Mark Urban

Columnist for Sunday Times, BBC 1990-2024, author; Big Boys Rules, Rifles, Generals, TF Black, Tank War, Skripal Files, Red Devils, Tank. Trustee @I_W_M 2018-26

[Robert Satloff @robsatloff]

IMPORTANT: After a rocky start and a delayed finish, negotiators from #Lebanon and #Israel – with US mediation – concluded their fifth round of talks by signing a trilateral “Framework Agreement.”

This is a major breakthrough and substantial upgrade from previous statements of intent and represents the first “agreement” between the two sides since their short-lived May 1983 peace accord and, potentially, the most significant accord since their armistice, 77 years ago.

(For those who want to check, the 2022 maritime deal was a series of letters each side sent to US mediators and UN officials. in other words, it was a far cry from a signed agreement between the parties.)

The message of the “agreement” is as important as its details. Both Lebanon and Israel were shaken by the insertion of the Lebanese issue into the Iran MOU and the inclusion of Iran in the Lebanon “deconfliction mechanism,” suggesting that the US recognized some legitimate Iranian role in determining Lebanon’s fate. This agreement was a direct riposte to that idea, underscoring that – whatever their differences -- #Beirut and #Jerusalem want to solve their problems themselves, not with #Hezbollah’s patron enjoying a seat at their bargaining table.

The agreement also strengthens those in the US policy process who have championed precedent-shattering Lebanon-Israel negotiations -- which @POTUS inaugurated in April, with the active guidance of @SecRubio – as the vehicle for solving the conundrum of Hezbollah and perhaps even building a new Arab-Israeli peace agreement. Indeed, there are echoes of past American successes in using the terminology of a “framework agreement,” which is the formal title of the original #Egypt-Israel Camp David Accords, the granddaddy of all #MiddleEast peace agreements.  

Hopefully, today’s agreement has a better fate than the May 1983 agreement, providing a firm foundation for lasting security, prosperity and peace. Enemies will try to undermine it, as they did 44 years ago. The need to be strong and resolute is clear.

Even with today’s achievement, enthusiasm needs to be tempered by the political reality of a buoyant Iran and the need to move to full and swift implementation of the terms of the agreement, especially regarding the disarmament of Hezbollah. But now that those promises are spelled out – and with Washington’s active support – the critical next step is clear: translating words on paper into actions on the ground.

[Phil Stewart @phildstewart]

BREAKING- US strikes Iran

* U.S. aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations
*US also hit coastal radar sites
-CENTCOM

Strikes come after Iran hit M/V Ever Lovely on June 25 with a one-way attack drone. The Singapore-flagged cargo ship was exiting the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast at the time of Iran’s attack.

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

@AHWilkes @ValkStrategy Indeed - shaped the whole EFA work share discussion

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

@jtlondon @nickschifrin @IMOSecGen 120-140 (both directions) pre-war, 2-3 a day coming out at height of it

[Nick Schifrin @nickschifrin]

115 vessels have left the Strait of Hormuz in the last 3 days, including at least 15 so far today: 4 using the Iranian route, and 11 using the Omani/southern/US route, says @IMOSecGen.

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

A coercive act in the same week that it was reported a summit aimed at reconciling with Iran will be held in Saudi Arabia. Gulf leaders will twin track it, taking steps to calm tensions, even allowing frozen Iranian assets through, while preparing for another war + lessening Hormuz dependence

[Phil Stewart @phildstewart]

(Reuters) - Tehran reasserted its right on Friday ​to control shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and warned Gulf states against siding with the U.S., a day after an attack on a ship near Oman highlighted the fragility ‌of a preliminary deal to end the Iran war.

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

@BO3673

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

@NikkiJMarks @pinstripedline Too true!

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

I’m hosting with @mattfrei and Nina Khrushcheva guests https://t.co/sQuLF9tYJG

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

Putin’s running out of road financially, and Ukrainian strikes on his heartlands are exposing the failures of his war. So does he escalate or find a way to end it? That’s our topic on today’s @C4TheFourcast give it a listen 👇🏻

[Marc Polymeropoulos @Mpolymer]

He’s giving Lindsey Graham a run for his money, for the most grotesquely obsequious, sycophantic, servile, and frankly pathetic politicians on the planet. My God Europe, he is humiliating the entire continent. @MarkUrban01 and @AmberRuddUK , u know this is my favorite subject that triggers me 😉

[Rob Lee @RALee85]

“Earlier this year, Moscow started a pressure campaign on Belarus in hopes of using it as a springboard to expand Russia’s war in Ukraine or to launch nonconventional operations against members of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, said former and current Russian and European officials…

Moscow’s requests include using Belarusian territory to launch drone attacks on Ukraine, extending the front line westward and drawing Ukrainian troops away from higher-priority areas in the east. Alternatively, Belarus could be used for operations against its NATO neighbors…

To be sure, there aren’t indications that Russia is imminently planning to use Belarus for a military operation, but the possibility is on the table, people familiar with the matter said.”
@tggrove @DariaMatviichuk
https://t.co/aXbYBWGhQ0

[Sir Humphrey @pinstripedline]

If you want to live in walking distance of Salisburys beautiful 123m high cathedral, the house that Sergei Skripal lived in and the GRU used novichok at is up for sale...

I cant begin to imagine what the conveyancing searches will say!

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

Here's what's changing in Ukraine's favour https://t.co/kOTln6sMlw

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

We've heard many times before that Ukraine might be winning its war. But there's some important changes going on right now that have really turned the heat up for Putin

[Shashank Joshi @shashj]

For those keeping count, that will be seven UK prime ministers in just over ten years (see chart). Starmer also holds the record for being the toppled-PM with the largest ever majority in the Commons—much larger than Thatcher in 1990. You can see why he's confused.

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

@Toddyspace It’s a thought. Might help with generational inequality too …

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

A new prime minister? I'm not sure how interested I'll be unless they start dealing with the real issues holding the country back https://t.co/5LVIobe9Jg

[laurence norman @laurnorman]

A reminder folks that @iaeaorg inspectors have been back to Iran since last fall. To visit Bushehr, TRR and other sites.
So the detail is what matters. Can they visit Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan? And to do what? And the new enrichment site they never got to?

[Mark Urban @MarkUrban01]

#puntastic!

[Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick]

Now presumably Josh Simons, who sacrificed his Makerfield seat for Andy Burnham, will be given a peerage - as Lord Simons of Makerdeal perhaps. What one might call the road to Wigan peer?