marketmagic

you can just do things..

[AskLivermore @asklivermore]

Health Care has a 100% win rate in the back half of midterm election years.

Not 80%. Not 90%. ONE HUNDRED PERCENT.

I looked at every midterm year since 2006.
Here's how each sector performed from July to December:

1. Health Care $XLV: +8.46% avg, 100% win rate
2. Industrials $XLI: +7.18%, 80%
3. Materials $XLB: +6.71%, 60%
4. Financials $XLF: +6.68%, 80%
5. Cons. Discretionary $XLY: +6.35%, 60%
6. Cons. Staples $XLP: +6.29%, 80%
7. Utilities $XLU: +6.18%, 80%
8. Technology $XLK: +6.08%, 60%
9. Energy $XLE: +3.26%, 60%
10. Real Estate $XLRE: -7.94%, 0%

The S&P 500 $SPY averaged: +5.95%.

Three things nobody is talking about:
1. Health Care outperforms EVERY sector in midterm H2. Not tech. Not discretionary. Health Care. Five for five.
2. Tech drops to #8. The darling of every other year becomes middle of the pack when midterm volatility kicks in (60% win rate).
3. Real Estate has NEVER been positive Jul-Dec in a midterm year. 0 for 2. Negative every single time.

2026 is a midterm year.
The rotation is underway. It always does.

[Jukan @ICML @jukan05]

$DRAM ETF has added CXMT’s parent company.

[Gaetano @crux_capital_]

If you care about $AAOI $NOK $COHR $LITE

You want to understand their capacity ramps

Especially what they are saying about 6-inch InP capacity

This article lays it out!

Check it out

[Ren @ren_stocks]

How I add to my highest-conviction names when they are dipping

This chart is the perfect picture of how I build a position in names I truly believe in, like $AAOI, $SIVE, $SNDK, and $NBIS even on weakness

The macro noise is hard to read. Sector rotation comes and goes. None of that tells me when the bottom is in, and I’m not going to pretend it does.

So I stopped trying to guess the bottom. Instead, I add across 4 to 5 tranches, not to time it perfectly, but to make the most out of a bad situation.

Here’s what has to be true before I even start nibbling:

• The future catalysts are real and on the calendar
• The technology is best-in-class and a genuine chokepoint in the AI buildout
• Revenue, backlog, and margin are good and improving
• Demand far outstrips supply
If those boxes are checked, the price coming down isn’t a threat. It’s an opportunity to lower my cost average on something I already want to own.

How the 4/5 tranches work, reading the chart:

Buy 1 (first tranche): The name is still falling. I’m not catching a knife, I’m starting small. One unit in, four to go.

Buy 2 (second tranche): Price keeps sliding into the base. I add again. My average is coming down, and I still have most of my cash.

Buy 3 (third tranche): This lands near the actual bottom of the range, there is now way of actually knowing if this is the bottom but it should at least be going sideways for a while, trying to form a base.

Buy 4 (fourth tranche): Now we’re off the lows and a recovery is forming. I’m adding into strength, confirming the base held.

Buy 5 (final tranche): The trend is clearly back up. I also like to buy into strength.

No matter where the bottom actually was, I was buying through the whole range and came out the other side with a full position at a lower average.

TAs help timing buys but they don’t make the decision.

The decision was made a long time ago when I decided to go long, at best I will corroborate that the thesis still holds.

Know what you hold.

If the thesis is real, drawdowns are when you average down, not when you sell.

(credit to @Mon for this great image)

[marketmagic @marketmagic2]

@OddStats what happened past 3 times?

[marketmagic @marketmagic2]

wtf are we looking at $spy

[hoagietoby @hoagietoby]

@LillyL464172 @PradeepBonde I use https://t.co/r1uwuX6fq8 and it’s also what Qullamaggie used. I just search any specific ticker that’s gapping up pre market and see the news

[Con @__Con_]

I warned you that was the bottom.

I even pinned my post.

Now let me tell you where we're going from here:

$MU beat earnings tremendously (around 20% on both EPS and Revenue), so it pumped 17% now.

