Matty G

Let the games begin

[0xDipper @Dipper_pol]

Nassim Taleb sat down with Daniel Kahneman - two of the sharpest minds on risk ever - and the takeaway was blunt: stop trying to be smart

Kahneman's prospect theory explains why almost nobody can do what Taleb does

We're wired to hate the steady trickle of small losses his strategy needs - even when one huge win more than pays for all of them

So you structure it the other way: tiny safe bets plus a few wild ones, never the comfortable middle.

"You'd rather be antifragile than intelligent - any time."

"Trial and error is really just trial with small error."

"Make your gains in small bites. Take your losses all at once."

~1 hr, free. two legends on risk, prediction, and how to win without forecasting ↓

[Alex Barnicoat @AlexBarnicoat_]

China has been BOMBED, and 5 Chinese Civilians have been KILLED, and China wants WAR...

[Joe Rogan Podcast News @joeroganhq]

Joe Rogan: "Wanna hear another conspiracy theory, that you probably don't know that's gonna blow your mind?"

[Wide Awake Media @wideawake_media]

Tucker Carlson: "I'm not mad at Putin, never have been."

German MSM journalist: "I am."

Tucker Carlson: "You should be mad at your own leaders... Putin didn't let in millions of immigrants."

"I think what we're being trained to do, and you clearly are the victim of this... is to channel people's frustration into directions that serve the people who caused the frustration in the first place."

"Your country's a mess because your leaders suck. That's the fact. You're mad about that. So they take your anger and they're like, oh no, it's Putin's fault. It's Putin's fault."

[Darshak Rana ⚡️ @thedarshakrana]

CHILLING 🚨 :

The Matrix isn't fiction.

The "Reality" of universe follows 18 rules.

I've collected PROOF from science, nature, and history.

A VISUAL THREAD on what's real: 🧵

[Matty G @mat_gial]

@elonmusk Make Greece great again

[Afshin Rattansi @afshinrattansi]

VLADIMIR PUTIN🇷🇺:

‘They invented that Russia wants to attack NATO. Have you completely lost your minds? Dumb as this table? It’s nonsense. Utter rubbish.’

‘It would be rubbish if it wasn’t a plan just to trick their own population by saying ‘Help! Russia is going to attack soon, we must arm ourselves urgently, send weapons to an Ukraine.’ In reality it is done to preserve their own imperial standing and might.’

‘Look at NATO’s potential and Russia’s potential, did you decide we’re crazy or something?’

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

This is an absolute must-read by Singaporean diplomat @mahbubani_k who proposes a path forward for Europe: https://t.co/cY3MOtewnt

First of all, he argues that "Brussels has slavishly followed Washington for too long" and that European leaders have become so pathetic that "they are licking the boots that are kicking them in the face."

He says that it is shocking, and even a display of "infantile strategic thinking", that "Europeans didn’t anticipate the quagmire they’re in". They based "all European strategic thinking on the best-case scenario of the United States being a totally reliable ally", despite the US's proven history of being anything but.

To him, "the only way to restore Europe’s geopolitical standing is to consider three unthinkable options":

1) "Europe should announce its willingness to quit NATO"

He argues that "a Europe that is forced to spend 5 percent on defense is a Europe that doesn’t need the United States", given that this "amounts to $1.1 trillion", which is more than the U.S.'s own defense spending.

This is exactly right: why exactly would Europe remain under subservience to the U.S. if it increases its military budget, as Trump wishes it to? And also, why would it spend this budget on U.S. equipment when it can use it to prop up its own economy? It makes no sense.

2) "Work out a new grand strategic bargain with Russia"

He dismisses the false notion that "Russia represents a real security threat to the EU countries" and effectively proposes to out-Trump Trump: why let him work out a grand strategic bargain at the expense of Europe, when Europe can negotiate "fair compromise with [Russia], respecting current borders between Russia and the EU and a realistic compromise on Ukraine that doesn’t threaten either side’s core interests"?

