Newbies and inexperienced traders/investors are so fixated on predictions that they have no idea what to do when the 50% of cases where they're wrong shows up.
“But you said it was going to do #A and it didn’t.”
Well yeah. I also said it could do #B, and sometimes #C. Didn’t you plan or position for those outcomes too?
Bitcoin recently is a good example. It didn’t follow through on my preferred path, which is just the one I thought was more likely. But so what? I still bought back a good amount at $64k after going 100% cash at $94k (avg), because guess what, option #B possibility was gaining traction.
That’s the point. It’s not about the prediction. Your social clout does not build your portfolio.
Sadly, most inexperienced players can’t even make money when their prediction comes true because they’re so consumed with being right that they never properly think about positioning, risk, or what they’ll do next.
“Oh, so you’re just covering every base. Could go up, could go down.”
No shit. That’s exactly the point.
I don’t want to be surprised. I want to be positioned to get the best possible outcome across all viable scenarios.
Stop becoming so attached to one idea that you get trapped inside it. Think and trade in possibilities, be early enough and push harder when an outcome becomes clear.
Yes, you’ll give up some upside to maintain that flexibility. That’s the cost. But you’ll still participate when you’re right and you’ll be protected when the market chooses one of the other paths.
The goal isn’t to predict but be prepared to capture.
"I can't" closes doors. "How can I?" opens new possibilities. The next time you catch yourself saying "I can't'" pause and rephrase it as "How can I?" Your mindset will shift from limitations to solutions. Tiny shift, massive impact!
The ideal mindset:
- Compete but don't compare
- Observe but don't absorb
- Connect but don't attach
- Desire but don't chase
- Act but have faith
- Want but don't need
- Feel but don't dwell
- Plan but live in the "now"
There is no one to impress, do it for yourself, enjoy the process, if you have enough patience, you will look back in ten years, and realize you went far beyond what you thought you could achieve, and that things only started to connect once you "gave up" and started to relax.
you should never worry about what the next guy is doing
its a waste of energy
make your money, hit the weights, stick to your plan and mind your business
keep your focus on you
I turn 43 this year, and here's some honest, tough-love advice for people in their 20s.
1: If you have a comfortable job, you're doing it wrong.
2: Your designer degree from an overpriced university is overrated for 99.99% of career fields.
if you set a goal…
and you calibrate your whole life towards it
i mean literally everything you do
the time you wake up, what you eat, what you do, the content you consume, who you talk to
and all your focus is on achieving that one thing
there’s no chance you’ll fail
like 0%
and it’s going to happen quicker than you think
your 20s are the only time you can screw up and society won't judge you for it
you won't have that luxury in your 40s
shoot as many shots as you can now
you just need to get it right once
and then you’re set for life
go.