Yet, basically every single stock from $AAOI to $INTC has barely moved.

This will change.

The market is giving you a great buying opportunity on these current names.

So these are my price targets:

$OPTX - $21
$BRUN - $60
$ASYS - $70
$SHMD -$19
$AAOI - $360
$IQE - $110
$MU - $2000
$IREN - $100
$CRWV - $250
$GLXY - $60

A lot of these names still have a 2-3x from my price target here.

And that's my bear case.

But, there will be a time to rotate into the AI beneficiaries.

That time is not now though.

Now is the time to be buying.

Until then, much higher.

Few...

[Thomas Braziel @Bkclaims]

I like Nic and generally agree with a lot of his work, but I think he's using the wrong framework here. This isn't a CCC bond. It's a distressed special situations security.

I've spent the better part of two decades in distressed credit and roughly the last 12 years buying distressed crypto. I've competed with or worked alongside many of the largest distressed investors. When I ask myself who the marginal buyer of STRC is today, it isn't a traditional high-yield fund.

It's an opportunistic credit fund. Those funds don't wake up looking for 15% returns. They generally need 30%+ IRRs before they commit capital to something this uncertain.

Today you can buy:

• Government refund claims targeting 10-15% IRRs.

• Distressed crypto claims with recoveries denominated in dollars and often substantial collateral protection for 20-25%+ IRRs.

STRC is riskier than both. You're subordinated. There are essentially no meaningful lender protections. The dividend is non-cumulative. The collateral is one volatile asset. There is negative convexity.

And unlike a traditional distressed loan, you don't control the collateral or have meaningful enforcement rights. This isn't lending against Bitcoin.

It's taking directional Bitcoin exposure through a structurally weak preferred security.

There's an important distinction people miss.

Common shareholders have a fiduciary relationship with management. Creditors don't. Management's job is to obtain the cheapest possible financing for shareholders - not to create an attractive security for creditors.

To Strategy's credit, they did exactly that. They issued extraordinarily issuer-friendly paper because the market let them. Good for them!

But once that paper leaves the hands of income-oriented crypto investors, who is the next buyer? That's the question. I think it's an opportunistic distressed investor. And that buyer isn't showing up for a 15-20% required return. They're looking for something closer to a 30%+ IRR.

At an 11.5% coupon, that implies a price of roughly $38.33 (11.5 ÷ 30%), versus about $76.67 for a 15% yield and $57.50 for a 20% yield. Maybe 30% isn't exactly the right number. Maybe it's 35%. Maybe it's 40%. But I think anchoring this off CCC spreads misses who the actual marginal buyer is.

[Ren @ren_stocks]

I'm long $AAOI.

This is one of the fastest growing companies in the whole space, and the fact that it's trading -35% from its ATH is just a gift I can't pass up. I've doubled down on my position and averaged up.

AAOI is one of my largest holdings. I've been in this name since 40, doubled down at 80, saw it go to ATH at 230 and now we're back at 145. Yeah, it's a high beta stock.

The AI buildout rotates across layers. Right now it's memory's turn again. Does that mean the pure photonics plays are done? Not in the slightest.

AAOI went through a complete makeover, from a sleepy CATV supplier to one of the fastest growing names in the space. And the revenue is going vertical:

Q2 guided to $180-198M, a 19-31% jump in one quarter. Full-year 2026 over $1.1 billion, up 141%.

800G shipped first volume to a major hyperscaler in Q1, and the real ramp starts now. 1.6T orders already in hand. The edge nobody else has: AAOI grows its own laser chips in-house on MOCVD. The CEO's words: "MOCVD is on complete backlog."

The rest of the industry waits in line for supply.

AAOI makes its own.

The constraint isn't demand. It's factories. Management confirmed demand exceeds supply through at least mid-2027. When supply is the bottleneck, you don't sell product, you allocate scarce capacity to whoever pays most.

The ramp shows how serious they are: 100K units/month exiting Q1, 650K+ by year-end, 930K+ by 2027.

