Most People Use Liquidation Maps Wrong. Stop It.
They treat a single model and timeframe as gospel, as if the brightest yellow line means price is guaranteed to go there next.
That is not what a liquidation map is.
A liquidation map is an algorithmic estimate of where liquidations may be clustered based on price, leverage, open interest, and model assumptions. It is not a crystal ball. It is not based on a live aggregate of actual liquidation price of actual open trades.
It is simply one data point.
An important one - but still only one.
As with most of trading, the real alpha comes from confluence.
For example, if I am trying to understand where BTC may move over the next couple of days, I am not just opening one heatmap and calling it a day.
I want to see Model 1 on the 12 hour chart to understand the immediate high-leverage battlefield.
Then I want Model 1 on the 24 hour chart because that is usually the cleanest short-term anchor.
Then I want Model 1 on the 3 day chart to see whether the same levels are still meaningful on a slightly longer time horizon.
Then I want Model 2 on the 3 day chart to check whether the broader liquidation structure agrees with what Model 1 is showing.
If multiple models and timeframes keep pointing toward the same BTC zone, now we may have something.
Still not a guarantee. Confluence.
Confluence is a traders friend.
A bright liquidation band by itself can be noise. A bright liquidation band that lines up across models, timeframes, market structure, open interest, funding, order book behavior, and price action becomes a much stronger signal.
And yes, this is the annoying part:
Even after doing all of that work, it is still not a guarantee of price direction.
BTC can still ignore the obvious level. It can sweep the opposite side first. It can bait everyone into the obvious trade and then reverse violently because the obvious trade often serves as bait.
But that is the entire point.
The work is not about finding certainty.
The work is about filtering signal from noise.
If you struggle visually finding confluence across several different visual maps, this is one area where an AI companion can actually be useful.
Not to blindly tell you what to trade, that would be dumb.
To help you crunch multiple screenshots, compare models, identify overlapping zones, and ask better questions.
A simple prompt could be:
“I am using BTC liquidation heatmaps to analyze short-term price movement over the next 0-3 days. Compare these screenshots across models and timeframes. Identify the major liquidation zones above and below current price, tell me which zones have the strongest confluence, explain whether the setup favors an upside sweep, downside sweep, or trap on both sides, and make clear what would invalidate the assumption”
Why am I suggesting to use AI to analyze images even though I know some people will mock it? Because AI can spot things with a higher accuracy and speed than our minds can. Remember the old game "Where's Waldo?" Who do you think win's the race to accurately find Waldo amongst a bunch of noise between a human or a machine?
Liquidation maps are useful when you stop thinking about them as prophecy and start thinking about them like a map of potential pain.
Ask better questions and you'll typically learn better answers.
Instead of asking "where does the heatmap say price is going next?" ask "Where is the nearest vulnerable leverage? Which side would create more forced buying or forced selling? Do multiple models and timeframes agree? Does price action confirm the idea or reject it?"
That is how you use liquidation maps like a trader instead of chasing glowing lines like a moth to the flame.
🫡 From the depths —
The White Whale 🐋
You will help more people by trying to make money than you will by staying broke.
When you insist on “impact” you only virtue signal because learning the game is harder than saying you’re “choosing to make less to help people”.
You’re not helping more people. You’re just less skilled with an ego that prevents you from admitting it.
Many of you seem to be interested in oral sex.
As your unc, let’s make sure you do it safely.
Protocol below.
Have fun licking, friends.
[Before oral sex]
+ Get tested. List below
+ Get vaccinated. List below
+ Wash hands
+ Brush & floss 60 min before
+ Avoid cleaning teeth right before
+ Avoid mouthwash
+ No active cold sores or ulcers
+ No gum bleeding
+ No fresh dental work
+ No recent oral piercing
+ Trim fingernails
+ Check genitals for infection
+ Learn your partner’s protocol
[During oral sex]
+ Avoid anal to vaginal transitions
+ If not tested or vaccinated: dental dam (vaginal oral sex) and condom (penile oral sex).
+ Avoid ejaculation in mouth if STI status isn't fully cleared.
