Adfikri Kevin Marvel

Heart on sleeve

[Adfikri Kevin Marvel @marvelkevin]

"Most successes are unhappy. That's why they are successes -- they have to reassure themselves about themselves by achieving something that the world will notice... The happy people are failures because they are on such good terms with themselves that they don't give a damn."

[Mehdi Hasan @mehdirhasan]

“But ‘Greater Israel’ is an antisemitic myth!”

[Robert A. Pape @ProfessorPape]

Is the US-Iran war ending—or is Iran using negotiations to gain more power?

Most coverage assumes the deal ends the crisis

This week's Escalation Trap argues the opposite: Iran's leverage may actually be growing—and what happens next could affect oil prices, inflation, and your wallet

New issue this morning https://t.co/JIMwXTg3o9

[Assal Rad @AssalRad]

That’s because Israel does not consider itself bound by any agreement, cease-fire, or even international law.

It is a rogue, genocidal state.

[Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance]

Rick Rule: The world has systematically underinvested in oil.

- The oil industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by >$1B/day
- This underinvestment will reduce future oil production

Oil is a cyclical industry, and a sustained period of underinvestment will lead to lower production in the future... we are still in the underinvestment period despite high prices.

In addition to the massive underinvestment:

- The industry has to fix oil infrastructure impacted by the Iran war
- The world will have to refill their SPRs
- Countries will expand their SPRs

Hormuz or no Hormuz, the supply/demand picture for oil is favorable over the long term.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

alright, let’s see how many ships Tehran lets through tomorrow

[Shehbaz Sharif @CMShehbaz]

Following intensive talks, we are pleased to announce that the Peace Deal between the United States of America and Islamic Republic of Iran has been REACHED. Both sides have declared the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon.

The official signing ceremony will be on Friday, 19 June in Switzerland.

We would like to thank the United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran for their commitment to finding a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We would also like to extend our sincere appreciation to our brothers in this mediation effort, the great leadership of State of Qatar, for their support in reaching this agreement. I would also especially thank the visionary leadership of Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and Republic of Türkiye for their immense contributions in this regard.

With the agreement now in place, mediators will facilitate a series of meetings this week. These pre-implementation discussions will lay the foundation for the technical talks and the official signing ceremony.

@realDonaldTrump
@JDVance
@SecRubio
@SteveWitkoff
@SEPeaceMissions
@drpezeshkian
@mb_ghalibaf
@araghchi

[Trita Parsi @tparsi]

It’s important to understand that, contrary to Donald Trump’s quip to Barak Ravid that Netanyahu has “no f***ing judgment,” the Israeli Prime Minister knows exactly what he is doing:

With a set of strikes at the Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut, he is trying to kill both the pending US-Iran peace deal and the fragile peace between Israel and Lebanon that would come with it.

There is a further strategic dividend. Netanyahu is also seeking to preempt Iran’s attempt to establish a new regional deterrence equation—one in which attacks on Beirut, and potentially on Lebanon more broadly, would trigger a direct Iranian response against Israel.

By striking now, he is not merely targeting an adversary; he is challenging the emergence of a regional order that would constrain Israel’s freedom of military action.

Full analysis on Substack: https://t.co/bbrXTFzE04

[ALUTHEDON @Mbakaza4L]

If it’s “pineapple belongs on a pizza” yes

If it’s “burning children alive is worth it so Jews can have an ethnostate” then no

[polen @polen_ball]

This literally shows workers doing all the work lol

[Nathan J Robinson @NathanJRobinson]

uh

[Clash Report @clashreport]

Hunter Biden on his father pardoning him:

He chose me over his legacy, because no matter what you say, that's going to be one of the first things written about him.

He chose me over his political legacy.

And that's how much my dad loves me.

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

MORE: An “open” strait under Iranian management is not a return to the pre-war status quo and would mean that Iran has accomplished a key war aim. ⬇️

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi discussed the strait at length and noted that it is under Iranian and Omani sovereignty and that both countries will collect fees after the MoU. Iran will also manage the strait. Araghchi rejected the term “tolls” but defended Iran charging “service“ fees for passage through the strait, which is effectively an attempt to rebrand Iran’s protection racket as legal administration. Araghchi added that Iran would provide safe passage through the strait for civilian vessels but create separate arrangements for military vessels.

This system of management is at odds with both US policy and long-established maritime legal precedent. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly said, for example, that the strait must be open with no fees or Iranian management. A US official told Reuters that the agreement would “open” the strait, but an “open” strait under Iranian management would be very detrimental to US interests, as ISW-CTP has previously argued in @brian_cartr's essay in the post below.

Iran also continues to use force in an attempt to impose the reality that it controls the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command (CENTCOM) reported on June 12 that US forces intercepted multiple Iranian drones targeting commercial vessels in the strait. Iranian media separately reported explosions near Qeshm and Sirik islands and said the sounds came from warning shots that Iranian forces fired to enforce control over the strait.