If a grand bargain is on the cards, Europe has evidently much more to lose by letting Trump negotiate it. And much more to gain by negotiating it themselves too: after all Russia is their neighbor, not the U.S.'s...

3) "Work out a new strategic compact with China"

Mahbubani writes that when push comes to shove the only reason for the downturn in EU-China relations is because "the Europeans foolishly believed that a slavish loyalty to American geopolitical priorities would lead to rich geopolitical dividends for them." But instead "they have been kicked in the face."

He also points out that "China can help the EU deal with its real long-term geopolitical nightmare: the demographic explosion in Africa." And that "unless Africa develops its economies, there will be a surge of African migrants into Europe." As such "Europeans should welcome any foreign investment in Africa that creates jobs" and not, as they're currently doing "shooting themselves in the foot by criticizing and opposing China’s investment in Africa" (which he says "demonstrates how naive long-term European strategic thinking has become").

To conclude he reiterates that "Brussels is sacrificing its own strategic interests to serve American interests in the hope that geopolitical subservience would lead to rewards", but "clearly, it hasn’t."

Europe should draw the right lessons and "carry out the currently unthinkable option: Declare that henceforth it will be a strategically autonomous actor on the world stage that will put its own interests first. Trump may finally show some respect for Europe if it does that."

Nothing to add, he nails it!

[Jacque Line🇵🇭 @MissJacque_line]

How to be a NATO clown, you must be a useful idiots.

[Maria Denaxa @mdenaxa]

Η φανταστική ρωσική απειλή κατά της Ευρώπης, έχει εναν και μοναδικό σκοπό. Να αποδεχτούν ευκολότερα οι ευρωπαίοι πολίτες το αστρονομικό ποσό του κοινού δανεισμού 🤑 για την ευρωπαϊκή αμυνα, που θα συνοδεύεται ενδεχομένως απο μια νέα συνθήκη που θα μεταφέρει οτι εχει απομείνει απο την κυριαρχία των κρατών στο έκτρωμα που λέγεται ΕΕ.

[WikiLeaks @wikileaks]

"Stopped! It doesn't matter if you had a contract!.. Had another million dollars to go! The money just stopped!"
British politician and former MI6 officer Rory Stewart (son of MI6 #2 Brian Stewart) complains to Iraq war spin master Alistair Campbell that USAID stopped sending the latest installment ($1m) of the more than $10m already sent to his wife's Afghanistan "arts and crafts" foundation Turquoise Mountain.
The foundation was set up after the invasion of Afghanistan, by Rory Stewart, King (then Prince) Charles, and the US occupation President, Hamid Karzai (who was paid millions in cash by the CIA).
It is unclear what role the foundation plays in Afghanistan after the Taliban regained control of the country in 2021.

[Nature is Amazing ☘️ @AMAZlNGNATURE]

Orcas breaching in rough seas, photo taken from a sword fishing boat off the coast of Nova Scotia

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Rogan is right

[The Culturist @the_culturist_]

Ancient Greek thinkers like Socrates and Plato hated democratic elections.

They saw democracy as part of an endless cycle of regimes — destined to slip into mob rule.

But Polybius knew how to break the cycle... (thread) 🧵

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Great hat

[Dr. Anastasia Maria Loupis @DrLoupis]

BREAKING🚨

Initial reports confirm the assassination of Israeli Army Chief of Staff, Herzi Halevi.

[Rory Johnston @Rory_Johnston]

Immensely detailed Middle East oil asset map and infographic from @SPGCI.

[Dr Andreas Krieg @andreas_krieg]

For nearly two decades, I have been telling Arabs that their concern over the "Greater Israel" narrative is unfounded

What are you going to tell them now when these radicals are in the government?!