[After oral sex]
+ Rinse mouth with water
+ Wait 30 min before brushing teeth
+ Monitor symptoms
+ Get retested
+ Abstain until test results return
[Tests, male + female]
+ HIV
+ Syphilis
+ Hepatitis B
+ Hepatitis C
+ Gonorrhea
+ Chlamydia
+ HSV-1
+ HSV-2
[Tests, female specific]
+ Cervical screening (Pap / HPV)
+ Trichomonas (NAAT test)
+ Vaginal pH
+ Bacterial vaginosis panel (vaginal microbiome)
[Vaccinations]
+ HPV (9-valent)
+ Hepatitis B
+ Hepatitis A
HPV-related mouth and throat cancer is now more common than cervical cancer in the US. Cases roughly tripled from 2000 to 2017, and oral sex is the main way it spreads. About 80 million Americans currently have HPV.
Take care of yourself and your loved ones by getting tested.
Sento dire spesso: «ma se non hai nulla da nascondere, perché ti preoccupi?». Rispondo sempre uguale: la privacy non serve a nascondere, serve a esistere. Nessuno mette una porta in bagno perché dentro succedono crimini. La metti perché alcune cose sono tue, e basta. Chi confonde trasparenza con sorveglianza non ha capito né l'una né l'altra.
Müllentsorgung in INDIEN❗️
INDIEN: 1,4 Mrd. Einwohner
DEUTSCHLAND: 84 Mio Ew.
Deutschland rettet weiter die Welt mit KI-Kontrollen bei Bio-Mülltonnen, Papierhalmen und kindersicheren Plastikverschlüssen.
Parabolic Shorts: One of the toughest setups to trade.
Here are Ariel’s 10+ attempts at shortig $CAR
Notes:
1. You don’t have to get it right in one go. In fact, that’s nearly impossible.
2. All you have to do is wait for your setup and then manage risk: See how most losses are small.
3. Not every unsuccessful short has to be a loss: If risk is managed well then even unsuccessful attempts can yield some profits. This also in turn nets off a few small losses thereby helping you keep the big profit all yourself.
4. Ego has to be murdered as soon as possible: Notice how he mentions that he stopped being stubborn after the first few attempts, and how those exact attempts are comparably bigger losses (-$119k and -$89k)
Now compare that to the win: $1.5 Million
Finally, for the last time!! Parabolic shorts are not betting against the trend. It is trying to catch the end of a euphoric/parabolic move.
Easier said than done though. 😉
My Alzheimer's thread hit 604,000 views this weekend. Bill Ackman shared it. Doctors debated it. People sent it to their cardiologists.
But a lot of people asked me the same question. Show me the data.
Here it is.
Alzheimer's deaths, Type 2 Diabetes, and obesity. All indexed to 1960.
Alzheimer's deaths have exploded 134x.
Type 2 Diabetes. 8x.
Obesity. 3.2x.
Same timeline. Same inflection point. Same curve.
This is not genetics. Genetics do not change in 60 years. This is a man-made disease. The chart is the proof.
THE "CONSISTENTLY PROFITABLE" SKILL GAP & THE MYTH OF SUPPLEMENTAL INCOME FROM TRADING
For many new traders or part-time traders, there is this pervasive belief that with some time and effort, they'll be able to make "just" a few grand per month to supplement their income. Or they "don't want to aim big, they just want to replace their current salary via trading so they can have more freedom."
This is because people mistakenly believe that trading is like most other jobs, rather than it being a winner-take-all performance endeavor more akin to becoming a professional athlete.
99.9% of athletes will never make a dime professionally. There is no market demand for your average high school or college player. To even make league minimum in the NBA, you are still in the .0001% of basketball players. There is no such thing as just deciding to casually make a few grand as a pro athlete.
Think about what it takes for someone to make $50k/yr as a golfer? The skill gap to earn an income or make the league minimum is crazy to comprehend. The analogy I gave with @AT09_Trader was the story of Brian Scalabrine.
Even though Brian Scalabrine “sucked” in the NBA, he would absolutely annihilate 99.9% of the people calling him trash. He once said the famous line that he’s closer in skill to LeBron James than his haters are to him, and that line perfectly explains trading. The gap between unprofitable and elite looks massive from the outside, but the real canyon is between unprofitable and making any amount of money consistently.
