You might remember my Bodo/Glimt saves shout last season, I think it's worth looking into them again tonight.
Bayern are huge favourites at odds of 1.06 to win and the bookies expect them to have around 9 shots on target tonight. I think a lot will be saved because Bodo have a top keeper in Nikita Haikin.
Top keeper probably doesn't do him justice. He made more saves than every other goalkeeper to feature in the Champions League last season, making 68 saves compared to Thibaut Courtois' next best of 53.
Haikin's average worked out at a large 5.45 saves per 90 minutes. That's around the line I'd be looking at tonight. Five saves looks solid, and if it's within your budget, you could look at even higher lines.
Bodo played eight times away from home in the UCL last season:
• 9 saves v Sporting
• 4 saves v Inter
• 7 saves v Atletico
• 7 saves v Dortmund
• 8 saves v Galatasaray
• 8 saves v Slavia Prague
• 6 saves v Sturm Graz
Bodo do most of their damage at home for obvious reasons (Although they did have giant killings at Atletico & Inter last time out). Away from home, at a huge stadium like the Allianz, they will face an onslaught for 90 minutes.
The likes of Harry Kane, Michael Olise and Luis Diaz are expected to start.
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Mateo Busquets Ferrer, remember the name, he's the ref for Celta Vigo v Athletic Bilbao tonight.
He gave out the most yellow cards in La Liga last season (105), and also has the best yellow cards per game average (5.53).
To say he's strict is an understatement, he's also given out six red cards, working out at 0.32 per game.
When looking purely at average cards per game last season, he gave out 5.85 cards per game.
Obviously it's not just the referee that impacts how many cards a game has, it just shows how easy they may give them out, so I looked into Celta Vigo and Athletic Bilbao.
Despite playing just two games so far this season, both sides have already received a red card.
In Athletic Bilbaos most recent league game, they received three cards, with eight match cards in total. They've received 2+ cards in both games so far.
As for Celta Vigo, they received three cards in their last game, with 5 match cards. The most recent head to head had four cards, and the time before had five.
The main standout for me for a card is probably Aleix Febas, he's received 10 cards in both of his last two seasons, at Elche.
He's only started one of their games so far, yet committed five fouls, fair to say he's a bit of a f*cker. He should be up against Sancet, the most fouled player so far this season for Athletic Bilbao (2.00 per90).
Tbh his foul prices are pretty mad too, he's 2.10 to commit 2+ fouls which feels a big price.
His usual average does have him sitting less than a foul per game, but when up against a player like Sancet who has been winning fouls, I'd be more sold on him.
So, in short, it's worth looking at:
• Team and match cards, maybe a punt on a red.
• Aleix Febas for fouls and/or a card.
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