Matt Hay

Ex-weatherman, mountain leader and aspiring author. Put the planet first and the rest will follow.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

I'm an unapologetic advocate of reintroducing wolves to the Highlands but acutely aware how culturally difficult that will be and how much would have to change, land management wise, for co-existence to work.

But it's nice to dream, eh? So I did just that https://t.co/kGMw8eafk5

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@theiaincameron No ropes required, Iain? One axe or two? And how did you know there wouldn't be a big cornice at the top.

Only asking because it's a winter ascent I'd love to emulate one year.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@DeeWardRottal Sounds like they're linnets. Wonderful work, Dee. I'd love to see a bit more upland arable. Our ancestors had pockets of cropland in every glen...to the benefit of birds, small mammals and countless insects.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK EC46 not worth the digital paper it's printed on. Just look at what it was forecasting three weeks ago

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@peacockreports Likely to come about above average temps overall?

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK I feel more bullish than you about the second half of December.

sPV isn’t going to be above average strength, some signs it won’t couple effectively to the tPV and lots of telecons in our favour.

Could be spot on with peak cold around Xmas time. We shall see.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK Thanks very much! What influences whether and to what extent the sPV and tPV couple?

Does the fact this wave was reflected suggest things are not conducive for linkage between the two?

Interesting that even with strat zonal winds only average for the ToY it can still dominate.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK Final point. Do you think the models’ inability to forecast the tPV at sub-seasonal timescales makes a mockery of the whole sub-seasonal forecasting business?

ECM monthlies will be way off what they were predicting a month ago, because of the primacy of the tPV.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK I'm always baffled by why NWP doesn't predict these dynamics?

Surely trade winds are part of what should feed into predictive forecasts about the MJO/ longitudinal progression of tropical convection?

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@theiaincameron It’s what we dream of

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK Scandi highs always worry me. The WAA required to build them nukes cold to our north and if there is then too much energy for them to be truly high latitude we end up with uninspiring SE’lies.

For me it’s a good strong HP to the NW/N that delivers. Much like the past cold snap!

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@Met4CastUK So what’s the next period of interest on your radar?

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@DeeWardRottal @LesleyRiddoch @ChrisGPackham Agree with your sentiment, Dee. But there was likely far more native woodland and scrub when the Romans were in Scotland, several millennia ago. Also wolves, bears, beavers, boar, possibly aurochs and probably lynx.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@judah47 Why are they called Rex blocks?

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@CarlBovisNature Goshawk

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@herdyshepherd1 I disagree. Rewilding is simply an aspiration to make a system more 'wild', i.e. reinstate as many natural processes as are feasible, practicable, legal, etc.

You are rewilding by returning cattle to your land in greater numbers - the direction of travel is the important bit.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@peacockreports We’ll be in with a shout at one of the driest on record if the latest ECM run verifies !

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@stuartpengs Couldn’t agree more. Plus it’s likely going into bioenergy not food.

[Matt Hay @matthay44]

@numenini Brilliant thread, what a treat for you!