@jameslavish has not yet hit the senior lenders. In most cases, cash traps and / or equity top ups are being demanded. Distress may be coming but it is certainly not the banks problem yet. I appreciate the WFH culture is very different in the US and that will hit values for offices harder.
@jameslavish Hi James, long time no speak. Interesting thread 🧵. How levered are the landlords that took out loans from regional banks on average in the US? In the U.K., the problem mostly sits with the equity for now. Average senior debt leverage of 55-60% means the c. 20 %drop in values
@catabrit Totally agree. If I’m honest, usually train during normal hours but it’s absolutely a great feeling to feel like you’re grinding while the world is asleep. Catch when you are back mate!
@danheld Expressed in another way, in one year Bitcoin lost ~ 1trn USD of market cap that it took 12 years to build. Impressive and scary in equal measure.
@TheRealPlanC It’s reputation was damaged last year I think. It is ultimately just data analysis as you say, however the disproportionately bullish leaning that formed the backbone of some pricing prediction models in 2021 (that failed catastrophically) has undermined its status for many.
@100trillionUSD@BFairclough23 Scarcity rules in the long term but Bitcoin cannot escape the grips of Macro in the short term. That has been well and truly demonstrated by now.