Personalized Arxiv feed
I built a system that allows you to create a personalized feed or search over recent listings. I use a two tower architecture with a preference model and a re-ranker.
https://t.co/92kDbSIHZu
I hate windows so Microsoft is out. Really miserable considering Apple and Linux.
I recently upgraded to a Mac for the first time in my life and it is very nice. Apple hardware is pretty good but the software is kind of annoying. They've done great at extracting and defending their moat but there is no real ecosystem growth.
I use Google Login for everything and pixel phones. They're lagging but I think Google is the most well rounded and best capitalized going forward. Really difficult to commit to someone else without accepting pretty steep limitations. Google is setup well here and hasn't been afraid of expanding the ecosystem even if rollouts are lacking vs the best in class. Maybe you give up peak in specific sub categories but Google is the least annoying across every ecosystem sub category.
@leothecurious@_ueaj To be more precise it would solve for the task alignment gate function for which it could then make this decision to de-align on newer iterations. Self-improving and successor ASI are the same thing functionally
Is it possible to spot a good forecast by its rationale?
We used LLMs to score the reasoning behind 55,000+ forecasts and test the link between forecast accuracy and written rationales.
We found that:
• Causal reasoning is much more prevalent than statistical argumentation
• It's easier to identify poor forecasters rather than excellent ones
• Human ratings of rationale quality can be unreliable.
🧵A thread on the results:
@robinhanson I can't read the full article but the hantavirus outbreak is more an indication of market behavior overriding prediction (which is expected). Which is kind of the point of the article but should be highlighted explicitly (apologies if it is later)
Well that's the heart of the problem. Globally neutral from human to deer (animals in general) does not seem to be "extremely odd" to me in terms of the emotional feel of neutral. Culture appears as a relatively small perturbation unless you are already considering constrained space in which case sure you can create a relativistic "extreme" but you are now already greatly constrained so this extreme feels disingenuous
@theandrewsiah A lot of these are for power users which train the automatic system. I'm not a user enough of these but I am a user enough to see it getting implemented behind the scenes