@PeterMallouk You are right but from 3/24/2000 to 3/28/2013,a total of 13 YEARS, the S&P 500 basically did NOTHING & we are in the biggest ASSET BUBBLE EVER with a crash that will cut the S&P500 in half like it did 2000-2002 & 2008-2009. WE HAD A SECULAR BEAR MARKET FOR 13 YEARS from 2000-2013
The US 10-year REAL bond yield's rise is fast approaching the 75 bps 'danger level' increase that cracked the stock market in 2018, 2022, and early-2025. MONITOR THIS CHART VERY CLOSELY.
“The Federal Government cannot continue to spend more money than it takes in.” - Jimmy Carter (1978)
“For decades we have piled deficit upon deficit, mortgaging our future and our children's future.” - Ronald Reagan (1981)
“We must bring the Federal budget deficit under control.” - George H.W. Bush (1989)
“We must put our fiscal house in order.” - Bill Clinton (1993)
“We can pay down a large portion of the national debt.” - George W. Bush (2001)
“Families across the country are tightening their belts … the federal government should do the same.” - Barack Obama (2010)
“We will start to balance our budget and pay down our debt.” - Donald Trump (2016)
“My plan will reduce the deficit.” - Joe Biden (2022)
“We will balance the federal budget.” - Donald Trump (2024)
@Ross__Hendricks@Downtown@cnbc are wrong. @federalreserve owns 11%-13%. Mutual funds, pension funds, private banks, insurance companies & citizens hold the largest share around 42%. 24% to 32% of debt is owned by foreign countries. 20% is held in the Social Security & Medicare trust funds
Treasury announces bigger “debt buybacks.”
Bitcoin +12%. Gold +4%. US Dollar -1%.
Markets understand what this really means:
More deficits. More debt. And a desperate attempt at financial repression.
Instead of addressing the elephant in the room - higher interest rates driven by relentless spending and surging national debt - Treasury is resorting to financial shenanigans to suppress yields.
Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the free market is mispricing long-term bond yields. So he wants to use the superior judgment and power of central government planners to correct the mistakes of capitalism. Good thing we didn't elect a Democratic Socialist president.
Treasury just announced that it will buy more long-term Treasuries private investors no longer want to hold to try to keep yields from rising. The money to pay for it will ultimately be created by the Fed, sending inflation soaring. That's why gold is already up $125 on the news!
The Treasury Department is calling this a “debt buyback.”
But they’re not reducing the debt.
They’re running huge deficits, buying back old bonds, and issuing even more new ones.
This is debt reshuffling, not debt reduction.
What Scott Bessent did today is a call to SHORT more US bonds.
The government couldn't find enough buyers for its own long bonds, so the government became the buyer.
Argentina does this and Turkey does this.
We now do it 3 months before an election, and the financial press is calling it “decisive leadership.”
These are emerging market tactics, and the effect will be temporary at best.
Bessent will go down as one of the most consequential Treasury secretaries in history, and history will not be kind to him.
Short the bonds.
You cannot own enough gold.
Listen to my full take on this, and what you should own right now:
There is a fake prosperity based on manipulation and stock market. Hormuz is open, food/diesel cheap, US respected in the world like never before. Without MAGA AI filters tho, there is a global war, collapse of US credibility, inflation and social disintegration.
@DougKass@TheJudgeCNBC@CNBC Well said. The fools @cnbc do not realize that the higher the yield, the more interest America is paying on our debt. America is paying $1 trillion interest on the national debt per year and nobody cares, especially the clueless clowns at @cnbc.
#StockMarket#Finances#WallStreet
The STOCK MARKET WILL FAIL & we will have bad times that most people have never seen before. What will cause the problem? Maybe the MASSIVE debt leads to a financial crisis. Will China invade Taiwan? The world is not ready for an event like this
#StockMarket#Finances#WallStreet
America is paying $1 trillion interest on the national debt per year and nobody cares. The stock market has become TOO BIG TO FAIL. If we ever had a 2000-2002 or a 2008 stock market rout, we would have a depression, not a recession.
🚨 U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent Has Threatened Bold Actions To Save The Bond Market Crisis
The U.S. is now facing a bond market crisis as 10-Year yield rises to 4.7%. The Bond Market Can Snap Anytime.
Ray Dalio warns that the U.S. is already past the point of no return and a debt crisis is inevitable. JP Morgan CEO warned that U.S. dollar will no longer be a reserve currency within the next 25 years.
Japan has not even started dumping their U.S. treasury holdings.
Scott Bessent had earlier called for Bretton Woods 2.0 to make the banking and financial system more efficient. He’s now warning traders and institutions of taking aggressive steps.
They have done all of this before:
• 2008: Inflated housing/derivatives bubble → crash → bailouts + QE consolidated bank power.
• 2020: REPO crisis + COVID lockdowns crushed money velocity so they could print $6T without instant hyperinflation (Fitts called it). Accelerated digital payments.
This time, they are preparing for a gold-backed digital currency system.
Gold has now overtaken U.S. Treasuries as the World's Top Reserve Asset.
China has been on a massive gold-buying spree for the last 9 years. South Korea dumped the U.S. dollars and started buying gold after 14 years.
Truly understand gold, before it’s too late. Stop ignoring it.
"Well, we're going to pay down debt. We have a lot of money coming in, much more money than the country has ever seen by hundreds of billions of dollars. And there could be a distribution or dividend to the people of our country. I would say for people that would be middle-income people and lower-income people, we could do a dividend. But one of the things we're going to be doing is reducing debt." - President Trump, August 3, 2025
This was a year ago. What's happened since?
The US National Debt has increased by over $3 trillion, there was no tariff dividend to the people, and inflation has risen.
The reason why S&P 500 earnings estimates keep going up is because for the first time in history, capex expense is now being counted as revenue in Wall Street's forward earnings estimates.
If Wall Street was counting AI capex expense at the same rate as they are counting the capex revenue, then earnings would be negative.
AI is the Enronification of the entire stock market.