The risks are real, customer concentration is extreme, it's volatile, it's priced for perfection. But none of that matters when hyperscalers buy every unit you can make. That $230 ATH is just a stepping stone.

I broke the whole thing down on my Substack, valuation, the concentration math, the CPO transition, the 3.2T roadmap, a 12-month price target. You can redeem a free paid post.

Go check it out.

https://t.co/vQBYY7sY8r

I'm long $AAOI. ⚡️

[IPO Newsroom @IPONewsroom_]

SK HYNIX IS GOING PUBLIC IN THE 🇺🇸 IN JUST 3 WEEKS

SK Hynix is planning a $29.4 Billion US listing with trading set to begin on July 10th

This would be one of the top five share sales in history, comparable in size to Saudi Aramco's record 2019 IPO.

SK Hynix controls 57% of the global high-bandwidth memory market by revenue. HBM is the chip that sits inside every NVIDIA GPU powering the AI buildout. Without it, the data centers do not work.

The numbers behind the business:

Q1 2026 operating profit: $24.3 billion, a record high
Q1 2026 sales: $34 billion, nearly tripling year over year
Stock performance: +300% in Seoul this year
Market cap: over $1 trillion

The proceeds will fund additional capacity expansion and purchases of EUV lithography machines needed to make next-generation chips.

Lead underwriters: Bank of America, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan.

[leki ⚔️ @mkfilko]

$IQE vs $SIVE on daily timeframe, up means $IQE outperforms $SIVE, and vice versa.

It looks like it has formed a bottom here.

> RSI has formed a bullish divergence, where price made a lower low but RSI made a higher low. ✅
> EMAs are flattening out; look at the 10EMA (blue) and how the candles are riding it. ✅
> RSI is continuing to increase towards 50, usually crossing the 50 mark is a bullish signal ✅

$IQE may actually want to outperform $SIVE here. I am watching closely 🙈.

Btw, I don't typically post these kinds of comparison charts but just thought it looked interesting.

[The Boring Investor @boring_invest]

This is the most alpha packed tweet I’ve seen in a very long time. I encourage everyone to read it at least 3 times. $VICR looks super interesting despite the fact that it has been running.

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

Not exactly, memory looks like the most severe current bottleneck. But the big three are all trillion dollar companies, so seems like markets have had more time to price this in but are still going.

IMO Photonics is the next supercycle but we’re closer to the beginning, a lot of the major revenue ramps begin mid 2027.

[James 海外億トレーダー @invester_trade]

マジで全トレーダーにEMA50✖️15分足を使ってほしい。「簡単に勝てるやん」ってなる。
俺もここ数年使ってるけど、1ヶ月で2000万ぐらいならガチで初心者でもいけそう。
具体的な使い方なんだけど、

[Beardo @BeardoTrader]

The narrative that makes the most sense to me right now is that $MU crushes earnings, the market gaps up tomorrow, everyone assumes the coast is clear and gets long, only to get rug pulled later in the day.

[Ariel Hernandez @RealSimpleAriel]

The only thing that should determine how aggressive you are is the traction from your last 5 trades.

Trying to force your way back into a market when you’re not seeing things clearly, your entry tactics aren’t being rewarded, or stocks simply aren’t working is a recipe for disaster.

We all feel like geniuses during the easy periods—and that’s the point. Entries work, follow-through comes quickly, and traction builds almost effortlessly.

When I can’t gain traction, I size down.

If I’m not seeing things well, my entries aren’t working, or stocks aren’t following through, I want to be trading my smallest size—not my biggest.

The market will always be there tomorrow. Protect your capital until the feedback improves.

[Tradable Astronaut @TradableAstro]

I have been doing pretty well in catching regime shifts within the market $SPY

I wish I had better news.

We're still in the ugly window here's everything the data is showing right now🧵

[Roan @RohOnChain]

this is f*cking dangerous

build hedge fund using "loop engineering" that prints alpha 24/7 (Full Guide)

if I had this a year ago, I would've built my hedge fund in a week instead of a year

bookmark before someone takes it down