Massimiliano Imparato

Sports Betting = Risk Taking:

• Largest Edge
• Lowest Odds
• Highest Volume
• Smallest Drawdown

Solid Mindset makes you survive.
Sound Stake makes you thrive.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Sports betting is the hardest way to make an easy living.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@royal_wetten @bet_2_invest @Llou1007 Why not continue on bet2invest while keeping your picks private? What if you or other people are no longer satisfied and your ways part? You'll still have a track record for future endeavours.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@GoshawkTrades Drawdown is the frame, not the strategy.

Zoom Out.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

The Most Important Skill for Value Betting is Judgement.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Your betting edge is not in chasing the smartest plays,
but in avoiding the stupidest ones.

[Andrew Mack @Gingfacekillah]

This is correct. The other pertinent nuance is that CLV tells you that others are aware of what you know (model inputs, etc.) but are slower to get to market for a handful of reasons. You're correct in a way that's not novel and I think that's important to understand.

If you found a signal that nobody else had found - it would theoretically print $$ while providing zero CLV. @PlusEVAnalytics has mentioned this before, H/T is in order.

Anyways, CLV is a useful tool but it's market and context dependent.

Have a great weekend 🫡

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Squares see tremendous value in many things they don't know the price of.

Sharps see tremendous value in a few things they know the price of.

Just because everyone is looking at the same odds doesn't mean everyone is betting with the same efficiency.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@bet_2_invest @spix_cycling Comme un vrai grimpeur!

[Bet2Invest @Bet2invest_EN]

Our cycling specialist 🚴‍♂️, @spix_cycling 🇫🇷, has made a great start to the #TDF2024 with a ROI of 23% over the first 10 days, but is just as effective all year round !
Stay tuned here:
👉https://t.co/k345N9skuE
#TourDeFrance #TourDeFrance2024 #bettingtips #bettingexpert #bettingtipster

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@Bet2invest_EN @spix_cycling A cycling tipster who rides as a specialist climber.

Not bad!

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@FerrisB_86 @Matthew_Trench Not all Sharps:

- bet the same Value
- have infinite money to bet on the same Value
- bet on Value even outside their models
- can fade the public in the last hours
- can take risks on longer Value odds

Being the Closing Line is a way to hide edges nobody else has (yet?) found.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Sports Betting is hard because a bad quarter feels longer than a good year.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@TradingComposur For anyone, a missed trade is gut-wrenching.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@GoshawkTrades I tend to follow my Contrarian Trend.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@BasketPronostic Mens Sana in Corpore Sano

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Even Professional Bettors are wrong.

Don't beat yourself up too much over your mistakes.

You will only be as successful as your ability to overcome the urge to chase losses.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Beyond the Odds, you need the Gods.

Odds are what you bet, Gods are what you beg.

[Elihu D Feustel @d_feustel]

Out today on Kindle, and in print/Google Play in a few days. https://t.co/W8KBJm3PKK

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

@d_feustel Beyond the Odds, you need the Gods.

Odds are what you lay, Gods are what you pray.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Most Popular Football Betting Markets

• Under/Over
• Strong Favourites
• Weak Underdogs
• Both Teams to Score

Do you play the games everyone else is playing?

You find more favourable odds by avoiding crowds on the highway.

The secret is weak competition.

[Barry Ritholtz @Ritholtz]

To beat the market, you need the ability to identify the 2% of winners that drive gains, a severe allergy to big losers, near-perfect behavior, a reckless disregard for your own career, and a whole lot of good luck. The odds are stacked high against you.

@jasonzweigwsj explains how its going this year:

"Stock pickers are doing even worse than usual. In the first half of 2024, according to Morningstar, only 18.2% of actively managed mutual funds and exchange-traded funds that compare themselves to the S&P 500 managed to outperform it."

https://t.co/7GeFxKhAMJ

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Absolutely, yes.

Even the task counts.

https://t.co/JcYcbHGq1g

[Peter Mallouk @PeterMallouk]

@morganhousel @robkhenderson I think that depends on the field pursued.

[Massimiliano Imparato @massimparato]

Don't try this with Sports Betting.

Overconfidence → OverBetting → Overstaking

Game Over

[Morgan Housel @morganhousel]

@robkhenderson I bet mediocre intelligence with high confidence will outperform high intelligence with mediocre confidence.