the market is doing at Unusual Whales.

See all options, stock, politician trades, GEX, and much more on site.

Set up the alerts you want, too.

See more: https://t.co/F4eY8aRqum

[Ian Sams @IanSams]

Two stories, same day, I’m sure totally unrelated…

(left) NYT: UAE pours $2 billion into Trump crypto coins

(right) Bloomberg: Trump White House may ease restrictions on selling AI chips to UAE

[Brian McCarthy @briangobosox]

@CGasparino @Tesla OK, that isn’t what he said AT ALL.

https://t.co/eD3zO9tt0F

[andrew @marketdoeswhat]

@yetanothrsearch Whats ur take on businesses like Dollar tree? Benefiting?

[Michael Every @TheMichaelEvery]

2025, day 112

Good morning from Asia.

Pope Francis died on Easter Monday. President Trump will attend his funeral in Rome, and then the world has another key election to focus on;

The chief of the World Economic Forum, Schwab, stood down with immediate effect - there won’t be any election for his successor, just a search committee;

Trump went on another rant against Fed Chair Powell, saying the same things many of those covering the Fed are,…but far less politely and inappropriately for those same commentators;

Trump also posted about the justice system again as the country waits to see what the Supreme Court has to say about the Alien Enemies Act of 1798;

Russian President Putin signed a 20-year Strategic Partnership Agreement with Iran. After Ukraine, that looks like no ‘Noxin’ win for Trump on that front either; as

The Pentagon looks to be in chaos, the White House saying that it is trying to reject Secretary of Defence Hegseth, who still has Trump’s backing. Don’t think this isn’t partly related to Iran, and who wants jaw-jaw vs war-war;

That’s as Israel continues to rehearse for a strike on Iran; and on Hezbollah, as the latter refuses to disarm and attempts to rebuild in southern Lebanon;

The Atlantic claims Hitler relied on tariffs, for obvious reasons, but with no basis in historical fact. Hitler used lots of economic statecraft, but tariffs were not his primary vector at all;

China threatened any country that strikes a trade deal with the U.S. with negative implications for it - which any trade deal the U.S. signs now must logically have. In short, it’s choose or be chosen time, as I’ve warned for years; as

US Vice-President Vance was invited to Indian PM Modi’s home, India placed as 12% tariff on Chinese steel, and talk is now of a “roadmap” potentially elevating U.S.-India relations, making a mockery of the BRICS as an anti-U.S. wall, and perhaps moving us closer to the foundation stone of a new global architecture;

Which is one of the key recommendations about how the U.S. might fix the broken global system from Foreign Affairs, who wants a new one where people run more balanced trade with each other, starting by the U.S. striking key deals, rather than shouting “because markets!” while ignoring mercantilism;

Politico asks ‘Could Canada join the EU? Unlikely … but not impossible’ —as if the U.S. would just stand by and watch that happen— as 🇨🇦 poll favourite PM Carney says he wants to increase federal spending by 1% of GDP for the next four years;

French President Macron reportedly claims Europe is ready to take the burden of becoming the global reserve currency (in the current broken system)…. which means a much higher euro, a much larger Eurozone trade deficit, much less European industry and rearmament, and much more European inequality. Unless Europe thinks it can have a global reserve currency while running trade surpluses… which sounds like the U.S. plan everyone is decrying; and

Gold hit another record high at $3,445 before dipping slightly. The IMF, World Bank, and G20 finance ministers meetings this week may be… ‘interesting’.

[Scott84HendersonFL1776 @SangerEatbabies]

Just released it looks like Byron Donalds was provided insider knowledge of Trumps tariffs. On Monday it was released he purchased 330k worth of stocks and sold 360k on the same day.

[andrew @marketdoeswhat]

@TheMichaelEvery Greenland commentary😂

[Michael Kao @UrbanKaoboy]

Musings of the Day, 4/11/25:

Pundits and markets are making broad assumptions about Tariffs being Inflationary or Stagflationary.

Not so fast — as this morning’s NEGATIVE PPI indicates.

I’ve said for months that I think the net effect of the Trump 2.0 Policy Playbook will be net DEFLATIONARY.

I wasn’t even talking about just Tariffs by themselves, but at current levels with China, Tariffs are no longer Tariffs but shadow EMBARGOES — that is straight up DEFLATIONARY because it halts all economic activity. See what I said last night to a group of Retail CEOs below.

If global Tariffs were only 10%, then I would agree on Stagflationary, because they’re just large enough to pass through to consumers and raise Prices and slow Growth, but not large enough to completely destroy Demand.

When Tariffs are over 100%, they not only make the underlying Supply Curve INELASTIC (more vertical), it also induces a DOWNWARD DEMAND SHOCK, which causes Prices to fall much more sharply than against Elastic Supply.

[andrew @marketdoeswhat]

@shaunrein @JShijiu I just bought as well, which section is relevant? I know most of these topics as I’m close with it but want to get a take specifically wrt tariffs and current macro environment