[Marco Foster @MarcoFoster_]

Hasan Piker: “Elon Musk is a fucking failure and yet in spite of his failures, because he happened to be at the right place at the right time, he has failed upwards with his endless wealth. He’s a horrible person, an unbelievably insecure person, and yet he’s the richest person on the planet. We know he doesn’t fucking work hard because he Tweets all the goddamn time”

[Drop Site @DropSiteNews]

A senior U.S. official told Reuters: “We believe we have reached an agreement with Iran. It is a solid agreement.”

[Adfikri Kevin Marvel @marvelkevin]

Individual brilliance by vini, some goal that

[Adfikri Kevin Marvel @marvelkevin]

I know it's something people say ad nauseam atp, but brazil's midfield is so exploitable

Plus kinda bereft of creativity

[Amir @AmirAminiMD]

I hope the Iranian leaders know what they’re doing - even if this deal, even if it’s only a temporary MOU, looks to be a huge success for Iran and a blow to the US/IS axis.

In my humble opinion, the US is not a real country -certainly not a sovereign one. It’s a mercenary state, an international brothel house, and the single most corrupt (and corrupted) entity in the history of the world. There’s nothing the American people at this point can do about it aside from a full-scale revolution, which is highly unlikely to succeed, because these people are willing to kill every single American to keep their donors happy and keep filling their own pockets.

Any agreement with a country under this much outside influence is more than just worthless - it would be reckless.

Because the problem is not Trump. It’s the entire whorehouse, including, and especially, the Democrats.

[Murtaza Hussain @MazMHussain]

Israeli diplomatic figures are reportedly alarmed at the details of the MOU between Iran and the U.S. full details of which still remain ambiguous. Trump's statement about Netanyahu not running for office again also triggered concern in an environment where the wars have not durably resolved any Israeli security challenges and new ones are allegedly on the horizon. I would expect Israeli threats and subversion targeting the American political system to increase in this context to try and ensure continued favorable conditions: https://t.co/qGcAAQePmh

[Brett Erickson @BrettErickson28]

As for likely Iranian oil sanction waivers that will be issued under the MOU if finalized:

Iran currently has 67M barrels of oil loaded onto vessels inside the U.S. blockade line. At a production rate average of ~1.7M barrels per day, that’s equivalent to 36 days of exports.

With the oil sanction waivers, we would likely only see a shift from discount to premium of ~$5/barrel. From a $1/barrel discount now, to a ~$4/barrel premium post waiver. However, it’s worth nothing that these waivers will also increase the sales price of the 80M barrels outside the blockade line as well.

Purely due to the sanction waivers, we would be looking at increased revenue flows PURELY due to the sanction waivers of (80M x $5) + (67M x $5) = $735M

When we look at the TOTAL value of the Iranian oil already loaded, we would need to assume a further drop in oil prices, but also be accounting for a +$4 premium to Brent.

Assuming Brent falls to ~$78/barrel on an MOU announcement, when we include the ~$4/barrel premium for Iranian to Brent, we would be looking at a rough sales price of $82/barrel.

$82 x 147M total loaded = $12.05B

While Iran would not be able to receive ~45.6% of these revenues due to the blockade if it remained in place, once it is lifted, Iran will IMMEDIATELY have $12B of oil in transit to buyers.

That alone is enough to ENTIRELY wipe out the economic pain they’ve endured from the U.S. blockade.

Once this MOU is announced…

Game over.

[Shaiel Ben-Ephraim @academic_la]

Netanyahu has decided to accept the Iranian deal. Security officials are despondent and see it as a disaster. Ynet brings some high level quotes from them:

1) A senior Israeli official said "Nobody is happy with this. We understand it is not good for us, and that it harms Israeli interests. What is troubling is that Israel cannot influence it. Its voice is not being heard."

2) The anger at Trump is palpable.: "Trump screwed us, we took the hit. We're no longer in the loop and can't really influence anything."

3) Israelis fear Iran will be economically revived: "They've blown money on the Iranians, who are getting everything they want. They'll build a missile corps, and we'll have to pour money into interceptors." Israel sees oil revenue flowing back into the exact capabilities the war was meant to degrade.

4) They don't believe a deal will adequately deal with the nuclear issue: "The real test of the deal is removing the uranium and destroying it. If that doesn't happen, the sense of a bad deal will turn into something more concrete."

5) They fear this will embolden Iran: "Iran has smelled that it can achieve things by force, and it will use that against its neighbors and against us."

6) The deepest worry is not military. It is perception. After months of direct fire, Iran is seen across the region as the side that took the pressure and did not fold: "the regional working assumption will be that it was signed under Iranian pressure and American capitulation, rather than the reverse."

Israel is concerned that Iran will be stronger, the US will be weaker and that the future for it will be bleak in the region. This war has been a disaster for Israel.