It’s like the DNC talking points went out this AM and every economically illiterate politician is our rabble rousing and blaming poverty caused in part by government ineptitude in operating schools on innovators. Brad I disagree with you on one point—Ro is not smart.
Friday's selloff got all the attention.
Today's close was more important.
After one of the sharpest declines we've seen in months, the question wasn't whether stocks could bounce. Markets often bounce after big down days.
The question was whether they could hold.
That's the distinction most investors miss.
Throughout today's session I wasn't focused on headlines, earnings, or analyst upgrades. I was focused on one level: Friday's lows. If those broke, the correction likely had further to run.
If they held, the odds increase that Friday was simply a violent reset inside an ongoing bull market.
By the closing bell, we had our first clue.
The market passed its initial test. That doesn't mean the correction is over. It doesn't mean new highs are next. It simply means buyers showed up where they needed to.
Inside today's Portfolio Update, I break down:
• Why Friday's lows mattered more than today's gains
• The surprising weakness showing up in several Magnificent Seven names
• What Reddit's reaction after missing S&P 500 inclusion may be telling us
• Why Apple's latest AI announcement received such a lukewarm response from investors
• The single question I'm watching most closely heading into CPI, Oracle earnings, and SpaceX pricing
The story didn't change.
But the market may have just told us something important about the road ahead.
https://t.co/jDR0qKfsuf
$NVDA is the "safe short." Same framing preceded Amazon's and Google's breakouts.
Dan Loeb, Third Point ($30B AUM), on @theallinpod: the stock's persistent discount isn't a fundamental ceiling. It's crowded short mechanics.
Long/short pods must carry a short book. At $5 trillion, $NVDA is the obvious answer - large enough to absorb notional, with a long run that gives narrative cover. That structural pressure is what suppresses the stock.
Loeb's call: undervalued on 2-3 year forward earnings. When fundamentals force a re-rate, the short unwind will be faster than a fundamental re-rate alone.
Google was a "safe short." Amazon was a "safe short." Both broke out.
Full NVIDIA analysis + homebuilder short:
https://t.co/PD4fBjBDUa
Source: All-In Podcast - https://t.co/7OPUSYNIvz
After a 9-week rally, the market finally demanded some maintenance.
We raised cash.
We cut losers.
We trimmed winners.
We honored stops.
That's not bearish.
That's portfolio management.
The goal isn't maximizing every dollar of upside.
The goal is staying in the race.
For the last two years, AI meant semiconductors.
This morning the market is asking a different question:
What if the next winners are the applications built on top?
Software has now been bid for four straight sessions following Nvidia's COMPUTEX commentary.
Oil is rising.
Yields are firm.
Geopolitics remains messy.
Yet capital continues moving deeper into the AI ecosystem.
The story didn't change.
The lane did.
Full Daily Drive out now complimentary to all.
https://t.co/c3YFo46kMJ
"It's 1992 not 1999. AI is so much bigger than the internet."
As $ARM surges once again - now comfortably the biggest UK company ($375bn mkt cap) - resharing this compelling conversation we had with CEO @ReneHaas237 from January on The Master Investor Podcast. The stock has more than trebled since then!
SHIFT TO CPUs v GPUs: "When we look at the trajectory of the CPU in the data centre, we have a very, very good sense that's just going to continue to increase."
CHINA: "The US actually has a lot of energy. But one thing China is much better at the US is building things really fast and moving through a lot of red tape. They just decide to build it and then it's done."
UK: Has fantastic talent, but..."there definitely is less appetite for risk and maybe that comes from less of an appetite for failing."
HYPERSCALERS: “Scale matters. I think one thing that may be a little different this time is that the past winners may still be the next set of winners just because of the size of their scale.”
Timestamps:
0:00 - Intro
3:10 - The most important company in the UK
4:30 - What exactly does @Arm do?
7:25 - The origins of Arm - Innovation
9:38 - UK as a home for innovative talent
11:04 - What UK lacks - appetite for risk
13:21 - The pros & cons of Arm’s revenue model
16:26 - Will Arm design chips from start to finish themselves?
17:39 - Balancing relationships with likes of OpenAI v Nvidia $NVDA v Apple $AAPL v Microsoft $MSFT
19:55 - Who is the greatest innovator alive today?
21:40 - The critical role Arm played in the iPhone
24:12 - The coming shift from GPUs to CPUs; & more AI done locally vs in data centres
27:21 - Is AI trade over done?
30:50 - It’s only 1992: “AI is so much bigger than the internet”
33:46 - China vs US
36:18 - Big believe in open markets
37:56 - Scale matters
39:15 - How do you inspire repeat innovation?
40:51 - Underinvestment in semiconductors for decades
42:18 - Importance of great communication
44:10 - Advice for young people in this new world
The software bid which essentially started 4 sessions ago looks to me like insititutiuonal accumulation rather than extended retail trading. $RDDT $NOW $PLTR $APP.
The market isn't abandoning AI. It's broadening.
For months, nearly all traffic flowed through the same crowded lanes.
Now we're seeing new sectors attracting capital.
The road is still open. The market is just calculating a new route.
Today's Portfolio Update 👇
https://t.co/1CV6zNztAn
🚨 | Luca Cordero di Montezemolo on the new Ferrari Luce:
"If I said what I really think, I'd harm Ferrari. We're risking the destruction of a myth, I'm very sorry about that. I hope they at least remove the Prancing Horse from that car"
The rally is back on.
AI infrastructure, satellites, semis, nuclear, power are all ripping higher again.
But oil is rebounding, missiles are still flying around Hormuz, and the SpaceX sympathy trade is getting crowded fast
The road still looks open. It's just that the smoke on the horizon never disappeared.
Today’s Daily Drive 👇
https://t.co/z2gHQ4UEk8
Been living in New York City for around five years now.
Yes, it’s expensive, taxes are high, and there are some interesting characters walking around. Those are some of the costs.
Here’s what we get:
Access to the best restaurants in America, no matter what type of food you’re in the mood for.
Everything our family needs is just a short walk away.
You constantly get to see friends in person, as they’re always passing through.
Some of the best public and private schools in America.
The network you build here, just by going about your day-to-day life, is incredible. You run into some of the most interesting people doing the most amazing things at the highest level.
Access to the best doctors in the world.
The career opportunities here are immense, no matter what you do.
Central Park – my go-to spot – never gets old.
If you’re a shopper, there’s nowhere better in America.
If you’re an entrepreneur, this city forces you to think bigger on a daily basis.
Broadway, sports, concerts, comedy – the highest level of entertainment, right in your backyard.
The subway. Yes, the subway – and yes, millions of normal people take it every day – gets you around this place like a time machine.
It’s a wonderful place to raise kids. Every kids' activity you can think of is just blocks away. Our son loves the Natural History Museum, and endless playdates are available either in our building or within a three-minute walk.
Maybe all those folks who can afford to live anywhere in the world but choose to raise their families here aren’t so crazy after all.