People look at a trader making $1M a year and think that’s a different species. They assume someone doing $100k a year is basically the same as the guy still blowing accounts, just with better luck. That’s like saying Scalabrine and your friend who plays pickup on Tuesdays are basically equal because neither is LeBron.
Going from $0 to consistently profitable is the hardest jump in trading. You CANNOT just casually make a few grand per month or supplement income part-time. The skill level needed to consistently make ANY AMOUNT trading is the equivalent of being in the league.
A trader who can pull $100k a year out of the market is not “kind of good.” They have competency in finding edge, executing trades, handling their psychology and risk management, and are competing in the league. From there, scaling to $300k, $500k, even $1M is usually a function of size, capital, and refinement, not a complete identity shift.
But the trader still stuck at breakeven or red? They’re not one tweak away from $100k. They’re not “basically there.” They’re still trying to prove they belong on the court at all.
The uncomfortable truth is this: the distance between $0 and $100k is far greater than the distance between $100k and $1M. One requires becoming a professional. The other simply just requires becoming a more refined one.
My confidence in taking a trader from $100k to $1m is probably 10x higher than my confidence in taking a trader from $0 to $100k.
Being as candid as possible, quit trading. Trading pays for talent, intelligence, determination, and work ethic. So do a million other paths, and the barrier to success in those is meaningfully lower. Why choose one of the most difficult arenas? It does not make sense.
To go a step further, look at the quality of the industry compared to others. Trading has a disproportionate amount of garbage people in it, and that environment matters more than people admit.
After stepping away, my life improved tenfold. I will take the money, but I genuinely regret starting trading in the first place. I could have made 5x the money elsewhere in the same amount of time.
If you are good at trading, you are excellent at other things I can almost guarantee that. You should be passionate about making money, not trading.
GEOPOLITICAL RISK IS THE HARDEST RISK TO TRADE
IMO, traders have discounted the Iran situation bc nearly all conflicts resolve without crazy escalations. The world is incentivized towards peace.
It’s a REALLY good heuristic. Genuinely it is the right heuristic, MOST of the time!
In fact, that is why for almost a decade I’ve faded geopolitical risk premium as described in this video (https://t.co/gReTd9yV86)
The issue is… this situation is different and in a complex world w complex players, crazy stuff can and inevitably does happen.
I’ve said so from day one. This situation is different bc an irreplaceable amount of oil production has been shut-in while two sides remain diametrically opposed.
For Trump: it is a nonstarter that Iran has any uranium enrichment or a path to nuclear weapons.
For Iran: it is a nonstarter that Iran does NOT have a uranium enrichment program.
BOTH countries view their stance as an EXISTENTIAL position.
For over a month now, I’ve read takes that this will be over ASAP and that it’s de-escalating. I’m not an expert. But neither are these people.
The experts like @kpler and @EnergyAspects are still freaking out at the amount of energy that is shut-in and are skeptical of how this resolves.
The reason why most on Twitter aren’t freaking out is bc most on here are looking at the S&P500 while living in America or an energy-secure nation.
Huge chunks of the world are ALREADY in a full-blown energy crisis that is already resulting in starvation and death. That sounds hyperbolic, but it’s not. It’s hyperbolic bc you reading this are financially secure when most of the world isn’t.
Meanwhile, escalation from here is still always possible (see today’s weekly Sunday morning Truml tweet full of insanity).
Yes, by some miracle, one side might fold.
But the main point of this post is to say: “yea, but maybe not and meanwhile every day that passes is catastrophic to huge portions of the global population.”
With geopol risk, heuristics are just that… a good rule of thumb that you can use as a guide but not a predictive tool.
Amica maestra di terza elementare si sta sfogando.
Metà classe, indiani, non parla l’italiano e passano le giornate scolastiche, da 3 anni, a colorare disegni.
Nati qua, neanche i genitori parlano italiano.
Vanno tutti sbattuti fuori a calci il prima possibile.
#REMIGRAZIONE