[Glenn Diesen @Glenn_Diesen]

Former CIA Chief of Russia Analysis, George Beebe:
- Russia and much of the world do not accept the "rules-based international order" in which the US dictate the rules and selectively decides when they are applied
- Putin is rational and wants normal diplomatic ties with NATO

[Sony Thăng @nxt888]

🇰🇵KIM JONG UN:

"To be honest, we have no intention of attacking the Republic of Korea.

Thinking of it is abominable, and we hate dealing with those in it.

Formerly, we often spoke about liberating the south and reunification by force of arms, but now we are not interested in it.

And since our statement about two separate states, we have been all the more unwilling to be conscious of the state in the south.

However, the point is that the latter provokes us now and then.

We must keep close watch on the recent developments around our country.

Deeply engrossed in their preposterous schemes to 'contain' the non-existent threat against them, the U.S. imperialists and their puppets have converted the ROK-U.S. alliance into a nuclear-based one, and they are growing frantic in their arms build-up.

Their desperate clamour for war and provocations threaten to disrupt the balance of strength on the Korean peninsula at any moment.

Their expansion of armaments and military actions are justifiable and self-defensive, whereas our responses are threats and provocations–this is the U.S. imperialists’ and their stooges’ way of thinking, an illogical and perverted approach that is tantamount to that of the thief crying 'Stop thief!'

In other words, it is a robber’s logic, namely the problem is not what is being done, but who is doing it.

We do not recognize it, and such far-fetched sophism of the enemy can never check our strength from growing.

The disturbed balance of strategic strength on the Korean peninsula precisely means the outbreak of war.

Therefore, the logic on the self-reliant defence building, the logic that we should possess physical strength with which to always contain the enemy and control the situation is absolutely open and above board.

Our progress towards a military superpower, a nuclear power, will grow faster.

Now that the ROK-U.S. military alliance has completely changed into a nuclear alliance as the puppets advertise themselves, the preparedness of our state for nuclear counteractions should be further perfected on the high level defying limits.

By the way, I would like to mention that on October 4 a spokesman for the UN secretary general asked us to lower the rhetoric.

I am not sure that such a request was also conveyed to Seoul, but I would take this opportunity to stress once again that the international community should have a proper understanding of my remarks.

I have clearly and consistently put a precondition of the word 'if' whenever I clarified our stand on the use of military strength.

Under the precondition of 'if,' our Constitution will issue a strict order to our armed forces.

If the enemy attempt to have recourse to arms against our state, the armed forces of our Republic will use all the strike capabilities without hesitation.

They will not rule out the use of nuclear weapons.

I stress once again: Pinning hopes for survival in such a situation is useless and no fortune or alleged guardianship of God can protect the ROK.

This is not an issue related to rhetoric as mentioned by the UN, but it is exactly a warning of action.

Confronting us are the largest nuclear power in the world and the most vicious of its puppets attempting to fool with its nukes.

Under such circumstances our view, option and resolve can never be changed.

The enemy should refrain from acting rashly.

They should never slight our warning that if they misunderstand it as something like their worn-out, half-baked bluff, they would pay more dearly for it.

The absolute strength we have possessed at present is discharging in a responsible manner the mission of deterring a war and defending peace.

No forces will dare opt for the use of military strength against the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, a military conflict.

However, the more desperately the enemy try to hold supremacy by dint of the 'nuclear alliance' and reverse the strategic situation, the more steadily we should make a leap forward in defence science and industry and the more firmly we should consolidate our war deterrent for self-defence.

Our Party and the government of our Republic will never tolerate the balance of strength being disturbed on the Korean peninsula.

We should neutralize the imperialists’ adventurist military acts of aggressive nature by dint of the absolute superiority of the strength of the Juche-oriented defence science and technology.

Nothing will overwhelm the strength of the Juche-type weapons loaded with the might of the revolutionary ideas and the do-or-die resistance spirit, and we, based on this strength, should create a new world, in which war, hegemony and injustice shall not be allowed."