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Roland Garros π«π·
(3U) Berrettini ML @ 1.53 / -190
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Adding another 3 units onto Matteo Berrettini at some laughable odds but honestly I think this is a very fair price when you consider what I have to say.
I donβt want to bet on a game spread or set spread because whenever you get greedy karma really bites you in the ass so iβm willing to eat juice in this case for me risking 3 units ($900) still generates a reasonable return but if you want more value I of course recommend adding Coleman Wong like I did for the 1.5U play, the issue is Wong was -300 last night and he is now -500 so the odds will be slightly lower.
Look, to see Matteo Berrettini beat the fitness allegations is amazing, he comes through a tough five settor and then follows it up with a straight set win against a dangerous pusher in JM Cerundolo and the fact is Matteo Berrettini is at his best on grass but he can compete on all surfaces, he holds a 70% win percentage in clay, he has won big titles, he is 8-4 at Roland Garros and he has way more big stage experience than Matteo Arnaldi
Matteo Arnaldi is elite at retrieving balls and defensive play but the thing is Matteo Berrettiniβs power trumps that, you canβt get into these defensive grind fests when Berrettini is launching a kick serve at 200+ kmh at you and even if you do return it good luck dealing with the and one forehand. Of course there will be points Arnaldi will be able to extend rallies, force a error from Berrettini or expose his movement but like I said the serve and forehand is bread and butter, if it doesnβt work in one point, Berrettini will just do it again and again till it does.
Then you have to consider Matteo Arnaldi is incapable of winning free points like Berrettini. I think Arnaldiβs serve is his weak point and Matteo can scorch it if he plays aggressively on return like he usually does. Arnaldi isnβt a natural clay courter either, his game just clicks on the surface because of his defence.
If Matteo Arnaldi can turn the majority of points into long rallies its obviously going to swing the pendulum in his favour massively but I just donβt see that happening when Berrettini has such a huge power and experience advantage. He has the serve, he can approach the net better, mix in the serve and volley, has the power behind his forehand and the topspin to dictate and all Arnaldi can do is try and expose his movement or weaker backhand, which if he does, kudos to him.