Matthew

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Buy fear. Sell greed.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

🫡🫡🫡🫡🫡

[Space Investor @SpaceInvestor_D]

I bought $RKLB at $3.5
I bought $ASTS at $17

I'm telling you too, $RDW is one of those hidden gems in the space industry.

IYKYK 🤝

[Matthew @matttoffline]

@KevInvestingYT Where does one sub?

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Find the person who chooses you. First, second, always, forever.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

I wouldn’t normally do this, but if it you make you happy, I’d love to.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

For you, I would.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Four simple words when someone matters enough to make you reconsider your preferences.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Best space opportunity imo

[Rich Peter @peterli34923561]

$RDW --- In its Q1 2026 earnings report disclosed in May, $RDW posted $96.97 million in revenue, surging 57.9% year-over-year. Even more impressive, driven by an industry-leading 1.92 book-to-bill ratio, the firm’s contracted order backlog rocketed to an all-time high of $498.1 million. Management also confirmed its identified commercial pipeline stands at a massive $10 billion addressable opportunity.

On May 20, $RDW secured a $15 million follow-on order from the U.S. Army’s 1st Aviation Brigade for Stalker Uncrewed Aerial Systems (UAS), slated to support advanced operator training programs.

On May 19, $RDW captured a sizable multi-year prime contract to supply next-generation Penguin Mk3 tactical drones to an undisclosed NATO member state. The dual awards demonstrate Redwire’s revenue-generating capabilities stretch far beyond space hardware into multi-domain intelligent defense systems.

1.Core Beneficiary of the Golden Dome Missile Defense Program

Per the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s (MDA) rolling program roadmap, the Golden Dome homeland missile warning and interception initiative represents a colossal $542 billion total addressable market. Initial procurement funding alone is projected to hit $25 billion, and Redwire is a key supplier of core assemblies plus optical and radio frequency (RF) subsystems for the defense architecture. Phased funding disbursements rolling out through H2 2026 will directly convert into forward revenue streams for $RDW.

2.Agnostic Enabling Infrastructure That Avoids Launch Segment Price Wars

The space sector is saturated with brutal price competition among rocket launch operators and satellite constellation builders. Yet every satellite headed to orbit requires Redwire’s flagship Roll-Out Solar Array (ROSA) power systems — the technology that supplies power to the International Space Station and countless commercial satellites — alongside specialized space RF antennas and digital space engineering simulation tools. It operates as an indispensable cross-platform enabler, collecting recurring hardware revenue regardless of which launch provider deploys payloads.

3.Massive Valuation Discount vs. Peer Space Players Like SpaceX
As outlined by value-focused Wall Street aerospace analysts: against a backdrop where SpaceX’s rumored valuation tops $1.78 trillion with an elevated price-to-sales (P/S) multiple, $RDW trades at just ~6x forward P/S, offering compelling value. With the company on track to swing to positive adjusted EBITDA across 2026–2027, the stock faces powerful upward re-rating pressure on its valuation multiple.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

👀🤠

[Serenity @aleabitoreddit]

That’s a misconception:

$SIVE is the laser supplier for next gen architectures, not just CPO scale up.

Pluggable, scale out CPO, scale up CPO, NPO, etc.

- Sivers and $JBL went god-mode and developed 1.6T optical transceivers with CW lasers.

Effectively designing around the EML bottlenecks, and even made things more power efficient.

From quotes from Jabil management they created a “relatively dramatic moat”.

So for the next gen of 1.6T pluggable transceivers, Sivers seems immediately used.

Markets missed this nuance too: after Jabil’s announcement, other pluggable players reached out, and SIVE is working with them now (prob codevelopment, qualification stage).

There’s not too many players that build optical transceivers that aren’t vertically integrated like Lumentum (think: Innolight/eoptolink, and maybe others).

So these are active developments, just not public material yet and could be a new press release anytime.

- for CPO scale out which happens H2 2026 onward like $POET, $SIVE is a laser supplier for those players.

- scale up CPO is h2 2027, from Ayar and Nvidia’a NVLink CPO ecosystem and that’s the main volume ramp across optical players.

But this is where $SIVE looks like they mog every other player from supply chain mapping.

Since they’ve likely been working + designed in with $MRVL Celestial, Lightmatter, Lightelligence and the others since they were small way back when.

On top of things like this:

For foundries like $GFS, $SIVE is the reference laser.

Not even including massive companies like O-Net building ELS with $SIVE, likely for the Asian hyperscalers supply chains.

This is why $SIVE is by far my favorite laser chokepoint long.

Feels like they’re everywhere in new optical architectures starting beginning of 2027.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Sometimes solitude is the best company.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Melt up summer?

[Matthew @matttoffline]

You vs You

[Matthew @matttoffline]

1 month turned into 2, 2 turned into 8. I haven’t looked back since.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Thought of the day: I think we underestimate how difficult it is to find true genuine partners.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Finishing a workout or run before 8am will teach you how much time you actually have in a day.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Looking better at 36 than you did at 22 is exactly the flex you think it is.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Enjoy being in the process of becoming. Things take time.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

If you pray for flowers, don’t be surprised if it starts raining.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Like clockwork

[Prof @TheProfInvestor]

Everyone is bullish this week.

And but 90% of them sold last week due to internal fear

" I dont trust it "

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Lock tf in

[Chris @StonkChris]

Trump celebrating his 80th birthday with a peace deal to end the Iran conflict, just ahead of Sunday futures opening and before UFC 250's "Freedom Fights" at the White House.

Love him, hate him, or fall somewhere in between, few politicians understand timing, optics, and execution quite like Trump.

[Matthew @matttoffline]

Avoid the false dopamine hit of telling your goals to others.