In 1986 a guy got kicked out of every casino in Vegas for counting cards. So he flew to Hong Kong with $180,000 and started betting on horses instead. He walked away with almost $900 million.
It's Bill Benter. He figured horse racing was just another counting problem. Same math, more moving parts.
He and a partner showed up with $180k and a computer. Benter spent years teaching that computer to guess one thing, the real chance each horse had to win. If his number was better than the odds the bookies gave, he bet. If not, he skipped it.
That's the whole trick. Expected value.
EV = p · b − (1 − p)
Only bet when your win chance p, at odds b, is worth more than your chance of losing.
This recording was never meant to be some hidden gem. Nobody expected Professor Tsitsiklis to hand the whole foundation away in 45 minutes, but that's exactly what happens on the board. Students in that room pay over $80,000 a year to sit through it. It's free right here. It's free right here.
Every quant, every professional bettor, every hedge fund analyst started with this exact hour. Benter just watched it and actually did the homework.
Almost nobody knows this lecture even exists. Watch it before it gets taken down.
The answer is in this video.
"If you are ever tempted to look for outside approval, realize that you have compromised your integrity. If you need a witness, be your own." — Epictetus
"If you still want something in return for surrendering, then you never surrendered. The doorway leading into Realisation is indeed open to all, but the lintel is fixed very low. If you want to get inside, you have to crawl."
Many people see hard work as a sign of virtue. But a strong work ethic doesn't guarantee strong ethics.
Instead of attaching worth to the effort people expend, we should prize the values they exemplify.
Character is a function of generosity and integrity, not industriousness.
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Failing beyond your expertise can fuel success within it.
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Coinbase: we gonna IPO
SEC: you good
SEC: jk we suing you
Coinbase: for what?
SEC: not telling you
Coinbase: wtf
SEC: unregistered securities
Coinbase: which ones?
SEC: not telling you
Coinbase: THEN HOW CAN YOU SUE US? USA can you deal with this?
SEC: ok like Ada and stuff
Coinbase: what about ETH?
SEC: we told you
Coinbase: so is ETH ok??
SEC: not telling you
Coinbase: why won’t you tell us? You’re being unclear
SEC: nuh-uh
Coinbase: so is ETH ok?
SEC: we told you
Coinbase: YES OR NO. CAN YOU BE CLEAR
SEC: stop being ridiculous it’s as clear as day you big dumb dumb boo boo boi. Also ALGO is a dope coin.
I swear the SEC is an elaborate skit put on by monty python